4 Words For The Day - Coastal Blahs/Future Hopes

Photo above of the sun blocked by a palm and the other looks like some version of a Bird of Paradise

Recommend clicking to enlarge.

This won't be a hard one so I'm leaving it brief. Just look outside. See those clouds if you're along the east coast...probably fewer further west too? Well..that's today. Anywhere from partly cloudy to mostly cloudy with only mid-lower level clouds, mostly cumulus and stratocumulus will be the rule of the day with a slight chance of a barely detectable sprinkle possible about anytime, although attm (at this time) it looks most likely to occur between 1-3pm and again around dark.

The wind will become a prevailing easterly breeze all day leaving the coast the coolest area. In fact, with all the clouds along the coast temperatures probably won't be much warmer than yesterday with a high in the 79-82 degree range.

Okay, that's the Coastal Blah part. Now for the fun Future Hopes.

Those hopes involve, if you can believe it, the tropics. There are hints there could be development of a system anywhere between the western tip of Cuba to Puerto Rico along a 200 mile wide swath anytime between Friday and for a good 10 days after that! So keep your eyeballs pealed open at all times and do not, I repeat, hit the coffins just yet for a sustained period because we must be watching at all times. L:-).

Already two separate models are either showing development off the western tip of Cuba with a TS or perhaps a good old 'cane moving toward Miami on or around day 10 while another further out is showing a system near Puerttthhco in about 2 weeks.

In other words, about anything can happen. But truth be told, it's going to be a battle between how far south the southern jet stream branch makes it and how strong the pseudo-Bermuda High will be. So there are so many unknowns it's ridiculous. IMHO..the next 5 days will reveal to us whether things will get active or not. If the stream gets too far south with this next approaching south...then we'll have to wait about a week for the area to recover ...so we could be talking about maybe around the 25th when another chance comes around.

For today...enjoy (how profound).

Warming To Begin

(above: a "Bird of Paradise")

Looks like the onshore flow has begun with temperatures now on a fairly rapid moderating trend. As of 2am the temperature is 58F here, but much colder inland and most other locales further from the coast the whole way down to Lake Okeechobee or even Naples.

Today, with the onshore flow and partly cloudy sky we should warm to around 76 degrees. Then tonight should only get down to about 65. Each day will be successively about 3-4 degrees warmer on both ends with a very slight chance of east coast showers under continued easterly flow, but no thunderstorms and not much accumulation (if any even occurs).

By Friday and into the weekend an approaching front will bring increasing chances or even a thunderstorm, but the front should barely slide through. In the long range I'm watching for the possibilities of remnant Hurricane Rick to bring in a good chance of storms around next weekend, but that is so far off it's strictly optimistic speculation at this point.

Cool and Dry One for Sunday

The mouse mat for paws with the mouse pointing to our next system ;- )

Looks like the 850mb trough has just cleared the area setting up for the full fledged "Cold" Blast to move in todaywith a low temperature this Sunday morning around 53 and a high of about 72.

The good news is, is that it will be very short lived. By Monday morning the winds will have started to swing around to the NE giving the immediate east coast a good warming with a low near 59-62...and a high near 77 and the trend will continue. The only fly in the ointment is that with the wind shift may come coastal showers...but only very light. That is generous too...but the possibliy will exist even more so Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

Photos Of FLorida Fall...LOL

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Stephen Sponsler (vortex2@brevard.net)
High Speed Dirt Blog: http://highspeeddirt-steve.blogspot.com/
Cape Canaveral, FL \/
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Heat Is The Word Of The Day

(above photos: seagulls and beachgoers)

The title of today's post might be a little misleading for those living along the coast. If the sea breeze kicks in like it did yesterday by 1pm then the immediate coast shouldn't be any warmer than it's been the past week. It's the inland areas that will feel the pinch today, tomorrow, Friday, Saturday, Sunday.......ad naseum....with the high temperature flirting with near record levels, which really isn't saying all THAT much considering we just finished summer, and we're pretty used to the heat anyway. But just as a CYA...if we don't get the sea breeze expect a high around 94, but again...I think we'll get one that will penetrate no further west than between US1 and I-95.

Well actually, the coast could get pretty darned hot too on Saturday. All this because we have stacked high pressure centers over the state creating some tremendous subsidence and compressional heating. However, the high at the lower levels should start to shift off to the east during the course of the day which will allow the diurnally driven sea breeze to develop. The front that was across north central portions of the state yesterday has all but died a painless death...it's tail end waved good bye last night right at sunset as cloud cover started to clear and shower/storm activity developed down by Lake Okeechobee.

Looks like that will be about the only area to see precipitation today as well..if even that. Overall, it looks like a dry one across the boards. I'm not even going to give potential sea breeze / land breeze developing storms a plug on this one, as dry air aloft has really moved in and the possibility simply does not exist. At least not currently. Saturday might be the hot one right along the coast though as another front will be trying to impinge on home territory and the high pressure center will be well off to the ENE by a couple hundred miles at least, thus we could end up being minus a sea breeze.

As suspected yesterday, despite what the one model was advertising as far as a frontal passage is concerned does not appear to be a reality; however, it does appear that we will see a wind shift for 36-48 hours to the NE and ENE as high pressure sneaks in from the west by early next week, but that will be short-lived as another series in the train of frontal systems approaches and the veer on around to the south...none of which will cool us down...at least not in the short to mid term.

Full Fledged Summer is Back With a Vegeance

The frontal system that was in North Florida yesterday has moved a little further south and will make it to a Tampa to Cocoa Beach line before washing out altogether by mid-late afternoon. It looks like a weak sea breeze should set up by 4pm about the same time that thundershower activity should approach as well. Actually, it looks like our rain chance will be a little earlier today than in our last two little 'events' of the past week. It could be as soon as 3pm...or at least there will be activity spreading eastward reaching the coast from Daytona and points south after 2:30pm...with the greatest possible impact between 4:30pm - 7pm. It will be a hot one today..but even hotter tomorrow so hold on to your sunscreen and iced tea.

All in all, storm activity does not appear that it will be especially strong due to warm air aloft, but that air was there yesterday and we still squeezed out some off shore lightning after 7:30pm...and the potential looks greater today with the boundary so close to the area.

The next front is right on this front's heals, and is currently forecast to shove thru on Thursday. However, some of the latest model runs haven't come in yet so I'm not hanging my hat on that one just yet. It is tempting to though given the very progressive weather pattern the lower 48 is in right now with the upper level westerlies just ripping across the country's mid-section from coast to coast. But we can leave that for tomorrow's post. But for now, it is worth mentioning that if the front does do what it is forecast to per last night's run, then it will be through with no real temperature change but will put a major damper on shower activity for Thursday and Friday..with the weekend seeing return moist southerly flow and showers...could be fun!

Thunderstorms Making A Surprise Come Back?!

(I don't know what kind of bloom this is..but it smells buttery sweet!)

Ah yes...the sun is shining nicely shortly before noon today, and that's a good thing if you want it to rain late today or tonight? That might sound odd, but it's a good thing (for that to occur). With good, unfiltered sunlight, the land mass will heat up nicely today and set up for a sea breeze this afternoon, which earlier was questionable. However, even with the current south winds it has an onshore component out here on the Cape. The big fly in the ointment for today is how much moisture can we work into the 700mb layer..which is still quite profoundly dry. With a better sea breeze we have low level wind convergence with the prevailing SW flow aloft...giving rise to the air at the low levels (convection). Other than the dry slot aloft...we are Good To Go for some 'boom booms' very late today and tonight.

A frontal boundary remains 'dormant' across the extreme northern panhandle at this time, and will remain there until it gets a good push from the next system to move into the Plains mid-week...at which point it will be shoved south by Thursday morning. But in the meantime, other than that little dry slot...we are set up for thunderstorms today through Wednesday..most assuredly (speaking) for Tuesday. Today is just sort of the 'warming up' to the idea period...if the atmosphere will succumb to such thoughts that is.

But for today, model data is all in agreement that it will be the east coast from the Cape and points south along I-95 and points east and around the Big Lake that will have the best chances of a storm. For the Cape area it looks like it will be almost any time is possible after 5pm...well into the night. Doesn't mean it actually will rain, but the potential does exist. So for those lightning photographers this could mean some good news is in the offing for this evening. And in the meantime, pull out the iced tea and sunscreen, coz it's going to be a warm one, especially tomorrow with 90 degree temperatures over most all of central and southern Florida.

About the only effect the front will have either late Wednesday or overnight into Thursday will be to shift the wind around to the northeast and dry out the overall air mass with shower activity restricted to the most southern areas near the Lake. But there are hints that ample moisture might reside regardless for some coastal nocturnal showers, so I'm not jumping on the "all's clear" bandwagon just yet! Stay tuned to your official forecasts for the latest until tomorrow's post.

Summer Part II Has Arrived (Minus the Storms)

(this pink flower hibiscus was the only one of the batch. All the others are white)

The title for today sums it up. The high temperature has risen to the 90 degree mark for 3 straight days (or very close to it) with no change in sight for the next week. Unfortunately, the ritualistic thunderstorms are not in the offing until at least Thursday. And even then they will be very far and few between. High pressure will hold fast between weak frontal passage attempts and during them as well. Meanwhile, things have picked up in the tropics with two tropical waves and a weakly organized area of low pressure, but I'm not coming out of the coffin for any of this activity unless we see some very significant changes in the upper level pattern down this way. And like our forecast is indicating, no such changes are in in sight.

For now it's back to the A/C morning, noon, and night. Our low last night was 79 degrees. It's cooler inland of course, as it always is during the late night and early morning, but the ocean is still warm and greatly modifying the air in these parts. The air show is now over, and for the most part was pretty uneventful as far as air shows go. Nothing like the good old days at Hill Air Force Base in Utah.

How Much Can One Blurb (Blog) About Blue Sky?

("Bird of Paradise" in Canaveral)

Blue blue blue. That's all one can see when looking upward from Canaveral today. But if you can believe it, it actually rained overnight just to the west of here, in one report over an inch. Yet at 8am there wasn't a trace of it (in the sky) to be seen. I thought I saw something on radar at 6am upon awakening for a short time but figured it was ground clutter. Guess I figured wrong.

In any case, the weather seems to be running on schedule with no more hiccups to occur in the near term...at least thru the weekend. There is a teensy chance of a shower on Sunday but for now I'm forgoing the possibility along the immediate coast. Inland areas seem to have the best chance, and maybe around Tampa Bay later on Sunday. But probably not the 'thundery' type.

All in all, it still looks like an uneventful weekend weather wise..but plenty of events across the country such as the Air Show in Cocoa Beach, a boat show in the Tampa area, the OZtoberfest in Kansas, and the hot air balloon festival in New Mexico which will surely be 'advertised' on The Weather Channel.

Good News If You Like Nice Weather

(above: precipation totals for my location in Cape Canaveral..4.53")

The title of this morning's post sums it up. It won't be as cool as it was this morning (Cape Canaveral got down to 72 degrees) Friday morning...and we never broke the 70 degree mark as suspected. Just to the west (across the rivers) they did..but not along A1A here. The remainder of today and into the weekend will be characterized by a slight warming trend and dry weather.

Originally it was thought that yet another cold front would enter our region very late Friday which would affect the central portions of the state through Saturday, but things have changed. It now appears the parent low pressure system now near NW Missouri will loiter to the north and move into the Great Lakes while the appending cold front will elongate NE to SW and never make it here, very typical for this time of year. So the cool mornings will soon be a faded memory for what now appears a solid week, with little to no chance of rain.

A slight onshore wind regime along the east coast will moderate morning low and afternoon high temperatures, but inland areas will not receive (or really notice) this. They will be cooler in the mornings and warmer in the afternoons. In fact, along the east coast there will only be about a 10 degree temperature difference between early morning to mid afternoon temperatures by tomorrow and continuing into next week.

So all in all, it looks like a nice weekend for an air show, a boat show, or a day at the beach or the attractions.

Could It Be...A "Slight" Chance of Rain?

(tiger lilies by the pool)

The long advertised first front of the season is currently located between Daytona Beach on the east coast to just south of Cedar Key on the west side. All atmospheric parameters as far as instability and moisture differences sharply advertise the boundary which is slowly sinking south.

Interestingly, the NAM model has been indicating precipitation with the front along the east central coast by late this afternoon for 2 days now, and now the short range RUC model is doing so as well for the past few runs. It does not appear that the front will "blast" through by any means. In fact, it appears it will make it to a North Brevard - Tampa region by late afternoon and just sort of loiter around a bit before continuing its southward progression after sunset. So what does this mean for us?

Latest sounding data is of little use as the air mass is undergoing some gentle modification throughout the day and will be continuously changing. So based on satellite imagery, surface analysis, and model trends it appears that some form of rain should be included in this 'personal' afternoon forecast package especially from Orlando and points east to the coast and south to the shores of Okeechobee and Ft. Pierce. I was originally thinking that the forecasted precipitation would reveal itself as only enhanced mid-level clouds, but will now kick it up a notch to traceable amounts of rain...maybe measurable. However, it is with great hesitation. The front and its associated moisture may linger just long enough in these areas for moisture to amass and generate some of this rain.

Shortly after dark..or by 9pm it should be over for the central locales though..with the potential lingering until after midnight further south.

As for temperatures, interestingly the Melbourne area got into the upper 60s early this morning, while the coast near Canaveral was still in the mid-upper 70s. With the front going through a tad slower than earlier thought, don't think Wednesday morning temperatures will be all so outstandingly cool; that will wait until Thursday, and even still won't be too great. The biggest change for the late morning riser will be that afternoons will be a solid 5 degrees cooler and much drier through Thursday and into midday Friday.

The next front in the series will be taking shape over the Plains tomorrow and Thursday and will entire our picture by Saturday. Along with that will be increased moisture (humidity) and the chance of rain will again enter the picture. Not by humongous amounts, but it will be there.

For today, enjoy the afternoon and keep ones eyes glued to the WNW after the 3-4pm time frame until dark if your looking for those rain clouds.

Fall - Phase I - Has Arrived?

(this image shows some kind of "boundary" aloft passing over the aparment stretching east-west)

If a water vapor image tells a thousand words, then the old phrase holds true. Much drier air aloft is already overhead, and even drier air resides in extreme North Brevard knocking at our door. At the surface, the dewpoint has dropped below 70 degrees for the first time in who knows how long (I would probably suffice it to say since April though as a wild guess...or maybe early May).

All in all, today will be a dry one with no change in the ambient outside air temperatures. After sunset and into early Tuesday morning it will be the very immediate coast that will notice the change with the drier air and a light westerly wind component. As of shortly before noon today the wind even veered to the NW, an indication that indeed a front has passed. It currently resides from a Palm Beach to Ft. Myers line and probably won't make it much further south during the day. And yet another front is waiting on its heels for post-noontime tomorrow. This will be the second half (Phase II) of falls arrival with an accompanying drop in temperature as well.

The models are continuing to show a chance of rain to accompany the second front after noon tomorrow along the central east coast, but as of now I have extremely low confidence of any such animal to make an appearance. Most likely what is showing as precipitation by the models will manifest itself as a band of short lived mid-level cloudiness.

Open the windows Tuesday night before going to bed because unless one likes it really REALLY cool inside with the A/C cranked up it should be cool enough for the meekest of souls to bear. I'm holding true to yesterday's temperature forecast other than it's possible that everyone other than those living within 3 blocks of the beach will fall below 70 degrees. Coldest temperatures will be on the west side of the state from Punta Gorda north, especially 5 miles or more away from the Gulf of Mexico. The warmest morning lows in the state will be found along and east of A1A from Cape Canaveral south.

Looking into the future a bit, we can rest on our haunches for a while as far as anything spectacular weather wise to occur. At least until Saturday. The local air mass will undergo a very slow modification starting Friday with no more fronts poised to impact us until at least early NEXT week...if even that. Often these first fronts are more like a friendly gesture to remind us the summer is over, but fall still has some biding to do..but don't forget 'it'...because sure enough it will be here for the long haul sooner than you think!

Summery Hot...and Maybe Even Wet Today

Several changes are in store for east central Florida the next two days starting with last night. Overall steering has finally shifted from being easterly as it has been for at least two weeks to being from the west. The change occurred as expected late Saturday and was heralded by some brief rain after midnight. Those steering currents will remain in place the remainder of this week, at least until Friday.

For today, a cold front is currently located from around Jacksonville to Cross City. This front will sink into Central Florida during the course of the day then slide off to the east with no impact temperature wise. Ahead of the front the air mass is still pretty 'wet'...and with probably no sea-breeze today things will heat up into the low 90s, even along the coast. There is currently some scattered shower activity ahead of the frontal boundary along the west half of the state which will translate eastward during the course of the day. We might not wait for the leading edge of this precipitation to reach us for rain chances to pick up a notch. With all the heating and ample moisture in place, expect at least some widely scattered activity to develop in the 12:30-1:30pm time frame along the east half of the state (there is a caveate to this as noted in the next paragraph). Activity will then become more 'full blow' in the 3pm time frame and last until after sunset, mainly east of the I-4 corridor.

There seems to be a brief, relatively dry slot of air aloft currently over the area which may off set rain chances for a time early in the afternoon, but this should be gone after the more full blown chances move in from 3pm onward. I don't believe this front will actually make it through the area, but rather wash out completely over us; however, somewhat drier air will user in behind it for a time over night tonight and through Monday.

Then fall, or a hint of it, arrives late Tuesday in the form of yet another cold front. At this time, it appears the front will pass through East Central Florida mid-afternoon Tuesday...to be followed by yet drier air in earnest, northerly winds, and slightly cooler temperatures, especially during the overnight hours where "window opening weather" may very well be possible Tuesday and Wednesday nights at bedtime. But don't expect anything earth shattering, just cool enough to do that for the brave at heart (or with a tolerance for sleeping in low 70s weather). High temperatures will be in the mid-80s but with the air being so much drier, the change will be noticeable. The areas west of the I-4 corridor will see the biggest morning cool down as far south as Sarasota with temperatures into the mid-upper 60s. Actually, the more that I think about it...areas west of U.S. 1 may very well break the 70 degree mark. It's the immediate coastal area, surrounded by warm water on all sides, that will feel the least impact from this change in the weather. It's always the "very" immediate coast that is the last to feel true fall weather as a rule anyway...due to the surrounding warm water which takes quite a while to modify.

Anyway, the front may again provide for a shot of rain Tuesday afternoon, restricted to the eastern peninsula south of Daytona Beach where some lingering moisture may reside. But this front will shove even that possibility out to sea in its wake until at least late Friday.

On Friday and during the course of the week thereafter a moderate zonal (west to east) steering flow will reside across much of the south half of the continental U.S. with a fairly active pattern running along the jet stream across the Northern Plains...the Great Lakes..and the Northeast U.S.

The first of these systems may make a brief dip south into the Central Plains providing a shot of severe weather mostly over Kansas and Nebraska and maybe western Iowa late this Wednesday through Thursday, although northeast Okalahoma can't be discounted.

Florida may be intermittently affected by the extreme southern tip of a system or two, but for the most part our weather along the east coast will be dictated by a weak, shallow onshore flow after Friday which will modify the drier air mass to normal moisture levels. Not sure if this moisture will stretch deep enough up into the atmosphere though to induce coastal showers starting late Friday and into next week...but that's still 5 days away.

Fall Will Creep In (If You Can Call It That)

(Delta II blasts off Friday at 8:10am from Cape Canaveral AFS)

I didn't leave a blog post yesterday...as there was no need to with the ever continuing prevalent nice weather on tap. It was perfect weather for the Delta II launch though. Today, no difference, although some gentle changes are in store beginning tonight through Tuesday which will be fun to monitor from a meteorological aspect, although from the weather watcher stand point it won't be very exciting (except maybe tomorrow as noted below). As of this writing, the latest model data has not come in yet, but I'm not expecting any earth shattering new info, so decided to go ahead and post anyway.

High pressure that has been dominant across the center of the state the past many days will sink to south Florida during the course of the day and be located near the southern tip of the state shortly after sunset. In response to this the steering currents will shift from the east to being from the west by around sunset tonight and then be prevalent through Wednesday from that direction. A surface cold front will sink Sunday from extreme North Florida into the Central peninsula during the course of the day which will be our only real rain chance mechanism for a shower or thunderstorm for many days to come as it lingers near the area during the afternoon. Anything that forms along this boundary will be shoved toward the east coast.

This front will linger just along or south of the area by late Sunday until a reinforcing shot hits on Tuesday and pushes the whole shebang south toward the Florida Keys by Wednesday morning. It will be Wednesday and Thursday mornings that we will see our first 'coolish, dryish' mornings of the fall season. That meaning a low temperature between 72-75 degrees and relative humidity below 75%...not saying much, but it is a change :-). It is the western half of the state that will feel the bigger temperature change, but not by much.

The folks on the west side of the state today might not see the big rains they've been receiving the past several days. Believe that as the steering currents shift, there will be a sea-breeze collision set up along the western interior, and it's likely that is where most of the rain will remain today..mostly from Lake down to Polk County..then along the western shores of Lake Okeechobee. As the steering currents start to shift tonight the extreme west coast from Sarasota north might be prone to nocturnal and early morning showers into Sunday though, which will be interesting to monitor.

All in all, by late Tuesday through the end of this upcoming week it appears it will be dry with lows in the mid-upper 70s and highs in the mid-80s. Onshore flow beginning Thursday afternoon will lead to moderate temperature rise to nearly the levels they've been the past few days. That far out, rain chance forecasting would be strictly tongue in cheek to be perfectly honest, so no point in trying this far out.

Water OFF..Water ON..Water OFF...Water ON

(Above: "Gold Sunshine")

The atmosphere over the Atlantic nearshore waters and the land mass are just not cooperating in tandem to produce the desired precipitation along much of East Central Florida. Of course, if you don't want it to rain it's golden sunshine. Current morning data at first glance seems to reveal all the answers for the day...while the models are showing a different story altogether.

So this forecast will have two options : (1) A blend of what current data shows, the models, and past days trends...or (2) what my gut tells me.

(1) Current data shows that the atmosphere is very well saturated up to above 700mb with the driest air residing right on or above the surface. However, water vapor imagery shows much drier air throughout the layer has moved in since after midnight despite what the fairly recent sounding shows and this drier air expends well out into the Atlantic. Expect this 'drier air' reside mostly just well aloft and shouldn't be much of a factor (3) Some models indeed pick up on the drier early day period..but all agree that it will only last until early afternoon. So based on the models one is lead to believe that this drier air is short lived at the very low level..and by very early afternoon will be replaced by rainshowers moving onshore. However, by that time the true sea-breeze will have become established and washed out all hopes of such occurring.

(2) With all said and done, it is with great hesitation that I'm led to believe that east central Florida will receive little to no rain today despite what the model runs are showing. Interestingly, the drier air aloft is currently over much of the peninsula except extreme south. Models do show that rain chances will begin somewhere in the 2-3pm time frame west of the spine of the state and this leading 'voundary' will collide with a light onshore /Gulf Breeze after 5pm which shouldn't make it much more than about 10-20 miles inland. By that time whatever dry air is in place there now will likely have moved out. The caveate for the east coast is that models are still hinting at precipitation for even after the onset of the seabreeze. Whether this is just an anomoly or a sign of a change in the pattern of late will have to be seen. If indeed there has been a change, then the east coast could see afternoon rainshowers, but this would be a pretty big change, and I'm not willingly to jump into that pool yet without testing the waters. But leave it at this, if it does by any chance happen to rain today, it should be between 12:30pm - 2pm.

West coasters can hope for another shabang very late today...but just exactly where is not so written in stone as it has the past few days. Could be almost anywhere...as the story unfolds.....

"Freddie"'s Back

(photographers capture a Canaveral morning moment at sunrise)

The ashes of Fred have finally arrived as discussed yesterday. The first sign occurred last night around 10pm when the Canaveral area received just under 1/2" of rain in short order. Since that time most of the rainfall has been focused over the southern half of the county, but there's more in store for the rest of the day.

For today, the inverted trough axis is currently situated along the western Brevard County area with a heap of moisture waiting in its wings over the Atlantic. Shower activity extends beyond the scope of the radar. This activity will exist off an on throughout the day with partly to mostly cloudy skies.

The trough axis will continue to slide westward during the day and into the night and will be quickly followed by a ridge axis which now resides along the U.S. East Coast. Once that ridge axis becomes the dominating feature the rain will come to an abrupt halt. Timing as to when exactly this will happen is a bit sketchy, but it currently appears it will be by noon Thursday. After that rain/thunderstorm activity will be limited to the inland areas and along the West Coast.

As the ridge axis strengthens the west coast may even find it difficult to squeeze out some rain..but that's almost out of the range of a daily blog issuance, so will leave that discussion to a more appropriate time frame.

It still appears that a cold front is going to try to penetrate the Deep South during the beginning of next week. This front will actually come as a "backdoor" one...meaning it will sink in from the northeast rather than from west or northwest. There is a variety of potential resultant outcomes from a backdoor front being from benign to a rainfall event as can happen this time of year. But for now it appears the only affect will be to drop morning temperatures into the low-mid 70s for a day or two...with the west half of the state seeing the greatest cool down in the morning. That's still quite a way off, so to generate a full blown forecast for this time frame would be nothing more than adding more hearsay to the fire. Just keep a heads up come the Tuesday to Wednesday time frame.

Subtle Changes Are Occurring

*Above: Sunset Over the Banana River as Seen From Cape Canaveral

Somewhat subtle to nearly astounding changes have occurred overnight along the immediate east coast that are quite surprising, and it appears that additional surprises are in store.

First off, the KSC sounding indicated precipitable water to be nearly 2.1" today, a far cry from the 1.67" of yesterday (much more moist), and this moisture isn't limited to any one or two specific layers but rather the entire column. This means, no real capping dry air aloft. The problem for the near future (for those who actually want rain) is that a narrow band of drier air is looming just off the coast. The location and movement of that sliver has two potential impacts. (1) It will sit there and prevent showers from forming off shore and moving onto the coast, (2) it might shift over the area and prevent showers from either forming on the immediate coast or kill anything that moves in from the east. Hence, even though we are more saturated today we still may not see any rain, at least not until late this afternoon.

The dry slot is on the leading edge of an extra moist pocket of air (remnants of "Fred")...and this poses yet another complexity to the forecast. Most models are depicting this area to move into the Carolinas/Northeast Georgia, yet current water vapor loop and wind field analysis shows that this trend is not at all to what's actually occurring. In fact, it looks like the remnants have split..with the high level energy indeed moving into the Carolinas, while the lower level 'stuff' is moving dead west toward East Central Florida. I believe the dry slot off shore is subsidence ahead of this forward motion.

What this all means? The dry slot will either move over or remain just off shore and gradually dissipate during the day. The first hint of moisture from "Fred" will move in during the course of the late afternoon, with the bigger slug to arrive mid-afternoon Wednesday. For the most part all of this will mean little more than a slightly increasing chance of coastal rain showers on the east coast..while the West Coast's pattern remains unphased. It does appear that the bulk of shower activity on the West Coast will be from the immediate Tampa Bay area to just south of Ft Myers with most of it clinging around the Bay and south right along the coast. Inland areas away from both sides it appears will only receive remnant shower debris as a sea-breeze collision in the true sense does not appear to be a threat. However, given ample heating and destabilization lake-breeze /sea-breeze interactions are still possible especially in Lake County and around Lake Okeechobee. It currently appears that the moisture, as defragmented as it is, will arrive in 'waves' at any given time, so there is no specific time frame when one can predict it is most likely to rain. This will be the case from late this afternoon into mid-day Thursday.

Moisture levels will return to their lower levels along the east coast after mid-day Thursday and remain as such until an approaching cold front struggles into the Deep South and eventually Florida. But that's a new story for a new day in this weather log's entry.

Dorothy - The First Chaser

Photos courtesy of Jim Williams of
http://www.dryliner.org/

In recognition of the debut of "The Wizard Of Oz" in HD at a theater near
you!

Sunday In The Park

(remember what that is in the above photo?)

Today's weather along the East Central Florida Coastline this morning can easily be summed up as sunny and dry. Morning sounding came in dry at all levels except at the very lowest and a thin sliver in the mid-levels. The NAM model picked up on this trend, and as of this writing, was the only to have done so. Therefore, most of the day's forecast is hinged upon both that and latest water vapor / visible satellite imagery...speaking of which, water vapor does indeed show the area in a 'dry slot'...except maybe a few low Cumulus clouds this afternoon and some high cirrus with light-moderate onshore easterly winds this afternoon. Don't expect much anywhere in the area, including inland.

About the only place that looks like it could receive some rain today is along the immediate west and southwest Florida Coast from Tampa South. The upper air data from that area came in much more moist and the NAM picked up on that as well. It does show shower/storm activity in that area to commence after 2pm into the evening.

In fact, the NAM in the longer term continues to support this scenario for both Monday and Tuesday for the most part. Only exception being that the SE Florida Coast might see a slight increase in moisture late Monday with, I dare hesitate to say, "remnant" Fred other than giving whatever it is a name. Might as well starting naming every thunderstorm is about how relevant it is, but tropical discussion lovers would put a high nose up to such degradation of their adored creatures (I am a tropical weather forecasting lover myself, but let's face reality folks :-)

As always in such a flow pattern, with no outlying data resources available upstream in an easterly flow regime, changes to this pattern are most certainly possible within any given 12 hour time frame especially along the east coast.

Like a Long Playing Record Album....

(Above shows the recorded rainfall totals for my precise location so far this month as submitted to CoCoRAHS)

*(New Info: I've since updated some blog settings and can now immediately email any significant changes worth noting directly to the blog for auto-updates. Nifty)

Not breaking any records today...just sounding like one that keeps playing over and over again. And not much change in the future either so better like the song because otherwise it's going to drive you crazy. Just like any record, it has its share of nicks and scratches to provide barely detectable variety, but the same song is still playing.

Morning sounding again shows significant drying and warm air aloft at just about 10,000 feet at most with moisture trapped beneath it like steam under a layer of Glad Wrap. Over that there isn't much too work with either, so what that means is that based on the steering currents, activity will drift on shore and weaken as it does so into what will be just barely discernible rain showers up until maybe 3pm.

It's tempting to say the generic "after that the focus shifts inland" but I don't really see that inland will see anything at all today. There is a slightly better chance in the Tampa area from about 5pm-10pm, but after that this area will also meet the Grim Reaper for Rain.

Some folks are watching what was once Fred (what?! that thing is still around?)...and indeed one model brings the bulk of it's now hapless life-form smack dab into East Central Florida between Monday night and Tuesday morning. Whereas, another model leaves it even less identifiable and takes its ashes northward into coastal North Carolina. For now, I think the funeral occurred and is over for Fred and we'll see close to no change in the weather no matter which way it goes. I will say one thing though for those two models..it does make sense that if it goes further north it's even weaker than if it stays further south. But for now I'll have no problems putting the nightcap on and sleeping well and just plain forgetting the whole thing. Meaning that those who don't won't rain other than over night and early morning coastal showers should be delighted for at least the next week!

It's a stretch to forecast out that far, but given the time of year such patterns tend to entrench themselves quite vigorously and won't let go. In fact, unless something tropical comes this way we won't see any change at all until the first cold front of the season makes it here.

WHAT! Cold front?! That's right. It's getting to be that time. In fact, from all my experiences here we can get the first one sometime within the last week of September. The generic low temperature here for such occasions is 67 degrees. Don't ask me why, but there is something magical about that temperature. Used to love those days when I was in grade school. So excited about putting on one of those cozy sweaters in the morning before school, only to be roasting in it when it was time to come home that afternoon.

The "Lid" Has Elevated -- But Not Enough

Conditions are overall identical to yesterday over the Southeast U.S. in the large scale of things. The only thing different today for East Central Florida is that the strong cap has become a tad more elevated today, thus giving rise to more big puffy clouds that are growing a little more elevated.

However, the lid is just right up there a notch higher, but probably too low for clouds to produce in vertical extent enought for anything more than a barely detectable mist for a minute or two as they linger along the coast line into the early afternoon.

Conditions today will remain with these possible mists under otherwise partly cloudy skies. The chance of even a mist will be gone by 2pm though, as drier air aloft moves in.

Dream On - The Rain Gauge Is Forgetting How To Work!

What is it with the weather around here lately? Water, water everywhere..but not a drop in the old rain gauge bucket...sigh. And there is no change in the near term either.

A high pressure ridge axis still extends from the Appalachians southward across the eastern Florida peninsulas this morning. The KSC morning sounding hasn't shown up on the website; perhaps they decided it wasn't worth the hassle....just kidding. Nevertheless, based on what the models are showing...and what has transpired the past two days, I see no reason why the tune should change dramatically for today. It will take a Jeannie to change things.

Hence, expect another day like yesterday, although it might be a tad warmer.

Not so sure how well the west half of the state will fair though. They could still be in for some rain showers but actual STORMS will be lacking due to unfavorable upper level parameters: lack of appropriately colder air aloft and no lifting mechanisms such as positive vorticity advection. They will have slightly more moist air aloft, but that's it.

What first appeared may be a change by Friday does not look as likely now. In fact, it could be well into the beginning of next week before we see ample moisture at all levels to bring on the rain. And when it does, it will be coming off the ocean....which means it will be falling in the late afternoon into the mid-morning time frame of the next day.

So enjoy the sun and pack away the umbrellas...because summer thunderstorm season is over, not to say we still can't get them...but the 'season' is over for all intensive purposes.

Same Old Story, Same Old Song and Dance

This will be a brief post for today's entry due to the fact that there is no change to the forecast for east central Florida from yesterday. The set up of meteorological factors has changed little to none from yesterday's post. So if you want to know what that set up was scroll on down to it.

In full recap for today's weather though, no rain east of the spine of the state until one gets down to the extreme Southern tip of the state. West coast to see rain chances from Tampa area south and into the keys. The north and eastern parts of the state are being dominated by a nasty high pressure ridge extension poking south off the Appalachins and as far south as Lake Okeechobee, leaving the east half in it's stabilizing, northerly and dry stabilizing flow.

See no change for at least another day and possibly as long as 3 days. But things could change sooner than expected contingent upon what a 'yet to be seen' tropical wave may do. Thunderstorm threat though for East Central Florida appears to be non-existant today.

Tricky, Tricky

Interesting forecast challenge today. I've monitored the local forecasts and watched The Weather Channel, and have opted to go against the grain today as far as what our weather will be like. Here's the set up and my reasoning.

Low pressure centers over the Bahamas and Louisiana are no longer joined by a weak boundary but rather a low level ridge axis impinging south from the mid-Atlantic area is cutting that boundary in half right over east Florida. This ridge is acting as 'the great divide' at the lowest levels of the atmosphere and creating a relatively drier area just above the surface than the layers lower or above that along the east half of the state . The net affect is that as moisture gets working with the heat of the day and the air is lifted it will pass into this area and no longer be suitable for production of storms. The only area not succumbing to this predator is the extreme west half of the state and areas south of Lake Okeechobee.

Thus, for today I see no rain chance for the Space Coast other than maybe a large cloud that can put out some sprinkles. By late afternoon into early evening those storms that do get cranking up further west will spread out anvil debris in the more moist upper levels of the atmosphere, producing mostly cloudy skies (much like what happened yesterday).

And like was mentioned yesterday, I still don't see that chances of rain will increase for this immediate area until very late Wednesday and more likely Thursday. After that time, the chance for some real storms with colder air aloft seems to be in the cards at this time.

Beautiful Day In Store

(rainbow near sunset yesterday as seen from my apartment)

This morning a low pressure area resides about 200 miles offshore with a very weak, diffuse stationary boundary stretched westward from it and across the state which then joins another low in the north central Gulf of Mexico. This boundary will drop south of all of Central Florida today and usher in a northeast wind in its wake. Although there is still quite a bit of moisture in the atmosphere today, I believe that the wind across the ocean water will have somewhat of a stabilizing affect on any potential storms that could form today. Additionally, the mean steering currents will be from the northeast as well, so whatever rain falls today will have to come off the ocean.

There is a very small chance of a rain shower or increased cloud coverage in the 12pm -2pm time frame, but that chance is so small that it will have little effect on the day's events.

Tomorrow, at this point, looks like about the same story. It won't be until late Wednesday, when the low now in the northern Gulf starts to track northeast and drags the boundary back across us, now from the south, that juicier and more unstable air will penetrate the area. But the outcome of that still has two days to come to fruition so let's not jump the gun on that one yet. For now...enjoy a meteorlogically boring day.

Pictures From The Evening of the Morning Funnel

Pictures from today

Break Out The Galoshes

(photo: Thursday Morning at Sunrise Looking Over the Atlantic)

The weather scenario this morning from a purely meterological perspective is very exciting, but requires little elaboration as it is hoped that everything is fairly straight forward.

This mornings KSC Sounding (and a later 'special' launch) is painting a sporadically wet afternoon and early evening for almost all of East Central Florida. Although the atmosphere is totally saturated from ground to jet stream level there is little else going for us that would get something 'severe or strong' going. Additionally, based on the steering wind speeds, any prolonged heavy downpours will not sit in any one area for long. But rain chances appear to be very high nonetheless especially east of a north/south line running from Ocala to Okeechobee. Overall rain coverage at any one given time shouldn't be huge, but all persons east of that line have a good chance of experiencing at least a brief shower with big drops splotting down.,...and large rainfall amounts will be the result of repeated raindrop invasions.

Believe that with heating of the day that some of these 'showers' may also become lightning producers, and I wouldn't count out a waterspout either over the Atlantic, although winds might be too strong for that other than the strongest of spouts.

For Today: As of noon showers are already developing in the western fringes of the area outlined above, and are moving at a good 15-20mph clip toward the ESE. Coverage in the initiation area should continue and additional development can occur about anywhere else at the same time. By 3pm expect there will be some fast moving thunderstorms and lots of spotty rain showers across all of East Central Florida.

Not sure how late into the afternoon or early evening such prevalent conditions will exist, but it appears that before sunset the show will be over due to: 1) drier air aloft moving in 2) extensive cloudiness cutting off the instability supply 3) areas previously rained on will have stabilized and become unfavorable for further onslaughts.

Later Tonight and Tomorrow: The jury is somewhat hung as to what Monday will bring. But a few factors seem to be a given. The overall air mass will have dried out and the steering flow will be from the NW to NNW (not coming from a moisture source such as the Gulf or Atlantic). NW flow along east central Florida can be very interesting though if the right parameters are in place, but at this time I'd give us a 3 in 10 chance of such to occur. It could very well be a completely rain free day other than a few isolated storms, but as you know..it only takes one on your head to make it a rainy day.

Rain A Good Possiblity - But Storms May Be Lacking

(Infrared satellite imagery depicts the gloom already over the west coast and moving our way, slowly)

Most of the transitional changes have fallen into affect as they had begun in earnest early Friday evening and hit with a whack of 1.3" of rain over night in Cape Canaveral. This morning has begun with cloudy skies and a calm wind. Rain, some heavy at times, blankets much of the extreme western portion of the state, much to the chagrin of those in the Tampa area; hope those 'honey dos' are done, because they are in the muck for much of the morning.

For the east coast: I'm going to slide a glimmer of hope for the 'non-rainy' type folks today and mention right off the bat that the bark of the well advertised wet day to lay ahead might be worse than its bite. The surface boundary, weak and diffuse as it is, lays some where right across the center of the state and is saturated to the gills with moisture at all levels. The problem for the storm lover in me is that the temperature of the air aloft is not very cold and in fact a tad on the warm side at the lower levels, which is not conducive for rapidly rising columns of air (instability) which induces thunderstorms. Additionally, the strongest winds aloft are forecast-ed by weather models to be in the mid-levels then weakening higher up.

So what? This is what. Parcels of air that are trying to rise in an environment not fit for man or beast that encounter these stronger winds will be torn asunder before the can reach the higher, cooler ambient environment higher aloft, leaving them as kindred spirits spread amongst the winds. In other words, wimpy wimpy wimpy. Net affect is when the favored rainy area to the west works its way east toward the coast it is simply torn apart and weakened.

This means we'll have to leave it to the heating of the day and some cloud breaks to get things going with any respectability worth pulling a camera out for. What I foresee is simply a cloudy day...with the rain struggling to get here. It's going to be one those days where one will say "it's going to rain any minute"..and "any minute" can become hours. But once it's here, it will be here to stay for a while.

All things given, I'm thinking that activity along the eastern 1/4 of Central Florida will for the most part hold off until at least noon time..and in some areas as late as 4pm. Whatever activity that develops will be of mostly the 'rain' nature only, and not those horrific lightning and wind storms we all love so dearly. Shame.

The very near future is somewhat bleak for the sun-worshippers, so make those appointments at the tanning salon now. It might be days before there's a period of baking the skin in natural sunlight due to lots of high clouds.

Future Days like Sunday and on: It will be interesting to see what the net affect of what is being foreseen by the models...which should be mentioned..is not at all in agreement amongst those masses. It could be anywhere from rainy to partly cloud and actually pretty nice by Monday depending on which one you want to materialize the most. Unfortunately, the weather seldom is in the business of granting wishes, so we'll have to deal with what we're dealt. So hang in there, get some good video rentals and find some chores to do around the house. It's a good weekend for it.

Big Changes Begining Late Today

(small funnel cloud and accompanying rain showers from Thursday - 9/10/09)

Big changes are now occurring as was alluded to would happen today in Wednesday's post. The morning KSC sounding and forecast models are all gradually coming into agreement of this atmospheric transformation so some forecasting challenges are at hand.

Now and First 3/4 of Today: Latest sounding indeed shows that over the past 24 hours the easterly steering flow has become shallower and shallower. There is a shift of winds now just above 10,000 feet to a westerly component whereas the past couple of days that shift was up at 20,000 feet. It will continueto slowly lower during the day, but any impacts will not be realized until late today into tonight when it sets up in earnest. Meanwhile, the overall moisture content/depth has likewise increased as well as instability.

A weak surface boundary extends from a strong low pressure system off the New Jersey coast south and westward across South Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico joining the low pressure system that had been trying to form off North Central Cuba (which is now moving WNW). As this low moves further north the boundary will do so in tandem...impinging into the southern areas by very late today. I think the models are a little fast on the course of events, so we may see little impact of this today north of a Vero-Tampa line. If anything, it could be initially drier from points north of a Ft. Pierce to Sarasota line...but the change is coming.

Ocean showers are not really making it onshore today (unlike yesterday) due to the fact that the easterly steering flow is being begrudingly disrupted, and we are thus falling into a temporary nil-flow pattern until tonight. However, with ample moisture, instability, sea-breeze/lake breeze mergers, and the aforementioned boundary all in play today there will be storms today just north, along, and south of the boundary. Showers/storms will be limited to highly isolated until after 7pm further north and into the overnight.

Tomorrow (Saturday) looks to be an active day weather-wise, so I hope you got those "honey-dos" done. Break out the camera gear, the galoshes (do folks wear them in Florida?), and boot up the radar on the computer...never hurts to look at the sky too, because they'll all be needed by later today, tomorrow, Sunday...and from there the jury is closed.

Future evolution of this impending scenario will be described possibly as soon as later today if the changes become more evident or actually start to occur more rapidly than currently anticipated.

Fall Preview In Store Again Today

Lola Says "Watch the Weather Channel tonight between 7-10pm. I'm going to be on there"... . See look at her mouth...that's what she's saying.

Looks like today will be much like yesterday with even less chance of any rain along the east coast other than maybe a brief spritz before 2pm..and less chance to closer to none further inland by mid-afternoon. Looks like a little pocket of mid-level moisture will be around until mid-afternoon..after that it looks pretty dry with a stabilizing 'coolish' onshore flow off the Atlantic contributing to the 'dilemma' for instability...which should make about 99.9% of the general populace quite pleased. For the foolhearty who like to see some action amongst atmospheric molecules...the fights have been banned until the gates open again..which looks like it will be late Friday.

There is a variety of potential circumstances that could evolve for our chances of rain to increase relatively significantly (although I guess anything above a 5% chance could be considered significant at this point) come late Friday. So for now let's just leave it at that. Might as well enjoy the sunshine and cooler weather (below 90 degrees) for a day or two more and get the outside chores and "honey do" list tackled, because this weekend might not be so favorable unless one likes to mow the lawn in an airboat. Okay, that's stretching it, but you can get the gist.

Enjoy, and watch a good sunrise or sunset. At least we have those to enjoy! If you can't make it out to see a sunrise just watch the video link over on the right hand column where the sunrise picture is..click for the YouTube video.

Freddy no "Nightmare" and No Rain Today: "Reflections"

Fall, Fall Go Away

(pileus often seem to come in pairs)

Looks like fall fell in a harsh way as of Sunday. The first hints of the end of the thunderstorm season are now in full swing with a north north east wind this morning and sporadic moisture pockets aloft providing for various scattered clouds with very limited instability. Looks like this will be the scene for the next two days here in east central Florida. Doesn't mean we're out of the woods quite yet, but for now the immediate coast north of St. Lucie County looks like it will be spared thunderstorms for the next few days with only the most favored inland locations near Lake Okeechobee favored and possibly on the west coast from Sarasota and points south.

There is a chance we'll see some coastal ocean showers during the overnight and early morning hours beginning tomorrow though, but they will be very widely scattered at worst, with the potential of an increase in such activity on Thursday as a low pressure system over Central Cuba begins to morph northward.

Have a great Labor Day!