Chance of Isolated Thunder, Perhaps an Isolated "Strong" Event Near Coast

"MOURNING MOON AT 7"

 TODAY: No big surprises, namely that there ARE surprises which was expected. The image two below will depict what 'might' occur as the mid-level trough east of the Mississippi River would start to deepen, but not to depend on that. That being, mid-level impulses forming which could impact the state mainly north and near Central Florida (at indeterminable time frames) with the first one doing so at this time as a section of storm activity near Ocala.  Depending on when or if each one reaches the state and any one area will greatly skew model guidance.

"EVERY CLOUD HAS A....."

Winds just above 'the deck' today are strong enough to likely prevent the East Coast Sea breeze from forming north of the 528 Cswy and south of there it should remain (if it forms) within 1 mile of the coast at most,  except perhaps further south toward Ft pierce or so.  This is some upper level energy and deeper moisture north half of state though, and that combined with outflow from the earlier day activity could throw a wrench in model guidance in regard to where it depicts 'what' and at what time. This image below shows all of the above, but timing is questionable  Observe that the earlier in the day any storm activity approaches and area such as Southern Volusia toward Orlando and then Brevard, the less likely it is that it would be 'strong' activity, perhaps only showers. The better chances of thunder outside of the current activity is after 3pm.

"YESTERDAY"

 BEYOND: With some impulses crossing the Southeast states and likely more to come from the western Great Lakes region, expect that each day will be in question.  Tomorrow will be another day of  "will the sea breeze even form?" as perhaps will be Thursday. That is important to know for without the east coast sea breeze, stronger activity or even thunder becomes less likely.   The weekend, beginning Friday, at a quick glance looks like it could become quite active in the mid afternoons to late day and early evening with sea breeze convergence activity well pronounced as upper level winds begin to decrease. The frontal boundary in the Southeast States that has been discussed before is not showing to read the FLorida/Georgia Border, and even the latest GFS shows it in frontalysis across Central Florida manifesting as an afternoon 'heat low' at the surface which could spark stronger storms. That might be over-done.

"BEACH OUTREACHER"

Strong Storms Again Possible Today, Mainly after 5PM

  Severe Thunderstorm Munches I95
"Dinner Time"

RECAP: Not much change in forecast reasoning. As can be seen by peeking outside, early day cloud coverage is no longer an issue as was anticipated might by the case in future days per yesterday's post. Plentiful heating, steering toward the east or perhaps even ESE with deep layer mean (DLM) ridge axis (stacked ridge axis' through most atmospheric levels) well to the South shouldn't be too strong to prevent the east coast sea breeze from forming by early afternoon some time but also remain only within about 1-8 miles of the east coast south of the Cape Canaveral area. Further north, the sea breeze if it can form at all will remain much closer to the coast.   Suspect that yesterday some early afternoon showers that went out to sea resulted in a bit of a mock sea breeze due to outflows from them that forced the sea breeze front inland toward the Orlando area. This 'could' occur again today if earlier showers near the coast form, but that will be strictly a matter of chance.  (Other shower outflows occurred across eastern portions of South Central to South Florida yesterday as storms propagated into the Palm Beach county area.) As 6pm "Magic" approached these boundaries weakened and possibly 'retreated coincident with falling Lifted condensation levels (LCLS) which added in rapid storm strengthening and propagation of the inland storm motions fairly rapidly toward the east coast resulting in a 'storm fest' from Brevard south to Palm Beach County.

Severe Storm with Very Heavy Rain, Strong Wind Gusts at I95 and 524
"Breaking the Sound Barrier"

TODAY: Activity already underway North Florida working east. Upper level winds could bring cause to believe that outflow boundaries from said activity could propagate east and south which would affect overall storm motions early afternoon and into the rest of the day like falling dominoes. Exactly where the heaviest activity will occur is difficult to say, but the shorter range High Resolution Model seems to  be honing in on similar areas as yesterday. Wind gusts particularly from Central Brevard and South toward the coast could be 'near severe' due to stronger downdraft Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) noted on the mesoscale depictions. Tiny hail is also possible in the core of the heaviest downpours for a brief time, mainly after the 4:30PM time frame. Beware of the lightning, even if rain has yet to fall. Some strikes yesterday well preceded actual rainfall by 5-10 minutes.

"Escape From Osceola"

TUESDAY: Although the theme remains the same, deepening of the trough down the east coast mentioned in previous post might greatly delay if not altogether prevent the east coast sea breeze and greatly limit storm potential except perhaps south of the Vero area, but this will not be known with greater certainty until tomorrow morning (at least). Otherwise, it will much warmer toward the east coast for a longer duration of the day.

BEYOND: Otherwise, variations of the same theme continue as steering weakens, but continuance of sea breeze convergence, slower steering and apparently some 'dry slots' impinging in the west to east mid-level steering winds in future days will limit if not prohibit storm formation entirely in certain areas while others will receive the lightning barrages. Those areas though remain uncertain on a daily basis. With that stated (as that is what guidance is showing), such activity might well remain prevalent into the first week of August with no tropical threats sowing/showing up close to home.

"I - 95 TIDAL WAVE !!"

Cloudiness Transition to Showery Thunder Mid Afternoon - Early Evening

"Pasture Performance"

TODAY: No change in thinking our circumstances regarding , once again, prevalent early cloudy conditions over some areas; however, some areas are receiving ample clearing for surface heating. Plenty of instability is in place although low level lapse rates are the pits right now as of noon due to cloud cover. But, per visible satellite imagery, it appears much of the land mass will receive the heat energy necessary to set the wheels in motion for isolated to scattered shower and storm activity. As expected, the low level through mid-level ridge axis or Deep Layer Mean (DLM) ridge is well across South Florida making for eastward storm motions at generally 10-18 mph, but not so strong that some activity could propagate along any outflow boundaries or Lake breeze boundaries near and downstream of the larger bodies of inland waters.

Like Yesterday, early cloudiness muddies the atmospheric waters making things a bit difficult to peg down to  a higher degree of certainty. Latest visible image shows clearing west half of state Central and North Portions (mainly). East Central will have the  most difficult time to clear out, along with much of the South

MONDAY: Steering continues pretty much the same. As previously noted, a low pressure area in upper levels near James Bay will begin to deepen and extend southward with reinforcements from the northwest: at the surface in the form of a weak frontal boundary. 

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: The mid level trough will begin to become more notable east of the Mississippi River Valley Basin as well, as it appears, because High Pressure well to the east over the NW Atlantic will block the low pressure area from progressing east, so instead of working east and away it will 'buckle' southward into the Southeast states. This will cause steering to be from the West Northwest (WNW) but ample moisture remains. Upper and mid level temperature profiles do not appear will change significantly for the warmer or colder, so an obvious chance of strong storms will only be discernible on "The Day Of..." , which will also be contingent on the unusual  early day cloud coverage issue which we should see come to end any day now. Later in the week we might be dealing with remnant MCS (mesoscale convective system) like activity riding down the back end of the trough from the continental U.S. which always puts a major crimp on any daily forecast, but that is yet to be foreseen. We'll know it when  or if that happens and play it from there.

BEYOND: No big changes foreseen through next week at all into the next weekend although approaching the 27-29th time frame , being as it is so far out in time, becomes highly uncertain; regard that less (though) for thunder chances remain in the equation as of today at least.

"Open Country"

Potential For Isolated But Strong Storms Today

LIKE YESTERDAY, CLOUD COVER IS AN ISSUE IN THE FORECAST BUT AS EXPECTED THERE ARE SEVERAL VARIATIONS TO THE THEME

TODAY: Latest satellite imagery shows cloud deck over Florida is trying to thin out. Instability even without a lot of sunshine is higher than yesterday regardless of the cloud deck. Winds at the surface and aloft are similar although yesterday there was vorticity energy over SW Florida per the meso-guidance which set off a severe thunderstorm warning at one point and plentiful coverage in that area; but, that energy aloft is not there today. Additionally  the atmosphere is not as over saturated south of I-4 and even less near and  south of the route from Canaveral to Tampa south through South Central to South Florida, or most of it.

So,  better clearing (there) could ensue as the late morning and early afternoon progresses across that region specifically (but time will tell). Without an upper level trigger there is a chance there could be a prolonged 'cloud break' period which will allow more destabilization to occur. The latest Meso Guidance is showing upper level divergence over that same region, thus the image above is focusing mainly on the south 1/2 of the state today for some stronger storms (not including on going activity over North Florida/ Panhandle region).

It is noted that the mesoscale analysis is showing quite a bit of down- draft CAPE over the same area (most of South to Central Florida)  likely due to some mid-level drying. This should or at least could help further suppress a significant mid-level cloud deck, on the other hand, it might trap it. For now will hedge for better clearing and stronger storms instead; stronger due to gusting rain cooled downdrafts in isolated yet stronger storms after 4pm through as long as it takes for the atmosphere to get worked over, cloud covered, or both .. which could be as soon as 6pm or as late as 9pm. The lightning threat if this does come to fruition might also be enhanced.

Steering today is toward the ENE in general but at only about 10mph. Expect both sea breezes will have progressed inland a ways before activity in full can really get initiated, and not sure that given how far inland the strongest storms will initiate that they will ever make it back to the  east coast as anything more than light - moderate rainfall with maybe a few in cloud lightning strikes aloft. As usual though, time will tell given the uncertainties already outlined above.

JULY 15th 2012 Storm over the
Banana River, Pineda CSWY

SUNDAY/TUESDAY: Pattern change (again) . The low level ridge axis now nearer Central Florida appears will sink south toward Lake Okeechobee and perhaps even further south heading into much of next week, IF SO, low level winds up through the atmospheric columns will all be more from the SW in general and thus provide for a sturdier East-Side leaning or favoring of convective (thunderstorm) activity.

WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME: Another pattern change. This time some drying and steering perhaps a bit more from the WNW but nonetheless toward the east side of the state. Meanwhile, as advertised  a deeper upper level trough is expected to develop from the all too oft prevalent James Bay area low that should again keep steering from a westerly component toward the east as a frontal boundary finds its way somewhere into the Southeast states. So far, the hint is that a normal like summer pattern will continue varying from day to day to at least around the 27th of July with only some variations of the theme discussed in this paragraph. 

END OF MONTH HEADS-UP: We'll soon by closing in on the end of July by the time we 'might' enter another pattern of other sort altogether  as the GFS has twice hinted at the first true tropical like entity approaching the north side of the Dominican Republic. Although this is way too far off in time to even consider, August is a month when tropical activity can take a jump start in leaps and bounds, particularly as we enter the 2nd or 3rd week.    

Rain/Thunderstorm Chances Back in Swing (with Daily Variations) Through Next Weekend

PORT CANAVERAL EXIT LAST YEAR - LEADING EDGE OF ARCUS DELINEATES THE GUST FRONT

A Best Guess as of 8AM of where the best shower and thunder chances will be for today.  As noted, this will be highly contingent upon where and if cloud cover will be able to move out which is in question

TODAY: Happy Fri-Blog! In continuance of the previous post (below image), the low to mid level inverted trough axis which was across the area of or near Cuba did lift north and west yesterday and overnight last night and will progress a bit  further before being absorbed into high pressure out of the realm of the Florida region. Meanwhile, in it's wake Atlantic high pressure is sneaking in from the east and across Southeast Florida with the axis toward Central Florida.

JULY 19 2012 Storm - This Day Last Year, Port Canaveral Florida

The result between a combination of those two features will be to induce an earlier in the day east coast sea breeze over Southeast Florida with greater inland penetration toward the west coast, with less to much less so East Coast sea breeze penetration the further north one travels, especially north of Vero and then toward Daytona Beach. 

Mid Level SW-WSW Flow is expected to be from about 15-20knts but weaker higher up resulting in an additive vector of about a 10-13mph storm motion from the WSW-ENE (outside of storms wobbling or propagating along  any outflow or lake boundaries). 

There is also some low level drier air poised toward SE Florida, so suspect this area will see little in remarkable rain today except perhaps as far north as Ft. Pierce toward Vero Beach.

General forecast of lower level winds late morning, forgetting not that there is a lot of clouds still out there early morning, and that abundant moisture remains. The small dark 'darts' are low level wind 'barbs', the arrows drawn in are mid level winds.

Again, and otherwise, there is still moisture in the Precipitable Water (PWAT) range of 2.0 - 2. 1" inches atmospherically. This can make for heavy rainfall totals in localized areas, but conversely can result in quick formation of non-rain producing cloud coverage. Oft, an atmosphere over laden with moisture will not produce heavy rainfall totals except under particular situations where there is a lot of upper level energy (a trigger) which is not necessarily the case today. Additionally, too much cloud coverage prevents the low levels from receiving heating, and therefore the low levels do not get destabilized (as would otherwise be the case in the absence of abundant amounts of clouds) enough to produce thunderstorms. One can have either a lot of cloud coverage and not much rain, or few clouds and plenty of sunshine and heat resulting storms later in the day.  Sometimes high atmospheric moisture (PWAT) values results in 'over casting' the rain chance. Once can 'miss the mark' by going too far, and also by underestimating the potentiality of the circumstances.

BEYOND: It appears that this same situation with variations MIGHT be with us to varying degrees for a few more days. The more the clouds at sunrise, the more questionable the entire day will be. Today happens to be one of those days.

OTHERWISE: The models continue to show a front (previously mentioned)   making it toward North Georgia. Regardless, the upper level trough supporting that front heading toward Tuesday will keep the mid level ridge axis location (which dictates, in part storm, or steering) suppressed toward South Central to Far South Florida in coming days. 

What that means is that although steering speed will not always be very strong to sometimes quite weak, it will allow for both sea breezes to interact toward the Center of the state with a lean toward the east side. Moisture will work back into South Florida as well. Some days could be quite sparse on the storms but they will be around regardless, and possibly strong. Much will depend on where some larger scale boundaries and dry slots end up, which was alluded to in the previous post. 

July 19 2012 Port Canaveral , Florida Storm moves in from the WNW

Westside Thunders - Eastside Showers Through Thursday

MONDAY Morning Visible Satellite Imagery and
areas mostly likely for Sprinks, Showers, and Thunder

TODAY: Deep layer easterly flow up through 20,000 feet this morning is advecting showers toward the east coast of Florida. So far, most are decaying off as they come near shore and expecting that will be the case through early afternoon although some sprinkles and a few showers could reach the coast before the sea breeze sets up. Subsidence beyond (behind) the sea breeze could cause them further to die off that what is already present, but we'll see. Otherwise, the better location for showers and thunder will be West Central spine of the state to the west coast and into the Panhandle region.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: One , if not two TUTT like features are well to the east of the state on the approach but it appears they will mainly dampen out, but there is no shortage of sufficient moisture to fuel morning coastal showers almost anywhere along the east coast, with afternoon thunder in various locations from West of Orlando (for instance  toward Lake County and south near Rte 27 and west) toward SW Florida.

Meanwhile, an inverted mid-level trough is expected to form toward Cuba in the coming days which is then expected to lift north and west. That will be the harbinger of another pattern change in the weather overnight Thursday night into Friday for quite some time to come (perhaps up to 6 days). See images below.

FRIDAY Through WEEKEND: Steering becomes SW but low level circulations will allow the sea breezes to form as well with the surface ridge axis across Central to South Central Florida. Cold air aloft could allow for some Strong Storms. There also appears will be a 'particular dry slot' looming across either North Florida or North Central somewhere which could remain nearly rain free during this time frame. The preferred area for Storms at this point appears will be South Florida northward toward the Beach Line area and around the Lake Okeechobee area as well as over the I 10 corridor and vicinity.

BEYOND: A cold front is forecast to penetrate as far south as the I-10 although that might be overdone  Would more than likely foresee it making it as far South as Central or South Georgia as a wind shift line heading toward mid week next week. Otherwise, it's looking like a very typical summer like pattern. The GFS is showing restricted rainfalls, yet moisture levels are not all that low, so suspect the model is not accounting for sea breeze convergence and Lake Breeze boundary interactions which act to 'condense' moisture amply to provide for isolated thunderstorms. Upper level temperatures to gradually warm next week,  with the net effect that storm strength could wane a bit but with lightning being an ever present hazard regardless. 

This Forecast for Tuesday evening shows where the inverted MID LEVEL trough ofr from about 5000- 10,000 feet or so is expected to develop. We can see the wind barbs as well pointing from east to west which will cause the chance of east coast early day and overnight showers and west coast storms

FRIDAY Morning (in red) we See that Trough has lifted North and West . Note the wind barbs are now pointing from the SW. That is the storm steering direction.

Storm Chances Continue through Saturday - Rain Chances Go Beyond

"Racing ahead of a Storm Just West of Cape Canaveral" 

"Storm Tracking Up the Banana River"

TODAY: As expected, today looks much different than yesterday although there are some similarities. Activity is already underway along the I-4 and is progressing across the state which will mean an earlier start to mostly folks north of I-4 spreading southward toward the Orlando area by early afternoon. 

There is a 'hole' in the instability over South Florida at least per the RAP Model and satellite imagery seems to be backing this idea up. Virtually none of the models agree today in regard to 'where' the best rain chance is, and to add greater difficulty is that the short term model is out of sync with the mid range guidance regarding the steering winds this afternoon taking them to nearly non-existent which is in sharp contrast to the NAM and GFS models which put steering from the WSW at 10-15mph. 

For now will run with persistence and toss the short term model out which unfortunately also means getting little use out of the Mesoscale Analysis parameters. The GFS seems to have the best handle on the situation favoring mostly the east coast for strongest activity from JAX South toward MLB (Melbourne possibly) with the latest activity being toward Brevard County sometime after 3pm (or so), although every day is different and guidance rarely gets the west or  east coast sea breeze progressions right. Given there was pre-sunrise activity off either coast and that has already begun to come to fruition over the landmass, suspect some activity could be near by any one locale even sooner than expected but only time will reveal the truth of the matter.

Note lack of clouds over portions of South Central and Even East Central. However, the activity over Lake County is steadily moving eastward even as this early hour of 11:30AM

Storm Lined Up Along the Length of the Banana River

UNDER what is referred to by some as "The Whales Mouth" - The Jonah View of Finally "Seeing the Light" on the horizon

View of July 11 Storm from the 528 Causeway looking NNW (North north west)

Otherwise,  local effects and arrival of activity today will be critical as to storm intensity with where the most lightning (likely along the east coast sea breeze collision toward I95 and US1 mid afternoon through late afternoon) will occur. Would be watching from West Melbourne northward toward Port St John to Mims are and into Central and Eastern Volusia (for now).

SATURDAY: Another day of good rain chances toward the east coast.

SUNDAY-BEYOND: No change from previous post (yesterday). Steering becomes a bit more from the South toward inland on Sunday but there could also be coastal morning showers as the wind pattern shifts to more from the east. By later in the week once whatever becomes (if anything) of Remnant Chantal is out of the way, it appears the Atlantic Ridge axis will be shunted south to Central or South Central Florida around Thursday into Friday by a larger upper level trough that will moving across the Northeast States. That will put the I-4 Corridor toward interior Central along the Beachline (Orlando area) in favorable conditions for active storms as well as other portions of the state, depending on where ample moisture resides. 

Better "Thundery" Weather Pattern Today Through Saturday

ISOLATED Stronger Storms Possible Late with LAKE/Sea Breeze/Outflow Collisions
Mainly West of I95 to near and Across the Florida Turnpike Zones

TODAY: What a difference a day makes, although not unexpected. Guidance does not agree well on the regions of greatest rain chances today although a few items can be ascertained. Some drier air is moving into Southeast Florida so this area appears to have a lower rain chance other than toward parts of Palm Beach County and nearer the Lake. Further north, the Lake Shadow toward Ft Pierce will have an enhancing storm effect in certain spots but also be detrimental in the rain chance department for other areas not far off.

Steering for storms today instead of being from the east or southeast is from the Southwest today which brings to mind the other 'problem zone'..East Central in general where a not so unusual afternoon 'dry socket' will be enhanced as the afternoon progresses which seems to happen fairly often in a summertime SW Flow regime. That region could count out the coast of Central to South Brevard for heavier if any rainfall south toward Indian River County and north toward Cape Canaveral since those areas are upstream of that unfavorable area for either storms to form in or to die out as they enter that region.  

The other option out (though)is that the HRRR model seems to be bringing the east coast sea breeze too far inland based on its mock future-radar forecast; thus, we might be able to shift the orange zone east another 10-20 miles.  All in all, the best time for strongest activity will be after peak heating when the west coast sea breeze will have made progress east across the state to the far interior and when the lifted condensation levels start to fall. BUT, there too is an issue. 

The RAP model insists that those levels will not fall amply enough to generate significant if any thunder activity over South Central toward the coast until after 6:30-8-00pm tonight. Suspect parts of Brevard might end up seeing threatening skies that produce little rainfall when all is said and done, but can't say the same for just about anything  20 miles from any coast (inland) or areas closer toward I-4 and north.

The gist is, much better chances of thunderstorms today than there has been on a statewide basis for several days now, to nearly a week.    

REMNANTS OF CHANTAL: The advisories have ended although the latest GFS shows a re-emergence of a near Tropical Depression "Like" feature near the Bahamas in about 48 hours or less. Surprisingly, in the past 2 hours where the storm was 'last seen'..explosive development has erupted near SE Cuba (below)

"Oops!"

In General, the GFS has shown moisture from "The Ghost of Chantal" to lift northward well east of Florida but not to be forgotten. If that model verifies from two previous runs, we might see that moisture slosh ashore from the east around Sunday afternoon into Monday morning but timing if so is completely hypothetical at this point.  

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: These two days will be on a case by case basis, but rain chances overall appear to be less problematic to forecast at least on Friday where many areas will have a better chance of showers and thunder.

SUNDAY- BEYOND: The theme of the summer so far re-emerges, that being High Pressure from the Atlantic again asserts its grizzly face back westward in retrograding which is what ended the thunderstorms for many areas several days ago, placing the state in deep easterly flow once again. 

But again as noted above, moisture from The Chantal Ghost could end up washing ashore  making for east coast early morning and overnight showers through early afternoon before marching toward the west coast late in the day. That pattern is expected to persist from Monday through at least Friday (if not much longer) of next week. Guidance is oscillating toward a more typical summertime pattern favoring the I-4 for thunderstorms as it attempted to do nearly a week ago until Chantal entered the picture going into the last 15 days of July.

Chantings Over Chantel and Other sub-Realities

Complicated "Guess-Cast" Today,
Shoot From the Hip Wager for this post

TODAY: Remains of the TUTT Low (see previous post) are near South Florida with an axis extending from it toward East Central. The latest ECMWF (European Model) shows a mid level vort max at 850mb to cross up the East Coast to Central Florida today that no other model is showing. Interestingly, that matches nicely with what radar and satellite imagery (above) also shows. The short term High Resolution Model seems to have picked up on it also as does the RAP, but in both cases they show this disturbed area mainly remaining offshore and weakening significantly by early afternoon, with the High Rez (High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model) eventually bringing it in near the Cape Kennedy area toward sunset as a sprinkle of rain. With that said:

Increased rain and thunderstorm chances in orange areas (above) with some stronger activity possible toward the west coast as well as the Panhandle area which is under a completely different weather regime (as has been much the case this entire month). Winds becoming more SE-SSE as opposed to the brief period of NE winds yesterday which was expected might occur as winds were to back ahead of the TUTT low. Rain could persist today until late evening possibly depending on how fast the transition to SW Flow in  mid levels occurs. In any case, today looks like for many folks today will be quite a bit different than recent days, particularly interior and west side of the state although nothing in the models is in close agreement. There's is a chance the east coast somewhere might see a 'surprise' rain late tonight.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY: The TUTT low and circulation will diminish but a mid-level trough might exist just across the Panhandle region sandwiching Central and South Florida in a SW Flow aloft (beginning as soon as around 10pm tonight ) post TUTT and pre-remnant Chantal. This would set the stage for better sea breeze convergences and steering toward the east coast at about 10-12 mph.

The weather going into the weekend or early next week is highly contingent on the eventual track of Chantal or remnant thereof, mainly in regard to moisture advection related to the system. The latest Hurricane Center track follows close to yesterday's (and the day before) track shown by the GFS.

Above was yesterday's track of a small low ("Chantal")  with very little wind to speak of, with all of the rain in that example east of Florida on the Global Forecast System (GFS) model.
 Here is the latest official 'track' from the Hurricane Center...

Conservative plotting a forecast track for now
weakening Chantal which looks more like a depression if even that

"CHANTAL" - At this point (today), model consensus is further to the west of the official track, taking the 'storm' or what remains of it up the Florida peninsula, although other tracks continue it well to the west and a few well to the east. The point is that even if the storm gets north of Cuba and strengthens somewhat, it remains a minimal reality at least at this point. If the storm does go east of the state, we might actually dry out for a period. the better chances of rain are if it goes up the center or west side of the peninsula as at least a low level vorticity max. The models are divided as to whether it will even be a closed low let alone a 'depression'...thus, the weekend outlook is sketchy at best...leaving much 'Chanting about Chantal' and not much more than conjecture making for media attention.

Image shows "Chantal' of non descript-circulation moving generally west , and TUTT low
near the KEYS with a trough extending NE from it. That TROUGH is expected to pass over the state today from east to west  and put Florida in more of a SW Flow after its passage. In Turn, this "should/could"  increase thunderstorm chances Thursday- Saturday

Weather Pattern to Slowly Shift Out as TUTT Approaches

TODAY'S EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE with better rain chances
shown for South Florida and up the West half of the state

"MORNING SHOWER FLOWER POWER"

TODAY: Remains of a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) will affect mainly the West Half of the State and into parts of South Florida, with some stronger storms shown in the red along and near the West Coast Mainly (first image above). Otherwise, deep southeast flow could bring some tiny showers as far north as the Brevard County (north) line but very haphazardly. The main weather today will be occurring toward the West half of the state, and South Florida, and the keys where early day rain has already fallen. Suspect many of the areas that saw the bulk of weather activity yesterday will be the same today which was from Sarasota and North along the west coast with lesser activity the further east one gets toward Orlando. Exactly how 'sunny' the beaches of the east coast will remain sunny for a sustained length of time is a bit questionable as we head toward early afternoon as satellite is showing more clouds and maybe a shower imbedded with them approaching in a few hours.

WEEKEND: Winds will gradually weaken a bit and  back more toward the east rather than be from the southeast with the approach of another upper low now showing up nicely on satellite imagery. This low is accompanied by colder air aloft and is solely an upper level feature working down into the mid-levels. At the lower levels it shows up as a mere ripple and small wind direction change. Preceding this low will likely be a period of drier weather. The greater impacts from this low will be not preceding it but afterward heading into Wednesday (perhaps)...then Friday and perhaps into the weekend as upper level steering becomes much more southerly to SSW-erly with time. This could place much of the state into a chance of thunderstorms and for a time South Florida might see some strong to severe storms as it passes by working north toward South Central Florida.

Visible Satellite Animation Imagery showed the sun reflecting brightly during the satellite pass..above we can see the upper level TUTT much more clearly as noted

"Yellow Mushrooms In Cape Canaveral"

BEYOND: Other than difficult to time coastal showers "east" and a chance of decreasing west coast activity heading into the weekend, a rather benign weather pattern sets up until about Tuesday (early).

After the TUTT (Tropical Upper <level> Tropospheric Trough) Low works toward Florida it might get 'hung up' as a continental trough works across the Mississippi River to the east coast. This will cause the high pressure ridge axis that is well north of Florida at this time to sink south toward Central or even South Central to South Florida come the Friday time frame  which will shift thunderstorm activity at least toward much of the I-4 corridor into Volusia County. Depending on how far the ridge axis is forced south much of the east coast north of West Palm could get into afternoon storm activity including Brevard if it gets as far south as far South Florida. Guidance varies from run to run and between models on what is to come about in that regard. Regardless, from Tuesday through next weekend the weather pattern will be notably different from that of the past few days of late.

"Mushroom Cloud Tops are Limited to Those Out of the Ground
in the Absence of Thunderstorms - East Coast"

Chance Again of Strong Storms Mainly East Central Today - Conditionally

"STORMY WATERS " (Cape Canaveral, Manatee Park)

TODAY: As expected, another tricky forecast day, more so than the past two days. Several factors are forecast to come into place almost worth mentioning the "S" word for but will leave it with the little 's' for strong as opposed to Severe Storms. Short term guidance and now with newest model guidance for the mid-range time frame is showing some stronger than usual low-mid level winds across South Central toward parts of North Central (mainly over the east half of the state) to work north as the high pressure to the east of the state attempts to nudge in across South Florida later today.

Higher instability is currently confined to South Florida but that should be advected up, across, and around Lake Okeechobee by mid afternoon toward I-4 if it can get that far. So far, guidance insists that it will not get much further north than the Brevard county line though.

This, coupled with a resurgence of stronger winds from 5000-10,000 feet AND, and only if, a slight side shore like sea breeze, upriver wind gets going, storms crossing the rivers mainly from South Brevard toward Mims or extreme Southern Volusia  (Oak Hill for example toward Sanford) might pull off some surprises. Additionally, although not shown (below) thunder really is possible all the way as far north as St. Augustine.

 Storm motion should be even faster today than previous days as the could well grow quite rapidly   from south to north during the mid afternoon into late afternoon. Outflows could add to the mix as well. That last factor to consider will be what, if any, the Lake Okeechobee shadow will have.  Best winds for what could produced strong to severe might  end up where there  is less instability (Volusia and Orange/Seminole area Tampa).  Net point being, too difficult to peg down any specific areas.

RED is for the 'possible' stronger activity, although this might need
 to have been shifted west about 20-50 miles, hard to say for sure.
"Oh Nooooo...."

TUESDAY: This day again is another tricky day but chances remain for rain on this day in many areas, although the GFS seems to imply it will be late day, along the east Central coast, maybe even later than today, with less instability, so strong storms appear to be out of the picture tomorrow.

WEDNESDAY: Again, some rain chance but exactly where is up in the air as the pattern will be in the process of shifting out and nearing an entirely new phase of SSE-ESE flow into Thursday.

THURSDAY: Oddly, the new NAM model is now showing rain along the east coast much of the day on the Fourth of July, but will throw it out as of now and keep it 'dry' except maybe early morning along the east coast.

BEYOND: Tropical wave like feature (s) now forecast to approach somewhere between the end of the weekend to early next week, the GFS and ECMWF diverge as to when it will approach the state though, but late Sunday - Tuesday time frame is the time frame (so far) for another rain chance of ocean origins.

The LONGER RANGE is almost easier though: Little chance of any thunderstorms it appears into the middle of July, which really isn't all that unusual some years as easterly flow prevails with periodic ripples of atmospheric moisture passing over making for some showers every few days or so, but nothing at all significant. Thunder toward the west coast even looks low due to lack of a good west coast sea breeze.

"A Severe Thunderstorm Warning Is Now In Effect"  - Banana River, Cape Canaveral

Continued Chance of Brief Heavy Showers / Lightning Hazards - Some Possibly Quite Strong

Early morning radar is shown . Showers/storms should move from the WSW to SW today around 15 mph toward the East Northeast (ENE).  Earlier onset toward the east coast once again, but timing will be everything again today. The later the onset, the stronger the storms can be ..with one big 'ouch' in the forecast per the RAP Model noted below

TODAY: More atmospheric moisture today than yesterday with another earlier onset of activity expected. Numerous small showers to develop mainly toward the west coast and spread eastward  accelerating along the west coast sea breeze front. With faster motion and plenty of instability today (more so than yesterday) some areas might experience rain more than once. The earlier the activity reaches the east coast , e.g. before 3pm, the lower chances of significantly stronger activity there will be.

The unusually amplified pattern of " trough eastern U.S. and ridge Western U.S."  (making for record highs in the Desert SW such as at Vegas and Needles where it reached 123F yesterday) will continue to amplify today. meaning the trough will be digging further south, and the ridge out west will expand northward will into Western Canada.

The RAP model suggests that as the upper trough digs to the west of Florida a bit of short wave trough at the low level will cross mainly the North Half of the state. In response, the surface winds near the east coast could back from SW toward to more of a southerly to SSE direction by early-mid afternoon.

As such, convergence at some localized eastern locations could result in strong storms with heavy downpours and wind gusts near 50 mph and frequent lightning, especially east of I-95 to the beach areas. There is no especially favored area, although there is a chance of the strongest storms occurring over the Panhandle to Northeast Florida. Latest RAP goes as far as showing a strong storm over Brevard by early afternoon. On the other hand, other models show no such backing of winds, and thus more of a generalized spread of showery activity much like yesterday.

MONDAY: This day still appears to be the most active day or similar to today (so far). Slish slosh and add some soap cycle.

TUESDAY: Another active day with a gradual pattern shift . Winds becoming more S-SSE paralleling the east coast while moisture depth continues with moderate instability. Strong wind gusts and frequent lightning still possible in bursts of heavy rainfall. Tuesday will have a different all around 'feel' to it than today and Monday.

WEDNESDAY: Can it drag on yet one more day? Maybe, but this particular wet pattern cycle will be nearing completion before we enter spin dry.

THURSDAY- Fourth of July: This appears to be the driest day of all through next weekend, with the majority of rainfall toward NW Florida and the Big Bend prior to the Final Rinse cycle.

BEYOND: The GFS and ECMWF are showing a resurgence of moisture from the ESE (East Southeast) as a tropical wave approaches the state , if not two smaller 'ripples'. In as such that the east coast could see earlier morning activity spreading west during the day, and perhaps on one day toward Saturday it won't make any difference what time of day it is that rainfall could be experienced. Rinse cycle begins Friday.

"Ocean showers" in the atmosphere being depicted can be surprisingly quite heavy with a brief period of wind gusts near 40 mph if this pattern does continue to emerge as guidance shows. After next weekend though, significant drying is shown with a down time after around the 10th of July statewide.

A Perchance Random Strong to Severe Storm Possible Again Today

"HOVERING "

"LOCALIZED FLAIR"

YESTERDAY: Not much different today than yesterday regarding forecast accuracy which is a bit of a 'make no promises, incur no loses' type forecast on this end. Today does look quite a bit different in general than yesterday, at least as of 10AM, but from that standpoint everything is happening as expected: "Predictably unpredictable". 

Images above are right on to near about where the seabreeze was able to reach yesterday which was the sand dunes. However, a side shower / up river wind component was able to form at ground level, hence a water spout along the Indian River was reported toward South Brevard as some storm action from the west moved over the river. It appears per latest guidance (short term models) that an up the coast type wind might once again develop today after 2pm or so, but will remain close to the beaches. The above shown (image) formation appeared to be resultant from the side shore wind meeting outflow from a storm to the north that was working southward just offshore. There was some weak rotation associated  with it, but in  no way was it close to 'significant'.

TODAY: SW flow aloft continues with 'pockety' moisture in various levels along with a mesoscale boundary or two which could again act as catalysts. It appears one such boundary might be running near to just north of I-4 as a result of outflow from early morning activity further north. Today does not look quite as unstable though as yesterday did at this time nor are any mid-level boundaries discernible (as of yet).

Regardless, will play for the worst as noted below for various locations as a shot from the hip.

SOUTH FLORIDA is again questionable. As of now this area is showing up on Mesoanalysis as very stable with the most unstable area being Central Florida. North Florida is being stabilized by early day activity already.

SIDE NOTE: Jet stream level winds today are  from the NE to Southwest (which is a bit odd), so anvil tops on stronger storms will blow AWAY from the east coast and toward SW Florida with time. That might be enough to shut activity down that way to a grinding halt due to the shadow of the anvils stabilizing the air below but that is well down the road into later today. Otherwise, will watch some pockets along the intracoastal or even immediate beaches again today mainly from the north side of the cape toward Vero Beach or Ft Pierce.

If activity begins to form too soon along the west side of the state and marches east before any side shore component can form (or if it forms), most if not all of the strong storm chances will fall almost away entirely except possibly toward I4 or maybe in SE Florida.

BEYOND: Even less chance of a side shore wind in the next day or so, but Sunday and Monday both appear to have a better chance of being 'wet', especially across all of Central and South Florida in various locations. By Tuesday the steering and surface flow is nearly from due South or SSW which sets up a different set of circumstances entirely, along with better upper level divergence as the upper level trough makes it's deepest southward plunge before retrograding away toward the NW and filling in, losing all identity by mid week next week.  

The most obvious all out reduced day for rain chances is Thursday and beyond for the most part (for quite some time really) but not entirely so..afterall, it is summer in Florida.

                  "LONE SOUL"