Another Round Of Interior Rains/Storms (Some Strong) Again Possible

Lightning Offshore the Cape Early This Morning 

TODAY: As usual, forecasts are changing while in 'recovery mode' from yesterday's  'weather' operation across the state. Not sure even the 8AM Guidance will really tell the story for what is to come today but will give it a shot. The KSC Sounding came in 'surprisingly cooler than models implied would be the case though suspect it might warm aloft from what came about earlier today as the lowest heights at the 500MB level are likely lifting out and colder air with it. 

Earlier there was a rather amazing lightning show which ensued very early this morning offshore the Cape area with near continuous in-cloud lightning.

The difference today, unless things change, is that the Convective Temperature at both The Space Center and down in MIA (Miami) was around 85F (as opposed to about 92F the other day), which means some good clouds leading to shower activity (especially across SE interior Florida) could get going a bit sooner in the day as opposed to the 3pm hours. More like noon time?   The Tampa Sounding came in surprisingly 'dry' relative to surrounding locations and the JAX sounding looked contaminated and will discard.

The latest HRRR and Hi-RES NAM (esp. the HRRR) is now showing greater coverage and sooner onset of activity than it did a few hours ago. What will be is what will be. In the all in all whenever activity does initiate..it will be near to West of I-95 and near to east of I-75 like past days with a few exceptions here and there. Best chance of activity to press off the east coast will be toward Daytona and North..though after dark debris rains , like last evening, could drift to the beach areas mainly from Brevard and north.

FRIDAY: Again, similar pattern with a big caveat . The NAM shows it to be 'quite active' with much coverage of showers/storms in toe.  Rather skeptical of said 'coverage' or at least the intensity of it being implied. The GFS does impress upon showers across the state even early on, but instability is lacking as it will be most all of the upcoming weekend. Local Forecast Offices (up to this time) are still forecasting 'good' rain chances with thunder as the models continue to advertise a rather stable and cloudy day with showers possible      instead. So will be interesting to see what comes out of it all. Either way..


WEEKEND: Saturday is not looking much like a stellar 'beach day'; there might be some improvements on Sunday...noting that the better chances of having good sun out early on equates to the better chance of thunderstorms and rain-showers later. So one can have the cloudiness and less chance of rain, or sunshine with a much better chance of rain. Maybe it will be both cloudy AND a good chance of rain just to make matters worse. Either way, the plus side is : 'It won't be cold !" 

BEYOND: The far SW Gulf will be sloshing high PWAT (Precipitable water) this way up to and in excess of 2.00" going into  tomorrow through the weekend. The 'offices' are all mentioning  that 'heavy rainfalls' need to be watched out for. For now , we'll just have to wait and see, as forecast soundings from what I can tell are advertising   near saturation through the column --  non-conducive for large and heavy rainfall totals and coverage; though , high PWAT conditions have been known to drop buckets in a particular location on occasions. So no  promises on the weekend just yet other than it could rain almost at any time under those conditions, especially in the later morning to early afternoon. Just have to wait and see.  Never hurts to play it safe too in the forecast realm with all that atmospheric moisture sloshing around. My experience says that for 'the most' part such conditions result in mostly cloudy skies with spotty precip.

Worst Drought Area Might See Some Big Rains Today

Chance the Some Storm Activity Could Propagate Off the East Coast as Light Rain
but more likely that Some Large Totals 'Might" Amass "Somewhere" over Interior Counties.
Watching Osceola and/or Eastern Polk County for now

TODAY: A bit different today than yesterday. KSC sounding expectantly came in colder aloft than yesterday and more moist. If it be correct and representative across a large enough area, steering from the WSW is a bit stronger today as well, at least north of Melbourne. 

Looking outside at the lower cloud motions, it does appear to be the case. The convective temperature was set at 89F as of sounding time which spells out at least 2PM for 'beginnings' but true going showers into storms is not expected to commence until around the 4pm time frame and to quicken on up from there on out.

Initially we could see showers form along the West coast sea breeze from the Big Bend area and south as well as along the east coast sea breeze near the St John's River Valley Basin (Northeast Florida), in tangent with activity in from the coast down to Brevard. Some of this could be quite close to the coast (to at least hear 'Thunder on the Beach' from Canaveral northward, to possibly moving off shore north of the Cape). Otherwise, strongest activity will have to with until sea breezes meet accompanied by early activity outflow mergers.

Chance that activity will propagate then south and west toward SW Florida very late in the day into th early evening. That area this morning is atmospherically more dry than Central Florida and by in large far South Florida will have to wait for activity to move into that area from the north as it looks now. 

It also appears there might be a remnant boundary across Central from just north of Sarasota toward the Mims area which might act as a triggering mechanism in that area early on toward the 3:30-4:30 time frame. 

Overall, the 'red areas' in the image above are to depict where there might be a strong storm worth making a Special Weather Statement or even a warning over...or even in East Central the chance of larger rainfall totals. The latest NAM model is hitting hard on the east half of Osceola County for totals of up to or over 3" by the time all is said and done today. So if for nothing else, will be interesting to see what comes out of that if anything, and would be helpful for drought relief purposes.

THURSDAY: Latest guidance indicates a variation of today with perhaps a late start and activities further from either coast. Again, and as can be typical of the wet-season type rains apart from any synoptic (larger) scale influence, whatever occurs the day before can have some influence on what will occur where at the beginning of the following day (though not always). There are some interests tomorrow in regard to a Launch at the Space Center set for late afternoon, which 'might' be threatened if nothing more than by extensive cloud cover for viewing purposes.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND; Again, guidance does really increase overall atmospheric moisture content in excess of 2.00" (today the Cape was showing about 1.74")  and thus spits out numerically bigger rain chances by percentages. 

I am still skeptical however that higher PWAT (precipitable water values) will equate to higher rain chances.

 It might mean but more cloud cover instead. For example, the last several runs of the GFS have shown very little instability at all in the low levels of the atmosphere and lower afternoon high temperatures during the same time frame implying cloudier conditions and more stable over all, even though very humid.

 GFS rainfall depictions do show showers/storms...mainly nearer the coast which is always possible.  Latest GFS run shows CAPE (convective instability) at only around 500 j2/kg2s both days this weekend which is very low (stable) as far as summer goes. By comparison today the CAPE is forecast to run around 2000 j2/kgs near the immediate east coast and 1000 -1500 inland.

In other words, not so sure it will be all big rain chances this coming weekend as opposed to cloudier. Time will tell.

Chance of Showers/Thunder (Isolated Strong) Today

Sunrise Monday Morning

TODAY: Changes to the overall 'scheme of things' at hand to commence during the mid-late morning hours. Temperatures aloft will decrease (become much cooler) as the influence of an upper level trough down the east side of the country becomes the ruling influence as opposed to warm temperatures aloft that were present under the reign of a high pressure ridge. As a result, the capping aloft which prevents rising motion will no longer be an issue that prevents showers from forming.

With cooling aloft, ample low to mid level moisture, and convergence along sea breeze / lake breeze boundaries we should be able to get showers and storms to manifest today. Much rain is needed to alleviate the now 'severe to extreme drought' conditions across a large portion of Central Florida.

Recent short term guidance implies even a rather 'early onset' as meaning beginning around 2pm near Eastern Osceola or Western Brevard County as well as up by NE Florida and far SW Florida as well. Exactly when activity generates and where might determine where any stronger storms will end up being later. 

If any area has a storm 'earlier on'..it is unlikely that same area would see the chance of a 'stronger storm' later as the area will have already been worked over (stabilized by rain cooled air).

Steering today will be slowly toward the east coast, with the best chances of rain being experienced at the beaches proper from Indian River County and North (though only in spotty fashion).  Many areas will not see rain today as well, especially near and west of Route 27. The stronger storms would like be a bit in from the coast nearer to the I95 region or even further into the interior.

The only fly in the ointment is a thin layer of cirrus clouds evident on infrared satellite imagery as of 545AM (see below). These aren't going away any time soon, but would watch to see if those wouldn't point toward a later storm / shower onset that guidance implies.

WEDNESDAY: So far, guidance points to a near carbon copy of today, but with perhaps a slightly higher coverage of activity.

BEYOND: Things begin to change mainly in regard to 'where' rain will fall, with a shift more toward the interior alone, and eventually (perhaps more toward the west side of the state. The models have been deviating a bit though in many regards in terms of exactly how much high cloud coverage there will be going into the weekend.

 Numerical output reads 50/60% chance of rain..but are they seeing moisture related to high clouds? Too soon to say. As noted yesterday, the rain chances even get a boost heading into the first week of June around the 3rd or 4th but am skeptical at this point.

It's Beginning to Look a Lot like Summer

Sunday Morning Paddle Out 

TODAY: Increasing dew points (running in the lower to mid 70Fs early this morning) means increased humidity.  Compared to 20-30F dewpoints (and lower most of the time in the winter).

The increased humidity with dry air aloft and a mid-level capping means nearly hot AND humid as well, over the interior during early to mid afternoon. The high down by Miami proper yesterday was 98F if that was harbinger. 

Today very warm with wide spread mid-90Fs inland and some isolated upper 90Fs down along the St John's River Valley Basin west of JAX into Central and parts of South Western Central Florida as well; warmest locations appears will be near and north of the Orlando area.

Otherwise, though moisture is lacking at time it is increasing hence higher dew points and a more humid feel to the day will be at hand as opposed to what it was like on Friday and Saturday.  Temperatures aloft are a bit warm so hard to see how deep convection (thunderstorms) could get really going today, even rain showers. On the other hand, with sea/lake breeze convergence at play with the moisture  to continue increasing...there could be some 'accidents' today resulting in showers across South West Florida and up along or near Rte 27 to west side of Orlando and/or even as far north/east as Western Volusia county after dark. That would be on the high end of the rain-chance potential spectrum, to maybe even have some lightning "Central very late". On the lower end of the spectrum potential is very little rain chance much of anywhere.

TUESDAY: Again, warm with a better chance of shower/storms as noted in previous blog post several days ago.  Guidance is still  rather bullish on overall coverage and is shifting around on where rain will fall. Will side with the more consistent GFS and place the better rain chances near to west of I-95 from Indian River County and north toward St Augustine late in the day with isolated potential any other interior location. Temperatures aloft are expected to be much cooler tomorrow , instability sufficient, and moisture still in place.
There is a bit of an easterly push aloft in place which might put the east coast beaches into the 'rain chance' realm after dark (though it would be light, unless things change between today and tomorrow which is always possible).

WEDNESDAY: Again, like Tuesday with seemingly an even better rain chance of sea breeze convergence activities up and down more of the peninsula but again favoring the more northern 1/2 to 2/3 of the state over  Interior regions. Again, chance of a push back toward the east coast or at least anvil/debris blow off making for cloudier conditions toward or after dark on the east coast north of Lake Okeechobee.

THURSDAY: Perhaps again a chance of thunder/rain however upper level cloud cover from cirro-stratus or alto-cumulus cloud decks might actually put a big strain of whether storms can even form, especially going into Friday-Sunday. ON the other hand, increased cloud cover means not nearly as hot for afternoon high temperatures. Will hold off on specifics for this time frame in regard to rain/storm locations or their favor-ability due to the potential of the aforementioned cloud cover coming into play make rain chances nearly nil except in some locations. Even without cloud cover this day, the more western side of the state is favored.

Heading into the weekend might not hurt to be watching for showers closer to the coast in the early morning hours toward late morning though afternoon rain chances might be on the decrease due to hints of increasing upper level cloud cover possibly all weekend. That would mean, 'so much for a completely sunny weekend' -- unlike our previous one.  

Does all of the above said spell "Wet Season!"?  Not necessarily just yet though 'climatologically' it can and has begun this soon, but also much later into the second week of June. The GFS implies what looks like  the more 'assured' reality of the Wet Season and hence drought relief to be more likely heading toward the June 3-5 time frame and beyond so either way it won't be long now.

"Risk' For Severe Weather Through Early Thursday - Could Wet Season Begin Next Week?

Current Storm Prediction Center Forecast (SPC) Valid through 8AM Thursday Morning.  Area  in-between the 'orange arrows' for blog purposes only
 (and at time of 'certain' interest only to the blogger for future reference)

TODAY: As of 8AM EDT the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) based in Norman, Oklahoma has 'upped the ante' on the 'Potential' for severe weather today in parts of Florida which could occur at various times (even into early Thursday at this point)  All modes of 'severe' are possible which would include wind gusts of 58 mph or great, hail of 1" or great, and a few tornadoes.

As of earlier today the greatest risk is across North Florida where at 10% tornado risk area has been sketched out. Their forecast will be updated again by 2pm this afternoon   A Tornado Watch is also  in affect as shown below.

The greatest risks are for 'severe category' winds and 'weak tornadoes'. See graphic and color coded key to the graphic below.

Though there is only a small amount of activity currently at time across North Florida (including a tornado warning at time of typing) it is expected that radar will look significantly different (much greater coverage of storms) by all model  in the next few hours toward noon and early afternoon and work south and east with time.  

In fact, in just the hours between 7AM and 10AM it has increased GREATLY. Earlier there was but one or two storms across North Florida. However, as of 10!5AM...the radar now looks like as shown below with the tornado warning shown along the NE Coast.  

Compare as seen below the difference of over only the course of three hours.

Radar at 7AM

Radar at 10:15AM

EARLY-MID AFTERNOON: By this time a new SPC outlook will have been released. Latest HRRR (high resolution rapid refresh) model runs have continued to imply areas over almost all of Central Florida, especially east central, could begin to see showers or even some thunder to develop rapidly and move offshore as winds aloft will increased along with the wind shear aloft and increasing helicity values as well. Some could start to form prior to noon time in isolated fashion and are not at first expected to be a 'threat'.  

Strongly suspect another Tornado Watch will be issued to cover the regions south of the current watch to as far south as a line toward Martin or St. Lucie County if not the rest of the state.

In summary, best option for the reader is to 'tune in' to local television broadcasts or whatever resources have proven to be most effective and efficient, such as your NOAA Weather Radio. Seeing the TV radar and hearing the analysis of what is being shown is worth the while, and would be advised (if possible) beginning early afternoon. Channel 7 usually does a good job but any channel will do.

Early Morning Depiction of the 'Sig Tor' parameter on the HRRR model.
Since that run these values (see color coded index) have decreased a bit but the general location remains the same .  Areas all the way down to South Florida are also at 'threat' going into the over night hours.
This could all change , however and as such
is not in the forecast from the SPC, at least not as of 8AM

OTHERWISE: Going into tonight, especially after 500PM things could really begin to 'ramp up' for all of Central South of I-4 and north of a Vero Beach to Punta Gorda line. 

The 'window of opportunity' appears to be rather long (up to 6 hours) for more than one event in any given area. 

Some areas will have a decent shot of rain more than once, as a result, going into Thursday morning when all is said and done right over the worst drought stricken areas even. A plus there.

AFTER THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND: Dry and pleasant with warming temperatures into the weekend. That is to say Friday - Monday. By Late Monday a new song might need to be sung for the beginnings of a more wet period per the last few runs of the GFS model.

TUESDAY- SATURDAY NEXT WEEK: Though this is too far out for accuracy's sake, it is being implied that another upper level trough will attempt to dig down the east half of the United State though not nearly to the degree as it will be doing so in the next 24 hours including today (and will be the cause of the Potential Severe weather being forecast).  

Regardless, with warming temperatures, ample moisture, sea breezes in effect and the climatologically favored time of year for the wet season onset, all parameters so far are shown to be in place for the chances of showers and storms in the afternoons mainly over the interior but even close to either coast (at first the east coast, then later the west coast) as time wears on. This will need to be revisited however for consistency during the next couple of days, but if so it looks like the beginnings of a slow but sure wet season pattern, which might come and go for several days at a stretch. Not unusual.

Chances of Eastern (Interior) Thunder - Even Rain at Coast (Late) Some Areas - Severe Possible Wednesday

TODAY: Upper level trough from the west is slowly approaching Florida (for some possible 'eventful weather Wednesday and/or Thursday' as surface ridge axis  which had been north of Central Florida begins to drop to Central and even South Central (weakly) late in the day.  Best overall atmospheric moisture is so far shown (and forecast) to be north of Lake Okeechobee today. Strongest 'west to east steering will be from near Melbourne and north though quite weak and not strong enough to overcome the east coast sea breeze from Brevard and South. 

The west coast sea breeze appears will be the dominate feature today and to press eastward the most and first across the northern third of the state. First activity overall for mid afternoon could initiate across NE Florida sending outflow southward and regenerating / propagating more activity southward with time..as more activity along the east coast sea breeze presses down  I95 across Flagler / Volusia Counties and then back to the east more into Seminole/Osceola Counties late day along the east/west coast sea breeze collision. Some of this activity might be able to press off shore with thunder mainly north of the Cape but some shower activity with 'rumbles aloft' might make it to the beaches from MLB and north.

Further south and much later toward the 6-8PM time frame activity will be strongest west of I-95 (as it appears now) near Seminole/Osceola Counties and Central/Eastern Orange county as well (perhaps). Guidance differs on how far South true thunder along I95 will manage. The 4KM NAM shows storms as far south as St. Lucie County whereas the latest HRRR prefers Central into Osceola County as the southern most activity.  The HRRR was way off earlier today though and seems to be latching on to what the 4KM NAM is seeing (which on the other-hand might be over-done) which liked the idea of storms even further south.

Will compromise between the two as written / drawn (image) above. Elsewhere, sea breezes from both coasts accompanied by Lake Okeechobee Breeze convergence could manifest some thunder over the general Glades area as well.

TUESDAY: For now guidance implies even more favorable for thunderstorms up and down the east coast in regard to the wind parameters but lack of moisture might mean 'no dice' on storms Tuesday ;   might require revisiting this tomorrow to see if that is still the case.

WEDNESDAY: Highly unusual pattern aloft for Florida is in the making. Upper level trough in a position that looks more like winter (with a 100kt jet stream as well) with strong wind aloft over Florida and appears ample instability resulting in bulk shear sfc-500mb of about 40Kts with temps running around -8 to -10C could produce storms with strong wind / small hail. GFS implies it is possible the east coast sea breeze if it can form will remain pinned right at the coast and have little effect an adding an additional boost to the storms if they can manifest. 

Precedent cloud cover is going to be a problem for storms to form is the big fly in the ointment (suspect) especially south of I-4. The Storm Prediction Center has taken a broad brush on this day as a result of the synoptic scale situation placing  much of Florida in "Slight Risk" for severe category storms on Wednesday already.

THURSDAY: Timing big issue this day, but appears instability will be sufficient from Oak Hill (well south of I4) for a storm chance again from Brevard County and South as long as the surface trough axis associated with the upper level trough does not press too far south over night Wednesday and early Thursday. Wind aloft this day in the jet stream up to 100kts. Could be an 'early onset' day if storms get going this day..and will be interesting to see if it doesn't end up being 'the day after the day' that ends up being the 'most interesting' in regard to strong storms (particularly for parts of South Central/ South Florida). The Storm Prediction Center so far is not 'out-looking' this day.

BEYOND: Drying out a bit and so far the Memorial Day weekend looks warm and dry though Sunday especially from Central Brevard and South along the East Coast might begin to see shower activities. Too soon to say at this point and will work on that as later (and more accurate) model guesses come out during coming days ahead.

Dry with Near Record Highs Mid-Late Week

Arcus Shelf on the Leading Edge of a Thunderstorm Encroaches on Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Cool start to the day with near calm wind - pre-dawn temperatures running between lower 50Fs inland to 60F or just above closer to the ocean's edge in a few locations in the proximity of warmer ocean waters now running near 78F (at Port Canaveral for example). 

Otherwise, mainly clear today and warmer than yesterday (mainly inland). Coastal temperatures might run close to the same as yesterday once the sea breeze sets in , mainly lower 80Fs.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Little change to the overall scheme of things. Again, cool morning Monday rapidly warming within the first 90 minutes of sunrise, even more so after the 10AM hour toward noon. Again perhaps a bit warmer than today inland though . By Tuesday morning morning lows will also be moderating. Wind  remains light.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: Implications being impressed by the Global Forecast System (GFS) model are for highs in the lower-mid 90Fs, perhaps breaching the 95F mark in a few locations almost anywhere well inland. 

Whether these will be 'record breaking or near-so' cannot say, as do not have daily record data available. The record high for yesterday was 92F (set in 2006), and temperatures this mid-week appear will easily breach that mark. 

Coastal temperatures will   seasonably  be   mild in presence of the sea-breeze with highs more toward the mid-80Fs but perhaps upper 80Fs to near 90F if the sea breeze were for some reason have a late start. With sea-breezes both being active  and moisture gradually increasing we'll begin to see more cumuliform clouds as well.

Toss that Beat in the Garbage Can

NEXT WEEKEND: Next chance of rain or thunderstorms commences Saturday. The GFS is minimal on rainfall in association with the frontal boundary that would herald the rain chances , however, so bears watching. Suspect it will change in it's outlook once Tuesday or Wednesday rolls around. 

Otherwise, the rainy season usually enters into the picture anywhere from the last week of May to as late as the second week of June some time. Couldn't be soon enough, as parts of Central Florida interior are in a "Severe Drought".

Chance of Showers/Thunderstorms Late Today through Mid-Day Friday

Evening Storm Off Shore Cape Canaveral, Florida  - May 5, 2015

TODAY: Rather complex forecast in regard to timing of 'potential' rainfall periods and intensities thereof today from late afternoon toward early afternoon Friday. Will use this post to describe one of the possible  scenarios that at time is being implied will evolve across two particular models --the NAM (North American Mesoscale Model) and the HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh)

Current initial boundary producing rains and some lightning across Western Panhandle (see below image)  is advancing east. This boundary itself is not expected to have a 'direct' impact on peninsular Florida. 

During the day increasing SW Flow just above the surface should abet in propagating the west coast sea breeze well beyond the spine of the state while the east coast sea breeze runs more parallel to the coast with a much slower inland progression. 

Sea breeze convergence coupled with sufficient instability and slowly  increasing winds aloft coupled with seasonably cooler air aloft could set off a broken line of heavy rainstorms and/or thunderstorms up and down the east coast from near Daytona Beach and southward sometime after 5PM toward 7PM. Further west expect mainly showers along the leading edge of the west coast sea breeze , mainly near Rte 27 and eastward.

Some storms (near or east of I-95) might end up being on the 'strong side'  , mainly from Central Volusia southward due to the better chance of low level convergence/forcing along the sea breeze and less late afternoon cloud cover in those areas.

TONIGHT: Meanwhile, a cold frontal boundary will still be on the approach toward Central Florida prior to sunrise Friday. Timing on the boundary is still a bit sketchy though it will clear all of Central before mid-late afternoon .

Latest NAM guidance has been consistent on potential rains and even thunder to enter into the region south of I-4 near sunrise but then again, could be delayed toward noon time or so. The areas most likely to be impacted by this secondary boundary appear will be north of the Ft Pierce area and south of line running from Jacksonville toward Cedar Key on the west coast (see below).

 Again, there is the remote chance of stronger storms especially along the more northern areas (e.g., near to just north of I-4), but then again possibly toward Central as well if the boundary is delayed until late morning. 

FRIDAY NIGHT: Either way, rain chances will end all areas from North to South - first by mid -morning , North..then late morning to early afternoon North Central..to Central to South Central heading toward mid-late afternoon. Clearing sky conditions systematically work in behind the end of the rainfall, but exactly when a good dose of sunshine will be the prevalent mode is uncertain.

 With these rains as noted thus will end the last chance of rain for the state for many days to come, at least for over a week to 10 days.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY: Clearing skies  on Saturday but much cooler with lows in the upper 50Fs to lower  60Fs ; highs in the 70Fs with a westerly wind. 

Sunday will start out also cool but warm to near normal in the afternoon with highs in the lower-mid 80Fs interior and closer to upper 70Fs close to the east coast as winds become more north to north-northeast and weaken.  

True Shower Coverage -Even Thunder - Possible At Long Last

Canaveral Pea Fowl in the scrub

TODAY: At long last after such a dry April (other than a few random showers) we have a 'bona fide' chance for showers, even thunder possible on this first day of May 2017. Granted, no 'drought breakers' are foreseen this week but can't hurt. Only 'threat' might be if a random lightning strike were to hit on parched ground, resulting in brush fire.

Otherwise, increasing deep south to south west flow will import some greater moisture through the lower levels into the mid-atmospheric levels as the day wears on as a front approaches the Florida Panhandle. The greatest chance for thunder is across the panhandle where the SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has outlined a marginal risk for severe weather.  Not sure how well that will pan out at least for the day light hours given the cloud cover over the region at time. Better chance up that way appears to be after dark from near Tallahassee and east along the front itself.

Meanwhile, increasing south to south southwest flow in advance of the front over peninsular Florida..and moisture convergence with ample instability and cooler air aloft should be enough to set off some convergence lines of showers mainly across the east half of the state from Daytona and South as the east coast sea breeze attempts to manifest and press inland. A remote thunderstorm possible, with the better chance of thunder appearing to be for Indian River, St Lucie, Martin, and Palm Beach Counties later in the day, possibly even a stronger one or two.

TONIGHT: As front works south the rain chance might again increase , particularly for Brevard County after midnight and before sunrise. 

TUESDAY: Tuesday might dawn for areas of Brevard / Osceola/Indian River Counties (mainly) with rain showers in the area, though nothing particularly strong, if even thunder. Rain could be occurring in the area up through noon time before the boundary shifts further south. Best chance of shower/thunder going into Tuesday afternoon will again be  Indian River, St Lucie, Martin, Palm Beach Counties and southward to Dade.

WEDNESDAY: Easterly flow with little to no chance of rain much of anywhere but toward the west coast of the state.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Another front will approach the area with the better chances of rain it appears to be North half of State, with Central getting its dose on Friday - though will likely need to revisit these days as they get closer.

WEEKEND: Weekend looks dry both days and pleasant with temperatures near normal with lows in the 60Fs and highs in the lower to mid 80Fs southern interior. Continues to look dry for quite some time to come as well.

Need Rain Chances / Thunder Today - Stronger Storms Possible Monday (?)

'Morning Surveillance' - Great Blue Herons , Cocoa Beach, FL

TODAY: Increased moistening in the atmospheric profile coupled with instability and late afternoon sea breeze convergence could result in showers and some thunder (possibly an isolated stronger storm) mainly south of I-4 and west of line from Orlando south ).  

The general trend is for activity to start mainly across South Florida and work north and become a bit strong toward Eastern parts Polk county late in the day

Otherwise, highs in mid-upper 80Fs well inland with nearer to 90F parts of West Central and interior SW Florida --more toward the lower 80Fs near the east coast beaches where a solid east to southeast wind will prevail. More humid today all areas though, regardless.

MONDAY:   Overall surface wind and winds aloft overnight tonight into mid-day Monday veer more toward the SSE at the surface and from the southwest (aloft) as a complex , large and severe weather producing system (which will produce 'severe' in parts of the Deep South of Louisiana, Eastern Texas, Southern Arkansas and Western Mississippi today) shifts eastward today and tonight.  Stronger storms could enter into the Western Florida panhandle this day. Otherwise -- 

Moisture and instability in place, and slightly veering wind profiles in place might be enough to introduce the remote potential for some stronger storms as noted in graphic below. Guidance at this time is split on the amount of coverage (if nearly any). Will run with sea breeze convergence coupled with instability and veering wind profiles aloft (though not especially strong) providing for the needed boast to watch for tomorrow with more details coming in all day today into earlier tomorrow anyway. For now, graphic below is a heads up for tomorrow for 'strong storms possible' as shown.

Any rainfall will be welcomed as much of the state is in a 'moderate drought' with a pocket of even worse conditions ("severe drought') across parts of West Central Florida toward Lake Okeechobee.

TUESDAY: This day will again be warm with wide spread upper 80Fs and some lower 90Fs. So far guidance implies overall moisture for storm generation will be less available and as a result expecting a chance of a shower or maybe thunder north of I-4 with South Florida remaining dry. Afternoon sea breezes will prevent these warmer temperatures from being realized unless it holds off until after 2pm.

WEDNESDAY: Strong storms possible Panhandle region again and warming again into upper 80Fs and lower 90Fs. Better chances of showers Central appears to be after dark toward sunrise Thursday morning as a front goes through but storms not expected at this point.

Later Thursday into the weekend: Much cooler than what we've been seeing now for a while. Lows in 50Fs many areas to possibly some upper 40Fs northern interior. Highs only in the mid-upper 70Fs. Breezy northwest wind to accompany the cooler air as well especially Friday into Saturday morning. 

Dry weather prevails for quite sometime again, 
after any rainfall potentials  which may be in place Wednesday into early Thursday.

Showers Along East Coast After Midnight through At Least Noon Thursday

Can't Get Close Enough For a Front Row Seat at Sunrise

TODAY: Another dry and warm day with very little wind across most of Florida , but some changes appear to be on the way. A frontal boundary will drop south from the north into Central Florida from before through after sunset this evening   Wind will shift to north to northeast to East northeast over the following 12 hours bringing in deeper atmospheric moisture.

TONIGHT: It will be a good 6-9 hours post-fropa (frontal passage) before any rain shower chances (for the most part) enter the picture. Suspect most areas that will receive rain will be east of I-95 until a few hours after sunrise as a weak coastal trough might set up coupled with potentially more stabilized air mass during the overnight hours over the inland regions. 

The coast's proximity to warmer waters plus what 'might' be a weak coastal trough aiding in convergence could give rise to showers moving in. Temperatures aloft will be rather cold and steering from the NNW-N might limit inland extent of activity initially. Hard to say if we'll be hearing any thunder but suspect there will be some isolated instances. 

Overall, appears the majority of rainfall tomorrow will occur over the East half of the state at least until mid afternoon.

THURSDAY: Again, rain chances appear could commence 'here and there' mainly near Ormond Beach and south toward Vero Beach sometime after 2AM and might be in place well toward noon time to 2pm. Eventually working further south. Rains could mostly be over with by mid afternoon (if not sooner) but hard to say for certain. Showers or increasing cloud cover may well work across the state as well a few hours after sunrise.


FRIDAY-SUNDAY: Easterly flow and drying to occur north half of state by late afternoon and more of the state for Friday through Sunday. Morning lows in the mid-60Fs along the east coast with highs in the mid-upper 70Fs as wind will eventually decrease from 15mph gusting to 25mph (tomorrow into Friday) to around 10mph by Sunday. Partly cloudy to at times only a few scattered clouds over the weekend.

Increasing Clouds/Rain Chances - Possible Strong - Severe Storm Late

Peacocks in the Tree Tops - Cape Canaveral Sunday Morning

TODAY: Second of two impulses (the weaker one yesterday) to cross the state near I-4 this evening. Latest guidance implies the potential for weak surface reflection of the disturbance to take the form of a fast moving but weak surface low associated with a developing frontal boundary.

Latest satellite imagery shows increasing cloud cover approaching all but far South Florida as of 10AM so areas in Central that are still seeing blue sky, the time will be drawing nigh for that to go away, maybe by the time this post is seen.

Otherwise, weak surface front pushed south yesterday but lifting back north will result  in more southerly wind going into the afternoon as opposed to the ENE wind earlier this morning. The next disturbance is still well west of the state but will be pressing quickly east late today and over night.

Latest 4KM NAM, NAM, and HRRR models all show a variety of 'potential situations' in regard to   severe weather. The HRRR is consistent with implying one or two rotating storms to cross near 'Dead Central ' or 25 miles either side of line from Tampa Bay to Canaveral sometime from late afternoon through toward the 9pm time frame.

Another shows something similar with one rotating storm coming in near Tampa Bay and peaking out near Kissimmee / St Cloud that rapidly weakens as it moves east toward Brevard.

Granted, such 'radar depictions' (and associated parameters) can't be trusted in regard to specifics, but that they show them at all bears watching. 

The NAM shows potent bulk shear values from 850mb through the 500mb level and even some bulk shear down to the lowest 2000 ft as a result of directional  and speed shear in the wind fields as one goes up in height.  Such shear values I'd think would warrant at least a 'heads up' mode and have shown so in the image below.

Instability, on the other hand, as typical for this time of year will be poor, and as a result the chance of severe is not great enough to warrant more than a marginal risk of severe for mainly west central Florida.

For Blog Purposes will include all of Central more or less just in case of a surprise pop up storm . Though even these wind fields are showing on the NAM they might be over done, but if not, the risk might well be warranted and a subsequent outlook by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) at noon or later today might show that potential as well. 

OTHERWISE: Outside of the chance of rain and maybe an isolated storm or two, the bigger story will be the 'return to January' come Wednesday/Thursday.  

TUESDAY: Front to clear Central around early to mid morning with NW winds of around 15mph or so. Cold air won't be on the way quite yet; this boundary will mainly dry the air out, freshen things up, and leave things comfortable until sunset approaches.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Secondary boundary to surge through heralding even drying air and colder air as well. 

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Quite breezy with winds 18G28 with lows in mid-upper 40Fs to maybe low 50Fs out on the Barrier Islands. Highs on Wednesday will be hard pressed to reach 60F north of I4 and might barely reach it even further south; though warmer the further south one goes. 

THURSDAY: Wind will weaken somewhat going into Thursday with temperatures well below normal all day. Highs to read the lower- mid 60Fs so nicer.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY: Progressively warmer each day, with light wind and no rain chances.

Rain/Thunder Chance Sunday - Tuesday : Winteresque Wednesday

White Egret / The Cove at Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Old frontal boundary that slid through last evening has lost steam across South Florida. Chance of a shower or two mainly far SW Florida today. Otherwise, light easterly wind today and sunny to partly cloudy with pleasant temperatures. Might see an increase in cloud cover near the east coast for East Central as satellite imagery does show the potential for more clouds to advect onshore (see image below).  

REMINDER: Daylight savings time begins at 2AM Sunday morning.

TONIGHT: Old boundary will be drawn back north in advance of the next disturbance approaching from the west. The boundary will act as a 'warm front' more or less and appears might lift back as far north as a Cedar Key - Ormond Beach line , though how far north it actually gets will be important in regard to how far north a 'thunder chance' will exist on Sunday. Will ride with that for now.

SUNDAY: Net affect of the lifting boundary will be for increasing moisture (from yesterday's and today's rather parched conditions) and increasing cloud cover going into mid afternoon. Surface based instability looks meager at best but for near the east coast, but cold air aloft will be present coupled with mid-upper level 'energy' (vorticity) in association with the first disturbance. Exactly when the effect of said disturbance will be realized (and there might be more than even two of them going into Tuesday) is hard to say, but for Central to Southern parts of Florida appears it could be as soon as noon to as late as 3-4PM. The later  the better chances of thunder chances. Either way, increasing cloud cover and at least rain chances increase later on Sunday but not for everyone.

MONDAY: Not all said and done just yet. Cold front still 36 hours away at least as yet another disturbance gets kicked by over-heard. This day might see much more cloud cover, and precipitation timing is much less certain though late morning to evening almost anytime is possible at this point. Again, chance of thunder. If better heating is realized this day, might see an isolated strong storm or two.

TUESDAY: yet again like Monday with still a rain chance for Central up to early afternoon or so. The latest guidance seems to imply a frontal passage sometime early evening or just before dark when much drier air and NW wind brings in a taste of early February to the air.

WEDNESDAY: Cool start with interior lows in the mid-upper 40Fs and closer to 50-54F beaches. Rather breezy NW wind dying down some toward sunset. Below normal afternoon highs - this time of year gets tricky as sometimes models under-estimate how warm it could get. GFS implies barely breaking 60F degrees this day, though numerical guidance has no problem with mid-upper 60Fs. Wouldn't be surprised however if was only see a 64F at best.

" Hey, Who Forgot to Close the Refrigerator Door ?!"

THURSDAY: Much cooler yet still with lows in mid-40Fs and upper 40Fs to near 52F beach side. Highs perhaps around 65F - 68F? (but at least the wind will not be an issue)

FRIDAY -INTO NEXT WEEKEND: Continued very cool mornings but at least the wind will be close to NIL or only very light by this time, even Thursday. Warming into the afternoons from lower 70Fs heading toward upper 70Fs by the end of the weekend. No rain foreseen at this rate for NEXT weekend.

Normal To Above Temperatures From Today into Next Week - Rain Chances Included

Bee on Aloe Stalk - This Day last year

TODAY : Wind becoming more southerly today, mainly ESE-SE and decreasing as we head toward sunset (most notably) and even more so heading toward midnight. East Central has a big 'cloud patch' over it as of mid-late morning (see below) but that might burn off or move out going into early afternoon. A few light showers shouldn't be much of an issue. Had a trace earlier at this location.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY : By Wednesday morning wind near calm or light all areas. Wind was light to calm in some regions of the state this morning but for the east coast. Much less wind all areas all day on these days and from there on out. A frontal boundary will work to North Florida in the morning and enter into Central Direct by later in the day. How far south it gets is still in question. The NAM model never gets it much further south than I-4 whereas the GFS, though it has backed off some as of the 1AM model run, continues to take the front down to the Big Lake region more or less after night fall. Exactly how far it gets will determine where rain chances will remain for Thursday.

For now will go with The NAM (North American Model) which I wouldn't normally due, but suspect the GFS might be latching on to the NAMs notions. That given, with cold air aloft and boundary undergoing frontolysis somewhere across Central coupled with rather cold air aloft, combined with sea breeze convergence with respectable heating of the day, might be able to squeeze up some thunder after all is said and done late in the day somewhere over the interior of Central or South Central depending on where the boundary collapses on Thursday, though more than likely only some showers (or increased cloud cover) would be the net effect. Instability is seriously lacking in any regard either day.

BEYOND: Going into weekend, even if the front does get to South Florida we recover our loses further north in the following 36 hours, and as a result warmer over the weekend with interior highs in the lower and maybe some mid-80Fs with upper 70Fs to near 80F closer to the mark at the immediate beaches. Standard far winds as they become southwest on Sunday ahead of the next front. Chance of sea breeze convergence showers might dwindle for the most part though we might still see some cloudiness as a result of the boundary with light showers possible.

NEXT WEEK: Precision is not the rule of the day yet in regard to when and where, but the trend has been for increasing rain chances as another frontal boundary attempts to make the swoop but can't really pull it off. The trend has been for the next front and the one thereafter several days later to lose steam somewhere across North to Central Florida but that is pure conjecture at this point. 

Just exactly where these boundaries find the frontal graveyard to be cannot be determined this far out. Either way, little chance in temperatures from the 'upward to normal trend' is foreseen, even out to around March 14th at least over the past few runs of the GFS. Noting however, that previous runs have showed even a boomerang back to early February like temperatures for a few days, but whether that will ever come into being is pure fantasy at this point in time.

Much Cooler and 'Briskly' On the Way Later Today

Paddling To the Light at Sunrise  Wednesday Morning - Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Cold front on the way into North Central Florida at time (11:45AM). The Frontal Boundary is expected to be near a Cape Canaveral to  South Tampa Bay line sometime around 4:00- 4:30PM as it progresses further south. 

Temperatures in the lower (to possibly mid) 80Fs could see a drop of 12F - 17F post 'frontal passage' from the time of the front's passage to within an hour afterward. Thus, for example, temperature at 4pm of 81F might be a breezy 67F just a few hours later .   Some cloud cover to accompany the boundary and possible some showers though looks like any showers might be restricted to an around of near Vero Beach and south (in general but no exclusively )  

With frontal passage wind will also make an abrupt shift to NNW-N and evenutally NNE.

Better shower chances today south of the 'Green line"

TONIGHT-FRIDAY: Though temperatures will drop into the 60Fs post -frontal passage, they won't drop that much more along the east coast from the Cape and South due to the rapid return of NE flow after dark this evening; yet will be rather 'briskly' gusting to around 20-25mph going into Friday with possibly still cloudy or partly cloudy sky at times especially up until late morning, Friday. 

Afterward, highs on Friday  mid-upper 60Fs near/north of I4 and near 70F from near Canaveral to Tampa and South -yet even warmer further south into the interior and toward the SW quadrant of the state.

SATURDAY: Wind to become more easterly with  lows in the morning lower 60Fs along the immediate east coast with mid-upper 50Fs elsewhere. There are pointers that suggest a slug of 'deeper' moisture and increased cloud cover, at least for a period of the day could move onshore accompanied by cloud cover and possibly some showers   in some locations. Highs again to remain cool, but cloud cover and any precipitation (or lack of it) could make a good 5F degree difference in how cool it might be at any given location.


SUNDAY: Wind begins to shift to ESE. Sunday will be the nicest day between late today through Saturday in the temperature plus wind  combined arena. Wind to die down a bit as highs return to seasonal norms but could still be considered 'breezy', especially at the beaches.

MONDAY/TUESDAY: Even  warmer yet still as next front approaches. So far, indications are the next front will not be much different in regard to how temperatures will be affected from the one currently knocking on the I-4 Corridor's Door this hour. Mostly anticipate another quick wind shift with the front with little in the 'rain arean' to accompany the next front as well.

Thus, no 'sig temp drops' expected for the next 7-10 days. Though it does not look like we'll be seeing any record warmth either or even much of an 80F degree reading (at least not at the beaches) --  more like near to just above the norm especially in regard to the morning lows (not so much for the afternoon highs though)..with very little chances of rainfall, at least not predictably so other than possibly today and sometimes Saturday.