Better Chance of Storms Toward the East Side Today

Offshore Shower - Cape Canaveral - This Morning

More of This kind of Stuff Later Today - Storm over West Rockledge / Cocoa Tuesday

TODAY: Not much change from what guidance and the blog has been advertising since last week. Low pressure over the Deep South is retrograding a bit, and ridge is building in across far South Florida. This will result in increased S-SW Flow aloft though not nearly strong enough to offset the east coast sea breeze. Activity has already begun over far South Florida and expect it will spread inland and north with time through early afternoon. Winds aloft on the KSC sounding were mainly almost from due South at the steering level to SSW and that will hold all day but perhaps come from an even more SW direction by mid-afternoon as the ridge builds in.  The net result would be theoretically faster moving storms today as opposed to almost no storm motion, though they might have a slow motion until reaching into full storm strength altitudes aloft.

Biggest threat will be lightning as temperatures at 500mb remain around -6C and only 10C at 700 mb which is fairly generic Julyish, thus stronger wind gusts and 'severe sized hail' not very likely. Warm this afternoon as well toward the east coast, warmer than the usual. Mixing ratios are also higher than yesterday, and with such high dew points, it will feel very uncomfortable with some heat indices working into the discomfort equation away from the sea breeze which will kick in by early afternoon. By this time yesterday (10:30AM) a discernible sea breeze was already noted at my location, but not today. That is an indicator of the subtle changes at the surface and aloft.  An individual was fatally struck by lightning yesterday on the west coast while walking on the beach, and two others injured. 

BEYOND: Tomorrow will be a variation of today, but on Friday we might need to be watching for the 'Strong" word before 'thunderstorms', as temperatures aloft are to cool down. On the other hand, activity will increasingly become less widespread as some slivers of dry air are going to come around top of the ridge axis. Today appears to be the last day that much of the state will be 'socked in' with the moisture, much of it will be guided off to the ENE later today and overnight. Thus, in coming days the bigger issue will be where the best moisture is located that will determine where the storms will occur.  

Julyospheric Conditions to Result in Leap Frogging Storms

 

TODAY: It was too easy to only copy/paste here what was written on Thursday:

"MONDAY: A large upper level high mentioned a few posts ago is forecast still to impact much of the western 2/3 rds of the country going well into next week. Perhaps some record high temperatures as far north as North Dakota or Montana will be in the offing at some point and unusually warm from Phoenix (Arizona) up through West Texas and north as well as a result. 
A remnant of a mid level low currently close to SW Oklahoma might get trapped down into the NE Gulf of MExico which might go largely undetected for a few days and then manifest more toward Monday as a weak circulation almost sitting in place. 
Flow to become from SSE-S Monday into Tuesday (and we're back in the thunderstorm business) and steering becomes more from the SW going into Midweek through possibly into the weekend."

For the most part, this is the situation today, though a weak mid level ridge axis extends from the SE Gulf diagonally north - eastward from South Florida across Central. Steering today is close to zero , with light winds at all levels. Wouldn't be surprised to hear of a waterspout or funnel cloud report somewhere before the day is over in this sultry-still "Julyospheric" climate of higher humidities, light winds from ground to jet stream levels, and close to zero true atmospheric dynamics other than those which are thermally originated then manifested through colliding wind boundaries from the sea and lake breezes (except for the Florida Panhandle region).

It appears some east coast activity could go up west of the intracoastal from the Cape and South (very close to the coast if not on it from Ft. Pierce and south. This activity might collapse and send outflow westward, with a leap frog affect , new storms forming toward the west side particularly across South Florida later today.  Interior Central Florida condition will result in more of  a "Chutes and Ladders"  effect with storms going in any direct the roll of the dice propagates them.

TUESDAY: Not a significant enough of a change to get into today. The weak mid-level low pressure cyclonic circulation in the NE Gulf will be retrograding but little else changes, but notable transformations are on the horizon as noted would be the case in Thursday's post. The next frontal system and associative/supporting upper level trough will crest the ridge out West and slide south Wendesday into the weekend driving the Atlantic ridge axis which will be near South Central of Wednesday further south and through the weekend.

 

JUMPING AHEAD: 

Thursday - Sunday: chance of stronger storms as temperatures aloft might cool down a bit with sea breeze convergence still in play. Steering will increase from west to east by that point in time as the trough settles in across all of the Eastern Third of the U.S.

Much Drier Air, Zero Rain Chance Most Areas - See Southeast Florida Today

"Heart of the Sunrise"

TODAY: Precipitable water values through the atmospheric 'weather column' (PWAT) are below the July norm today which will result in mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies today but continued warm inland away from the sea breeze. The only depth of moisture is found along the southeast Florida region and up the east coast but to a smaller degree north of Ft Pierce. Best chances of rain today, with perhaps an isolated strong storm or two over interior toward the east side of Broward and Dade County and perhaps around the Eastern Side of Lake Okeechobee , though if so, it would have to be a random chance instigated by unpredictable chain of events from local lake/sea breeze boundaries.  Most areas, the air aloft is warm and lapse rates as a result are pretty much the pits for storm generation (especially Central Florida).

Bloggers overall 'impression' of today , not to be construed as certain.
Thunder most possible from the NE side of Lake Okeechobee and South

SATURDAY/SUNDAY: Mid level low opening to a trough to be moving through parts of the Deep South and the southern extent of the Mississippi River Valley basin where best moisture resides. The GFS IMPLIES this moisture will work into Florida as it rides over the crest of a ridge axis in the far Northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM). This moisture 'might' reach Florida going into Sunday with a significant increase of thunderstorm activity if that is the case (based on the latest 06z (or 2AM Eastern time) model run.

BEYOND: Not one but two more frontal boundaries are shown to move through the Central and Northern U.S. this week. Each one will shunt the Atlantic Ridge axis progressively southward to far South Florida toward the Florida straits placing all in in SW Flow aloft. Getting toward the end of next week is too far out in time to trust in any model run, but that trend has been implied for too many consecutive model runs to disregard. The net result could be a number of things depending on what evolves as far as where best storm chances will exist, but back to the norm of afternoon thunderstorms one way or the other is the overall implication favoring interior and east side most for late day activity and more toward the west side for earlier day (in general) though some 'early onset' days might be in the cards as well heading toward Thursday.

Christmas in July - Few Strings Attached

Canaveral Sunrise and Surf on Thursday Morning (click to enlarge)

TODAY: Quick post as rare Christmas in July cold front which has already passed through the rest of the eastern half of the U.S makes its good byes known across Central and South Florida before exiting out overnight tonight. There MIGHT be a trick remaining up its sleeve however.  Mid level trough has yet to get into the area and will do so later today, latest RAP and to some degree the NAM (which is rarely trusted) imply a mid level impulse might cross dead Central right during peak heating hours. If so, chances of thunder might be higher than currently anticipated across the region, as models are up and down about whether it will even rain much of anywhere except along the east coast, and even at that, the better chances are south of Brevard County.

On the other hand, there is a chance of at least showers as far north as Central Volusia if the front buckles back north a notch or two on the peninsula's waistline from the Beach line west toward Brooksville on the west coast. 

Storm steering is west to east at a steady 15-20 mph pace, and with little chance of a sea breeze it's going to take  a little specially wrapped gift like a disturbance aloft (as was the case yesterday to get the bonfires burn aloft and the lightning streaks striking below. On Donner on Blitzen!

TOMORROW-SATURDAY: Cooler tomorrow morning mainly due to west winds and slightly drier air to start the day becoming ENE during the day. Almost no chance of rain tomorrow or Saturday along the east coast and only meager chances anywhere else. Things slowly start to recover Saturday and more so on Sunday. A welcome respite for beach weekenders, no strings or bows attached that has their name written all over it.

MONDAY: A large upper level high mentioned a few posts ago is forecast still to impact much of the western 2/3 rds of the country going well into next week. Perhaps some record high temperatures as far north as North Dakota or Montana will be in the offing at some point and unusually warm from Phoenix (Arizona) up through West Texas and north as well as a result. A remnant of a mid level low  currently close to SW Oklahoma might get trapped down into the NE Gulf of MExico which might go largely undetected for a few days and then manifest more toward Monday as a weak circulation almost sitting in place.  Flow to become from SSE-S Monday into Tuesday (and we're back in the thunderstorm business) and steering becomes more from the SW going into Midweek through possibly into the weekend.

Sum total, we have about 2-3 days of rather quiet weather coming up after today which isn't really all so unusual in July, has happened before even without a freak frontal passage. Inland zones will be first to note the change in pattern , mostly on Sunday.

Great Heron in Canaveral this morning (click to enlarge)

"Early Onset" Day for Most - Some Strong Wind Gusts Possible

"The Lone Cabbage" Storm On Tuesday (Prolific Lightning Maker)

TODAY: No change from yesterday's line of thinking. A sea breeze is unlikely as the deep layer trough over the Eastern U.S. makes it's best dig at the Deep South, prodding a cold front diagonally down Georgia into the Florida Panhandle later today. A secondary system to form in the Southern Plains will help reinforce the overall synoptic scale pattern on Thursday when again a sea breeze might be hard to come by.

Showers and storms are already on the march across the state, with the big question being what will happen after the first round of showers/storms marches across. The area that will destabilize the most has a better chance of a stronger storm mainly due to wind gusts along the leading edge and during the heaviest rain portions of the storms/showers. Best divergence aloft is over Central and North Central, but part of this area is already getting worked over prior to noon time. 

 The Severe Threat is Low but perhaps more toward the Interior and  East Coast (but very isolated if so)

The scheme of things points more to rains, then cloudy with more rains, and maybe a regeneration much later in the day as the wind fields become more favorable by 6pm tonight for stronger storms, but by that time the atmosphere might have been overly stabilized to make it worth much.

Some Impressive Cloud to Ground (CG) Lightning Bolts
were coming from this Swamp Hogger

TOMORROW: Not digging too much into tomorrow and beyond as Thursday looks like it might be lacking in the sea breeze rankings as well. Friday into Saturday are a pattern shift as the front washes out while being broken up and forced down the state by what might be low pressure forming east of the state (Florida being on the descendant back side as well as the descendant front side of high pressure to build over the eastern Gulf). 

That means, on Saturday it could be dry many areas but near Far Southwest Florida, though not entirely so.

A Few "Stronger Than the Norm" Storms Possible Too -'Day / 'Morrow

Sunset From Canaveral over the Banana River as Storms Decay Near By

(Blog tip: did you know that if reading the blog from on-line, you can double click on the images to enlarge for a better depiction?)

TODAY: No surprises from past several posts regarding the pattern change that was to come and is now in place. Though storms could occur most anywhere ( not necessarily everywhere for a few small reasons), the area to thus watch for is the one that might have some activity beyond the scattered garden variety that has some dynamical reason for being stronger. 

Today, that area appears to be along the east coast and perhaps just in from the coast south of I/4 (Daytona area) and more so from Brevard County and South along to east of I-95. The reasons for that being:

(1) This area is most likely to have a sea breeze though close to the coast; and ;

(2) The area will be for the most part last to receive the better rain chances, giving the atmosphere more time to destabilize prior to arrival of the west coast sea breezes and any antecedent out flows from earlier activity (perhaps even from yesterday) that might be in this.  Aloft, there are really no outstanding features that would warrant a better 'strong storm' suggestion, so in the long run it will be a random situation; 

(3) Though, There is an upper level low east of the state, circulation on the back side of that system could result in some upper level divergence mainly affecting the area also noted in the graphic with all the blues/purples (below).

 It is possible that either more than one round of showers/Storms could also occur in that area and/or the outflows from activity moving off shore will 're-meet newer activity moving in from the west (at about 10-13 mph) and generate more activity, in the long run, it could take a while for the east coast showers/rains to end tonight (albeit eventually only very light).

WEDNESDAY: Chance of stronger storms Central Florida. The cold front that has been advertised  across the eastern half of the U.S. for several days now is on the march and should reach the Florida panhandle. 

Meanwhile,   some upper level divergence should remain over the state to varying degrees, and the GFS indicates stronger winds in the mid levels, especially across Central Florida tomorrow. 

On the down side for stronger storms though, no seabreeze tomorrow and activity could get an early start. Thus, this is a very conditional chance of the 'strong stuff', and might be limited to only the very far east side if activity initiates and works into the interior too early in the day.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: More chances for thunderstorms moving east beginning by early afternoon, but decreasing from north to south. Though the true cooling effect of the front is not anticipated to much reach south of I-10, there is some drying that might get drawn south from high pressure to form over the eastern gulf, clockwise circulations around that high could pull some drier and/or more stable air south with the better chance of rains by Friday afternoon over South Florida.

WEEKEND: So far looks drier as the steering shifts from east toward the west. Though that pattern favors the west side for the late day storms, it might be a meager run storm wise as the atmosphere will be drier.

A return to a more normal July doldrums pattern returns  "Come Monday. when it'll be alright".  

Day of Transition Translates To A New Pattern Tuesday - Friday

Super Moon Low Tide Ponding on Sunday Afternoon

TODAY: Pattern transition will be ongoing during the course of the day, albeit very slowly and gradually. Winds aloft today are to take a deep turn to a more west to east component though remain light. With less early day cloud coverage after a batch of high clouds clears the area of most parts, destabilization will be free to commence unhindered. Morning PWAT (precipitable water) at the Cape (KSC) was down a bit to 1.75" with a convective temperature of 90F but with a cap of zero. Though showers could get going by noon time in some areas, suspect that today will not be like the past two days, but perhaps only a small reflection of them. 

Activity again could occur almost anywhere, but perhaps could get a bit stronger after 3 - 4pm toward sunset and more so as outflows meet sea breezes either side of the state but, which  'could' propagate more toward the east as early evening comes . The immediate coasts east of US1 (for example) might not see rains until very late and they might only be light, but regardless, activity will begin an eastward shift , though an isolated case or two of a full blown storm far east is not' out of the question.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY: Cold front will work south during this time frame and perhaps reach right into the Florida Panhandle by Thursday. Increasing Southwest flow down to the surface (ground level) might be too strong to allow for an east coast sea breeze, but perhaps one that remains well east of I-95 from the Cape and South on one or more of those days. It's simply too early to know for certain at this point. Would expect to see plentiful midday cumulus cloud activity with showers though, exactly how this pattern will evolve bears closer scrutiny as some strong storms are possible if various parameters are able to align. Either way, better rain chances for the beaches, but as the word implies, chances are not guarantees.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY: The GFS is shifting gears a bit in the past two runs and is no longer indicating a full blow westward shift in storm activities this weekend and early next week, or at least not to such a great degree. A secondary low pressure area outside of the one up in Ontario is to work its way across the South Central Plains and into the Deep South region in general. This could reinforce the pattern already in place from the previous days, but the degree to which that will occur is bouncing around. The overall effect though is to keep Florida in more of at least a southerly flow for storm steering as opposed to a more direct east to west flow. There might also be a few mid levels boundaries saying somewhere across the state come this weekend from the previous storm system , which will be interesting to watch for from a forecast perspective.

IN THE FUTURE wouldn't be surprised to hear news headlines discussing high heat in parts of Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona as the GFS is fairly consistent in building a very large  high pressure ridge over the SW US (assuming that holds true) because if this happens, the response to the east is that another unusual trough might be in the making for the eastern U.S.   What happens with that, if it does, will greatly determine storm steering across the state of Florida as we reach the July 23 -29th time frame.

Showers/Thunder Possible Almost Anywhere

Storms Lining Up Near Vero Beach as Seen
Looking South from Cape Canaveral on Saturday

TODAY: Looks like the 12Z GFS of Saturday (and most other models) were incorrect regarding the first half of today as the day is not starting out with near calm winds (esp. along the east coast). Winds this morning have failed to die down and are from the SE up through at least 5000 ft if not higher (OR SO IT WAS thought); however, per latest RAP/NAM and GFS, those winds are to shift to a more southerly to SSW direction by mid morning through early afternoon aloft until we work through mid-afternoon. 

A quick check out side since the beginning of this typing and latest surface observations show that the wind shifted in the past hour and is now from the southwest along the coast of East Central, which means that the models referred to above might actually have something going for them. Onshore winds have switched to off shore within an hour of sunrise.

It's really only an exercise in futility in the long run though, so will keep the post brief. The net effect (if the model guidance is correct) would be for showers and some thunder to be able to form close to the east coast, especially from near Vero/Ft Pierce and North toward the Cape after 11AM up through early afternoon and then work inland, much like yesterday. There is the potential for storms to hang back closer toward the coast over Central to South Central as well a bit longer than yesterday if the guidance is correct, but overall, today might end up not a whole lot different than yesterday when 5pm rolls around.

The Notes Spell It Out,  Lower than Usual Confidence for Today (noted)

The only difference so far (given it is still quite early in the morning and much could change when the next model runs come out) is it is even more difficult to find any particular area for late afternoon that appears more favorable for  'more robust activity' than any other area. 

The area that is latest to be 'turned over' by cloud cover and/or rainfall is more than likely to be the area that will end up having the most electrically charged storms with stronger wind gusts possible (and that would seem to be somewhere around the Polk County north into Lake County and perhaps Western Volusia County zones up toward Ocala and along the west side of the Suwannee River Basin (not forgetting anywhere along I-10).  

MONDAY: Transitional day, looking very 'typical' with mainly inland storms but working closer to the east coast near and north of I-4 (Volusia), though inevitably the finer details which can make a big difference at times will need to be looked at again "Come Monday".

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: No change to previous reasoning of the past several posts.  SW flow aloft would enable activity to come much closer to East Coast Communities, who might hope for some rainfall, as it looks like by Friday into early or much of next week, those areas might end up lacking in the rainfall category. The flow does not look strong enough to preclude the east coast sea breeze though except possibly from Central Volusia County and north.

FRIDAY-NEXT WEEKEND  Deeper easterly flow so far is being indicated to last for 4-6 days to commence Friday after noon time, though we have now entered the realm of  impossibilities, esp. in regard to how long the more easterly flow will last.

Beach Goers  Spared of having to abandon ship
Who Moved the Rockies East?

Unlike.... 4 days ago

Lottery-Like Rain Chances Most Likely Inland

"Mirrors of Yesterday"

...and tomorrow...your ship comes in....

TODAY: The 'dry slot' noted in yesterday's blog post never really cleared the area of Central Florida as it moved in (thus, no rains showers at present time) as the GFS showed would occur, but is in the process of 'filling' in from the north and from the south, but mostly it appears on animations from satellite imagery from the east. The drier air is mainly in the lower portions of the mid levels and would therefore delay convection timing across Central/South Central from yesterday when some had already occurred by this time yesterday. The KSC sounding was showing a convective temperature which has already been passed  hours ago, and a CAP strength of 4 which is quite high and difficult to break under the circumstances  -  more moisture, boundary collisions, and greater instability will be essential to surpass that threshold which should be possible by later today; however by that time, the sea breeze on the east coast would be at least as far inland as I-95 (supposedly as climatology goes at least). Steering is close to "Nil" today (as upper level winds across Central at least are being dictated by the near zero point of the ridge axis. South Florida has a much greater East to West steering gradient in place.  

 There could be some greater concentrations in a few select
 areas of 'the more active type' , late today. But isolated cases does not necessarily mean weaker

SUNDAY:  The GFS forecast sounding (Global Forecast System model) for tomorrow morning across Central at least is hilarious, with winds at near 25,000 ft close to  0 (zero) mph. and below, less than 5 kts from a general southerly direction. It is showing two strips of greater atmospheric moisture, one almost directly over where it currently is most dry ( near Central Florida) and another over North Florida. The ridge axis across Florida should begin to slowly creep south in response to the 'Arguably debatable Polar-non-Polar 'Vortex'" which has been more trouble than it's worth to discuss, as that 'area in SE Canada, deepens southward, also bringing a cold front through much of the country which is becoming weather headlines in some areas (of bad news for some around the Great Lakes, but good news for those wanting to save on A/C billings).

In any case, tomorrow looks to be the transition day as is part of Monday leading into Tuesday - Thursday which will be a new story for all of Florida in regard to storm motions. These days will be problematic though, as it is now being shown that all things are not created equal when it comes to moisture distribution in a rather weak southwest flow aloft. For those in need of rain on the beaches, this might be the better time period chance to receive some.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: Shift change, updates forth-coming on a daily basis as steering is more deliberately from the SW, but weak enough not to off set east coast sea breezes except perhaps north of I-4.

BEYOND: Too soon to be definitive, but it does look at least like a return to NIL flow or even a pressing toward the west side will be in the offing at some point going into next weekend.

The Moon Sets- Sun Rise

Horse Latitudes, Doldrums, or The Dog Days?

"Oh Thank Heaven for 7/11"  - On this day last year (Cape Canaveral on 528 Cswy) 

TODAY: The looming dry-slot to the East of Florida advertised a few days ago and has been a thorn in some NWS forecasters sides per forecast discussions to affect the weather over Central Florida on Saturday (perhaps?) is working its way into South Florida as we type or read.

Lower PWAT air (Precipitable Water) is shown as of 5AM.
It is only working very slowly westward  and will fill to some degree with time

For the most part...today looks much like yesterday at first glance other than the dry slot which will primarily be affecting the weather over Southeast Coastal Florida during daylight hours. What remains of it could enter East Central during the overnight , but be out of the area by noon on Saturday (which is a change in the thinking from the last time this was referred to in a blog post).

See  See the Difference between the Horse Latitudes and The Doldrums here

TODAY: The big question for today for one area of interest is mainly East Central Florida prior to 3pm time frame. The NAM model (which is seldom trusted lately) but also the GFS indicate a chance of showers from mid-morning into the afternoon from near Cape Canaveral and north. Despite that the low level ridge axis lifts north of the area, the upper level winds are more southerly yet extremely light. This could in effect result in reformation of showers closer to the coast as a result of outflow from activity just to the west of the coast, but not so sure model guidance has the local weather so pegged to that degree. Otherwise, the more favorable areas for typically more 'predictable' thunder activity appears to be along the west coast later in the day.

Today might be a day of  'curious anomalies' thus the zone in question. Latest forecast RAP model soundings shows conditions favorable again for waterspouts (one was spotted off South Cocoa Beach during the early evening hours from a line of towering culumus showers right near sunset regardless of strong onshore sea breeze winds on the beaches).  Winds aloft are forecast so light in the RAP (not so much the GLobal Forecast System - GFS) , that at 2PM today one is hard pressed to find winds stronger than 5 kts clear up to 20,000 ft . With ample moisture to be near a PWAT (Precipitable Water) of 2.00" north and west of the dry slot and such light winds and assuming the high clouds currently seen streaming in from the NE into parts of this area might dissipate, almost anything could (or could not) happen. The forecast is for those winds to change direction and therefore put an end to the high clouds.

SATURDAY: Again, guidance has shifted gears and is no longer calling for a flat out 'free day' from the rains in many areas. Steering could be more SW (but again extremely light) over mainly North Central  which would allow some storms to generate close to the east coast through mid afternoon at least. This is July for you though.  The best bet at this conjuncture is perhaps showers along the Intracoastal prior to 1pm and working inland with the incoming strengthening east coast sea breeze, though if yesterday was any indicator, it might not fully manifest until very late in the afternoon which changes many things for those of interest at the beaches and for boating activities primarily.

View from a Previously Severe Warned Storm as it Approached
Canaveral Hospital (lower left) on Wednesday 

FOREGOING SUNDAY for now as Saturday might be a good pre-curse-ing indicator of what will occur Sunday.

See Some Various Notions on Why the Dog Days?

MONDAY-THURSDAY: A fairly unusual 'cool bout' to impact much of the nation as the next lobe of energy rounds the 'Infamous Polar Vortex' region deepening the upper level trough over the eastern 1/3 of the country, and thus propelling  a cold front southward across much of the country and well into the Deep South with low mornings temperatures in many areas in the 50Fs range or even some upper 40Fs.

 Florida will avoid the cold temperatures, but the net effect noted previously will be to put the state in SW flow aloft which will favor the interior and east side for afternoon thunderstorms under the pretense that dry air will not be entrained into this flow. Earlier indications were that a few of these days could be 'early onset' days for rains, but it's too early in this stage to make that call with much certainty.

Atmospheric Limp Wet Rag, Very Like July

"Lone Cabbage Fish Camp on Wednesday Evening"

TODAY: if the atmosphere was but a limp wet rag, today is just about like one with winds less than 10 kts all the way to nearly the jet stream level and variable in direction. With little steering to speak of, some areas could get a a large amount of rainfall today while nearby others remain dry. Suspect more areas will be dry as opposed to wet but cloud coverage will increase especially away from the coasts as the day wears on. Storm motion will be 'close to non-existent' (very slow) but  forward propagation along outflow boundaries, cloud lines, and lake/sea breezes will provide for more of an apparent motion.  Conditions are actually good for waterspout formation near to just off shore should towering clouds find the opportunity to present themselves in any given area earlier in the day.

It could rain/thunder almost anywhere, this graphic is showing perhaps where activity will be most focused  after 4pm 

Severe Thunderstorm over the boggy swamps east of  'OIA'

TOMORROW/WEEKEND: No change in thinking from previous few posts. Most activity will remain away from the coasts once the sea breezes commence, though steering in any one direction is no longer an option, today appears to be more reflective of future days rather than either coast (side of the state) being significantly more favored than another (or apparently so).

Same Storm Closer Up

BEYOND: No changes until around Monday -Wednesday or perhaps Thursday when another trough deepens over the eastern U.S. and presses the Atlantic Ridge axis which is now generally across Central Florida back to the South for a few days resulting in a bit more of  a west to east storm motion, or at least propagation tendency..

Same Storm attempting to reach the coast by dying out in the process 

Heavy Rain/Frequent Lightning 'Creeping Charlie' Storms Possible Today

"A Couple Caught in The Storm on Wednesday"

TODAY: As noted in the previous post, today would look much like yesterday with some minor exceptions. The sky is remarkably cloud free over a large diagonal swath of the state as of 11AM, otherwise some shower and thunder activity off the west coast and SE Florida are the harbingers of things to come by mid-late afternoon into early evening. Since little has changed in any of the parameters of notable nature and winds aloft are nearly unchanged, expect again with good heating for a thermal heat low to form near Lake Okeechobee to encompass the inland area of the South Half of the peninsula as sea breezes from both coasts work inland. It is in general in that area that the rains 'could theoretically' focus their attention on early this evening. Whether activity will arise near or on the incoming east coast sea breeze as close to the Cape Canaveral/Kennedy area as was the case yesterday is unknown but is not shown to occur today. The hot spot could end up being near Vero Beach along the east coast sea breeze/Lake Okeechobee (The Big Lake) breeze intersect in Martin / St. Lucie County areas.

The area that is most clear as of 11AM might end up the most wet by day's end

Though steering is from the west/southwest it is only about 10 kts or less, which is close to negligible, thus most storm apparent motions will more be due to propagation along boundaries of various sorts such as lake breezes/ the sea breezes/and outflow boundaries, as well as where any pre-existent boundaries might remain from yesterday.  In general then, the storms will act almost as unpredictably as creeping charlie over taking a well manicured lawn  with the 'weeds' taking the path of least resistance to areas most favorable for further growth.

THURSDAY:  The 06z run of the Global Forecast System (at least) has shifted its tune slightly for future days. It no longer was so absolute  about forcing activity Thursday through Sunday completely to the west side of the state but seemed to be raising a middle ground with a more southerly to light and variable flow pattern which favored just about anywhere in the mid-late afternoon to early evening away from the coasts (however, the 06z run can have some notoriously off kilter output, so this is questionable) . There still appears one day might be a tad drier than the others and that one is Saturday (somewhere over South Central Florida perhaps).

Otherwise, guidance sticks to another stronger vort lob to rotate around the low pressure area in the "Polar Vortex" region of Eastern Canada which  will deepen it southward and thus shunt the Atlantic Ridge axis south resulting in a more west to east steering come Monday through Wednesday of next week (toward the east coast for late day activity once again).

Subtle Pattern Shift / Different Outcomes Today & Wendesday

"Morning Thunderstorm at Sea"

TODAY: Subtle changes in the pattern of late could have significantly different results on the resultant peninsular weather today and tomorrow. Large low pressure aloft over the James Bay area (of  'Polar Vortex' fame) is acting as a bit of a semi-permanent feature apparently in the next week or so, more apparent over the Northeastern U.S. but also apparent at times over Florida in regard to how it affects the placement of the Atlantic Ridge axis latitudinally across Florida in the mid-levels of the atmosphere where storm steering direction is dictated.    

Latest guidance indicates increased moisture over South Florida but continued a bit  drier north of a Cedar Key to Ormond Beach line , especially closer to I-10 (the panhandle region) as a fairly deep short-wave trough rotates around the aforementioned low pressure area well to the north, shifting thusly the Atlantic Ridge Axis further south today. 

Likewise and in response,  the short range RAP/RUC model and the GFS as well say that a more certain SW Flow aloft will develop by late morning toward early afternoon and prevail through Wednesday. The latest RAP short-term model indicates also that anvil level winds might come from from the SW later today, but in any case, the tricky part will come concerning how soon west coast activity develops and where the anvil tops from  that said activity ends up at, as these will dictate who gets cloudy too early in the day after sea breezes commence . With only very slow storm motions toward the ENE-NE many immediately along either coast could end up dry or with only light rains but inland areas driven by boundary interactions might be able to overcome any overspreading cloud cover as plenty of instability should be able to amount with a sunny morning toward noon time period.

Radar and satellite imagery prior to sunrise are much quieter than the past few days, and where activity is now in place is at different locations than the past few days.

Cloud lines could set up quite early along the East or West Coast, which 'might' be something to watch for in regard to an early day shower, but that is strictly a small potential. The greater impacts as usual will be from mid-afternoon through early evening. Expect many areas to be considerably cloudy by late day regardless of where it does or does not rain today.

WEDNESDAY: A variation of today looks to be in play, time will tell.

THURSDAY: Another yet again variation of today with another pattern shift (transitional period) beginning to commence to a less active pattern for some areas, especially on the east side of the state.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY: A few atmospheric dry slots and lifting of the Atlantic ridge axis northward will press storm activity westward for a few days as the Low Pressure area toward James Bay relaxes, but that is replaced by reinforcements sometime on Monday as it appears now), which will then change the weather pattern over Florida as well (*see Monday - Wednesday next week).

Storm Top Casts a Shadow on Surrounding CLoud Coverage at Sunrise

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK: Back to a variation of the pattern that will be in place today and tomorrow as the the low pressure trough deepens over Eastern Canada and shunts the ridge axis back south again, resulting in a west to east steering flow as opposed to east to the west of Friday through Sunday.