Potential For "Overnight Warm Up" Along A1A Tonight

 The end of the coldest days of the 2020-21 Winter Season so far are drawing to an end after yet another 'cold' day today and again tomorrow morning (mainly inland and toward the West Side of the State). NNW to N winds during the day today will keep it quite cool (well below normal); however, winds are expected to become more N-NNE-NE overnight tonight, mainly right at the beaches (mostly from near The Cape and South). 

Most guidance is hinting at at WARM UP after midnight at some point between 2AM-5AM along the outermost barrier islands of Brevard (along A1A strip) southward toward Southeast Florida and around to the Keys -- that is to say, what I'd consider to be 'often the Warmest Location in the Entire Country' on some winter (and fall) mornings. Yes, the warmest location in the entire country is fairly often the Barrier Islands of Brevard and south through The Keys, and by tomorrow morning we might have one of those cases.

Though temperatures might fall toward dark I'm thinking they will level off in these locations and then even begin to rise slowly at some point after midnight. Thus, for those especially along and even East of A1A you might find warmer temperatures at 5AM tomorrow morning than what it will be at say 8-10PM tonight by as much as as 5-10F degrees (!). 

We will see. 

Along with any warming will be cloud cover as well. The Latest HRRR implies we could see some High Cirrus (rather dense) begin to stream overhead during the night which alone could stop or slow down temperature falls, but then we could see some patches of low cloud advect onshore as well. As you can see , there is PLENTY of low clouds just off shore the Florida East Coast as of NOON TIME this Saturday afternoon, as shown in this Noon time visible Satellite Image below.

SUNDAY: Apart from the 'potential' overnight warming discussed above, it will warm up anyway after sunrise (well into the mid-upper 60Fs) tomorrow, depending on overall cloud cover (though). Too many clouds would keep a better warm up at bay. Regardless, after Sunday morning the cold spell is OVER at long last for several days to come.

MONDAY: And that is not the end of it for the east coast. Latest 4KM NAM shows continued 'surging' of warmer air to encroach on the East Coast overnight Sunday evening into Monday Morning. Yes, Monday Morning along the east coast could well be in the mid-60Fs south of the Cape right at the beaches, or at least in the lower 60Fs. A 20F degree warm up from Friday and Saturday mornings...that is going into Early Tuesday.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: Normal to a bit above 'normal' temperatures as we warm up. Looks like a chance of Rain Showers could occur mainly along The Treasure Coast (Vero Beach toward West Palm Beach area) however sometime going into Sunday night and/or Monday, but Brevard looks to stay dry at this point.

NEW YEAR'S EVE - DAY: Thursday Night Midnight is New Year's Eve Night going into 2021. At current time the GFS model has a cold front stretched North/South Down the state of Florida on this Very Night. Timing this far out is questionable, so at this point it's 'the general idea'. It appears there 'might' be again the 'risk' or 'threat' of severe weather with this frontal boundary (mainly due to strong wind gusts). The model is showing a better chance of RAINfall though (at this point) than it ever did with the previous front.  So the overall gist is, NEW YEAR'S EVE NIGHT, especially after 9PM could become increasingly risking of rain chances, even storms - and be quite breezy - But at least it won't be cold (!)..it will be a WARM EVENING if the front holds off until after midnight, at least if one lives east of I95.

NEW YEAR's DAY: Latest Guidance has really slowed down on the timing of this next front AND held back on 'Temperature Impacts' from it as well. Actually, it shows the front not making a 'clean passage' across the state until well into the afternoon on New Year's Day - this leaves a lot up in the air (therefore) as to when exactly cloud cover and/or rain chances will end (if not begin even as well) during the time frame from Sunset New Year's Eve to Sunset New Year's Day.

 That entire Day, therefore, is still one big Question Mark in regard to Rain chances and as such temperatures as well. It looks certain at this point that New Year's Day will not be a cold day, but rather see temperatures in the Lower 70Fs (at this point).

FOLLOWING NEW YEAR'S DAY: No Big COLD Spell. Temperatures look now to be generally around 'normal' to a tad below with the next front is about it. Lows at the beach perhaps in the lower 50Fs and bit colder inland, with highs in the upper 60Fs, lower 70Fs with one Big Caveat. The GFS is showing a Very Sudden Change to occur just off the Florida East Coast overnight Sunday with a Coastal Trough forming into a Closed Low that gets quite potent. 

Rain chances near the coast pick up and winds make a rapid shift to the north...all within a 12 hour window. This Time Frame bears watching - looks very   'skeptical' at this point to me - regardless, it has been rather consistent in the attempt to pick up that 'something' might go on during this time frame which bears watching.

Coldest Christmas Since 1995 Possible - Storms/Cold Rain on The Way Tonight

 The advertised potent cold front is well on its way early this afternoon now passing through the Panhandle Region. Ahead of the front wind is going to be picking up out of the southwest and be gusting at times as cloud coverage comes and goes. 

Winds at the surface will be SSW-SW whereas winds in the mid-upper levels are from the west to west-northwest. Animation of visible satellite imagery clearly shows low level clouds moving northward at the same time high clouds are beginning to stream in from the west. This 'change of wind with height' (and strong winds aloft at that) is the main-key to the severe weather potential though there is instability as well mainly south of I-4 across the Eastern Half of the state. Thus, for BLOG Purposes highlighted only that area for any strong/severe risk (as shown above).

 Be that as it may, model guidance of 'simulated radar' is not really showing any severe storms - but despite that - strong winds at the ground could occur if a stronger updraft does get going. At this time, The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has almost all of the state under a 'Marginal Risk' of severe weather into this evening.

Otherwise, the COLD FRONT PROPER is anticipated (per models) to stretch (as shown ABOVE) across Central Florida from near Port Canaveral to Sarasota around 10PM this evening. Several models agree in this timed positioning of the boundary give or take two hours either side of 10PM. 

It might too be noted that light to moderate rain might occur AFTER the front has passed which means a COLD WINDY RAIN with temperatures in the lower-mid 50FS for a few hours AFTER the cold front passes.

Granted, by that time hopefully all will be  well settled in 'for a long winter's nap' - as it will be around midnight to the wee hours not fit for a mouse that the colder rain will or might occur during.

I've included the earlier 'Forecast Discussion' from the National Weather Service (NWS) from Melbourne (MLB) that highlights much of the same mentioned herein .  

It might too be noted that by Christmas Morning at sunrise temperatures might continue to fall or level off for much of the morning hours due to continued "Cold Air Advection' into the state from the northwest helped along with winds gusting in the 18-28mph range for a while. 

It is expected that most of Central Florida will not get much out of either the upper 40Fs or lower 50Fs on Christmas Day. This might well be the coldest Christmas we've experienced since 1995 (though that one was much colder, well into and below freezing for several hours).

By Christmas Evening winds will be backing off under clearing skies, but temperatures will also fall once again. Saturday morning will be colder than Christmas Morning, with low-mid 30F readings possible all the way around to the south side of Lake Okeechobee (in the interior regions).

Across Central Florida we'll mostly see 'mid to upper 30Fs' possibly even right at the coast with Freezings possible near/along the Route 27 corridor - though expect it might be closer to 40F along the outer most barrier islands. 

Either way, Saturday is going to be the colder of the two mornings, with Sunday morning not far behind. Warming trend, though at first slowly, commences Sunday afternoon and runs through until New Year's Eve.

The next 'bigger front' is on tap as of now to enter Florida on 'New Year's Eve'. There was one year I recall we had a 'Severe Thunderstorm Watch' issued on Christmas Eve followed later by a 'Tornado Watch' on New Year's Eve - that was at least 20 years ago, though I remember it well. The timing is about right between systems (one week) this time of year for such. At time, not anticipating we will see a  'severe thunderstorm watch' though with this system. The next cold front around New Year's Time Frame is at this point not forecast to be as 'potent' in terms of cold air.

Good Chance of Rain / Storm Christmas Eve - Cold Christmas Day & Day After

 Warming trend commences later today into the overnight (especially notable right along the Eastern most barrier islands by Wednesday morning) as high pressure north of the state drifts eastward resulting in northeast wind (though light) later today and all through the night. There is a chance, however, that the pressure gradient associated with the high pressure will not over-come the diurnal cooling effects overnight tonight, thus allowing a 'land breeze' to 'win the day' at the coast instead. Overall, inland areas will still be quite cool Wednesday morning, but the outer most barrier islands do have a chance that at some point after 3-4AM they will actually warm to the upper 50Fs to lower 60Fs rather than be in the lower 50Fs. Otherwise, no rain.

The warming trend continues through the 23rd (Wednesday) and into the 24th (*Christmas Eve) as wind becomes southwesterly and increases. We could see mid-upper 70Fs on Christmas Eve Day  -- it might even be one of the warmest days we've seen in a while. 

On the other hand, a line of potentially strong storms will be entering the Panhandle Region by early-mid morning and be progressing eastward ahead of a potent Cold Front. There is a risk that some storm activity might go up well ahead of the actual line too, specifically across South Central toward South Florida (from a line near Cape Canaveral to Sarasota and south) at any time after 3 or 4pm Christmas Eve. Though that is an outlier risk, the better chance of rain now appears to be at some point between 6:30pm - 9pm in the evening.

There is a chance still that some activity could be strong/severe but the official outlets are not calling for that to be the case -regardless, we will have strong shear overhead - so at least it could get 'very windy' when the rains come in , whenever that will be.

CHRISTMAS DAY - Day After: The cold front itself is expected to be situated very close to Central Brevard County along a Northeast to Southwest Line some time around 8 or 9PM and be plowing southeastward through the state with solid cold air advection in its wake. Temperatures falling through the evening and into the morning hours accompanied by wind  anywhere from 15mph -25mph with higher gusts.

Very cool and blustery ALL DAY Christmas Day - the NAM model suggests that Central Florida won't even reach 50F degrees this day, but suspect overkill. In any case, highs may only be in the lower 50S to upper 40Fs across much of Central/North Central Florida (warmer south). Then, as darkness comes Christmas Evening, the wind should start to die off and temperatures will really go down.

I've seen forecasts (such as from the Canadian model) showing upper 20Fs for interior portions of Central Florida on the morning of the 26th, but that is an outlier. Most guidance suggests mid-upper 30Fs just about everywhere and anywhere. However we look at it, it's going to be a chilly morning on the 26th and the 27th (not so much along the coast on the 27th).  

DECEMBER 28: There will be a gradual warm up toward 'normal' temperatures beginning Sunday afternoon but it might be brief, as it looks like a re-enforcing front is going to be coming through (dry) only to keep the temperatures to below normal (though not as cold as what will be experienced on the 25th through the morning of the 27th).

BEYOND: No big 'really cold' spells are showing up as of yet -- just for fun I looked at a climatological forecast series and it showed that February might be above to well above 'normal' in regard to temperatures . Who knows, maybe these up coming days will be the 'coldest' we'll see all winter.  

Cold For Christmas - Rain/Storms Today and Christmas Eve

 

Will leave this weekend post brief but to make out a few points in continuity from the previous post.

As of 12 noon Sunday, there is a rotating storm in the western Gulf west of Tampa Bay, which 'might' be producing a water spout or severe CAT wind. Will it make it ashore? Hard to know.

Regardless, the 4KM NAM and latest HRRR runs imply that some activity could hold together or at least get a bit organized as the approaching pre-frontal trough and cold front come across North to South Central Florida later today into tonight and through the post-midnight hours.

As shown in the graphic above, there could be some 'heavy' activity as far east as the East Coast after dark tonight. The HRRR even implies two separate periods of potentially enhanced activity across Eastern Parts , one around 8-10pm and another around 2-4AM Monday morning. The 4KM NAM not so much so though. Since surface based instability will be weak to nearly non-existent at either time, chances are if there is any 'rotating going on' in storm structures it won't be realized at the ground by anything other than some rain and maybe a rumble of thunder, but it would behoove us not to at least mention it as after all, this is Florida in the 'winter' time frame and well, 'stuff happens'. 

Point is for later today and tonight : Heads up, it could  'wind and rain' (or just rain) and be generally stormy (briefly) but then again don't be surprised if you see little to no rain at all.

MONDAY: Skies will clear out during first half of day across all of North and Central Florida on this Day- December 21, other than perhaps the chance we'll see a good batch of Jet Stream Cirrus clouds overhead during the day which would stifle any full on sunshine(insolation) ..otherwise, highs still up into the 60Fs and maybe a low 70F here or there. Not cold behind this front, lows generally in the 50Fs to mid-upper 40Fs across isolated inland areas.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Uneventful as wind swings from northwesterly eventually around to a light NE-E and eventually southeast direction by Thursday. Temperatures moderating to around normal and no rain foreseen.

THURSDAY: Here we are again with Christmas Eve and the big question of will there be severe weather and if so , when.

 It STILL looks like this frontal system will be a POTENT ONE with strong shear aloft both from Speed and Directional Shear. I'd gander we'll be hearing about this one coming up on the news stations once the week gets going, stay tuned (!). 

 All in all, the GFS has 'timing for rain chances' to set up sometime as early for Eastern Half of Central Florida as just after 1pm and anywhere up through 8pm - which could conflict with Evening Christmas Eve Services (too). But again, timing is still in question ;that there could be strong storms is not in question.

CHRISTMAS DAY: The jury seems to have convened and met with a verdict - COLD and WINDY on Christmas Day; in fact, this day into the next could be the coldest '36-48 hour Period' of cold temperatures we've seen yet with highs barely getting out of the lower 50Fs most areas. 

DAY AFTER CHRISTMAS: With wind letting up by this day, it appears to be the colder but less windy. The GFS implies mid-upper 30Fs along and west of US1 or I95, but again, this  is still several days out and will change frequently up until mid week next week at least; however, at this point the GFS has not let up on the Signal of Cold temperatures and word has it that the Euro model agrees.

A glance at the CANADIAN model shows that rain/storms might not move in until after 8PM Christmas Eve night, but does show cold air as well, even mid-upper 30Fs near the beaches on Saturday morning the 26h, the Day after Christmas. It also shows high temperatures on Christmas Day perhaps not even reaching 50F  from Brevard/Osceola counties northward. Brr...(with wind).

IN Summary - best chance of Rain and Storms is later today and tonight  (overnight)...and again on Christmas Eve Day somewhere after 1pm to as late as 8pm - 3AM Christmas Morning. 

The other big story is much Colder Temperatures Christmas Day and the Day afterward.

Last Fling: Watching the time frame around New Year's Eve for 'heavy weather' as well.

WARMING Tonight - 'Potential Severe' Sunday Night & Christmas Eve; ?

After a very cool start to the day with a wind chill effect, the wind this afternoon will begin to shift more northerly to eventually NNE-NE or even ENE by tomorrow morning. 

The net effect of the change in wind direction will be most realized along the Florida East Coast , especially from the Cape and south. Low level patchy stratocumulus clouds will advect in along the coast overhead and a modified air mass from cool wind blowing across warmer ocean waters will begin to advect (move) on shore, especially from The Cape and South late this afternoon into early evening.

 

This will continue to be true throughout the evening with continued patches of clouds and modifying (warming) air. It is possible that the 'High Temperature" for the day will end up occurring shortly before midnight for the Barrier Islands of Brevard / Indian River Counties, possibly parts of far Eastern Volusia County as well. Thus, by morning these areas could be seeing 'morning lows' in the low 60Fs when 'afternoon highs' were in the mid - upper 50Fs.

SATURDAY: Continued veering of winds to easterly will affect most of the peninsula after sunrise Saturday morning - warmer all areas with highs generally in the mid-upper 60Fs, some lower 70Fs possible, especially for South Central/South Florida. Partly cloudy to occasionally cloudy with maybe even a period of light rain patches along the east coast, especially late in the day to overnight Saturday night / early Sunday morning (but brief and very isolated if so).

SUNDAY: A complicated situation is showing to evolve over the northern Gulf south of The Panhandle Sunday into Sunday night / early Monday. 

The NAM model is really hitting hard that primarily wind fields at all levels will become increasingly accommodating for overnight severe weather with bulk and directional shear being the impetus. 

Let it be known that at this time THERE IS NO WORD out for even 'potentially severe weather' from official sources; however, given the NAM's consistency in the past two runs (and increasingly so) in regard to the shearing winds over night time , and the GFS starting to join ranks, it might be advised to give at least a 'heads up' being that a strong tornado recently hit along the West Coast on a day when there was not even a tornado watch.

MONDAY: The GFS/NAM regardless both point to the next rain chances associated with a system to be late Sunday/early Monday - the frontal boundary to pass through is not forecast to be followed by a blast of cold air but rather keep temperatures at to maybe just a tad below 'normal' for this time of year. 

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: These days look quite pleasant with lighter wind and cool but not cold mornings; the immediate east coast could see lows in the low-mid 60Fs with a light onshore wind component even ushering in lower to mid 60Fs  at sunrise with highs in the 70Fs. Cooler mornings away from the coast (west of US1).

THURSDAY (Christmas Eve) This period of time being a week away is still a BIG question mark, but be it as it may and given that this is a Busy Afternoon & Evening for many people for multiple reasons - will advise that don't EXPECT (or plan) that it will be an assuredly dry period of time. 

The GFS in the past THREE runs is giving a signal of rain, possibly thunderstorms occurring across the Big Bend into at least North Central and parts of Central Florida from late morning into the mid-evening hours. 

The latest GFS implies in my mind that without a doubt there will be Severe Weather (tornadoes possible) Central Florida Christmas Eve from 2pm -10pm time frame based only on the last model run (to note). Granted , it is WAY too soon to be talking 'tornadoes' at this stage - and the forecast will very likely change multiple times between now and then. For now, at least a heads up for a pretty good rain chance (for starters) for planning purposes if need be. More to follow in later posts -- and/or keep eyes and ears attuned to future OFFICIAL FOECASTS especially.

CHRISTMAS DAY: Given the above, will go out on the next limb - that being as of the last two GFS runs Christmas Day is showing up to be a cold day, "perhaps" the coldest day yet we'll have seen this season. The latest run is showing it to be , but all things aside that could easily change even by tomorrow morning's model run. 

All in all, the overall general scenario is that an active weather pattern is going to begin to take shape OVERNIGHT TONIGHT first with a Coastal Warm up (!) but then what follows in the coming week with all of its 'potentials' and variables in forms of weather will make things 'interesting'.

Florida Weather Page

Florida Weather Page

Clearing Most Everywhere on the Way! But More Active Weather is Not Far Away

 TODAY: Clearing line near SR 528 and west is slowly eroding and dropping southward behind the weak cold front boundary that entered Central Brevard - Orange County right at sunrise, which today was at 7AM .  Sunset this evening is at 5:27PM.

Only sparse traces of rain was occurring with the boundary as it entered the area earlier this morning.

Temperatures will be mild this afternoon along and north of the boundary, but warmer and bit muggier south of it. Otherwise...

TONIGHT: Cooler all areas especially along and north of I4. Tonight into Sunday looks like we'll be running close to "normal' for this time of year..50Fs and low-mid 70Fs. Clouds should clear out well, but only concern (if you could call it that) is how cool it will be along the immediate Barrier Islands, especially the eastern most beaches where a slight onshore component of northerly flow might end up busting a temperature forecast by being warmer --it might cool earlier then warm up some to lower 60Fs near sunrise from the Cape and south along the A1A strip. 

Too hard to know for certain. 

Regardless, the wind will be swinging around to NE to ENE after daybreak Sunday with highs in the mid-upper 70Fs depending on how soon mid-high level cloud cover begins to move in.

SUNDAY: Day should start mainly clear and cool (as noted above) with clouds increasing, thickening late from near noon time and on. Just exactly 'HOW CLOUDY" it will get is debatable. 

Perhaps most of the clouds will even hold off until after dark but suspect we'll be seeing a mid-late afternoon mid-upper level ceiling develop. No rain foreseen Sunday for any of Central of South Florida except perhaps after 10PM Sunday evening.

SUNDAY OVERNIGHT-MONDAY: Best rain chances to begin after MIDNIGHT and run on through early-mid morning. 

The biggest change since the previous post is:

RAINS arriving a good 6 hours later than previously thought

RAINs thus remaining a good 6 hours later than previously though; and

BAND of LARGEST/HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS 

has shifted south on both the GFS/NAM forecasts

MONDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY: No change in forecast from this point on. Fains eventually end everywhere by late morning through mid afternoon Monday ..clearing..then Tuesday will be VERY cool and unlikely we'll see 60F over Central/North Central or if so , barely. Lows well inland running the 40Fs spectrum with the Barrier Islands closer to low 50Fs and maybe some upper 40Fs for Tuesday and Wednesday morning

WEDNESDAY: Cool to cold this morning, it might end up being much colder inland this morning than models are showing as we should have clear skies and nearly ZERO wind over the state by then. Otherwise, the beachside is looking at upper 40Fs/Lower 50Fs mainly with light winds. Should be able to breach into the 60Fs everywhere this day.

THURSDAY: Similar to Wednesday only a Bit warmer all around. HIghs could reach near 70F this day.

Potential "Rain Event" Coming Sunday Night - Much Cooler Next Week

 

TODAY: Continued cloudy into Tonight, overnight and early Saturday. A 'cool front' will be slicing south and across the state late today into tonight and reach Central Florida proper very close to the 6-7AM time frame and continue southward. 

Most (if any) rainfall associated with the boundary will occur north of I-4, as such most areas will see little to no rainfall with the front, or if so only for a brief period. 

Temperatures across North and North Central will be much cooler Saturday afternoon and be a bit cooler Central whereas Far South Central / South Florida will not feel the effects of the boundary nearly as much.

SUNDAY: MEANWHILE, an upper level disturbance in the Mean Upper Level flow will be approaching the state and instigate the generation of a poorly organized low-mid level low pressure area aloft which will be enough to produce LIFT in the atmosphere as it approaches the latitude of South Central Florida (as it looks now). 

This could cause the old surface front to lift back north somewhat, but the real 'weather' associated with this system will not be 'surface based' - but rather mid-level. 

Regardless, guidance (both the NAM and GFS) are showing a 'swatch' of heavier rainfall or at least larger rainfall totals across ALL of South Central Florida from mostly south of a line running from near Brooksville toward Mims/Titusville area (on the north) and from near Sarasota to near Vero Beach/Fort Pierce (to the south). 

This looks like it would be a 'good moderate but steady rainfall' type of situation. The TIMING of the most concentrated rainfall as of the latest guidance is mainly from around 7-8pm Sunday night to near sunrise to just after sunrise Monday. 

Hence, most of it will be overnight (under the assumption guidance doesn't change). Rainfall totals are showing to be in the 1.00 - 1 3/4" range but there could be much higher totals in some locations, much lower in others. Either way, LATE Sunday (as the rainfall begins) through to at least mid-Morning Monday does not look very pleasant.

Current Satellite Image for FRIDAY afternoon over Florida

BEYOND: Monday will eventually see clearing once this potential rain event situation moves out - especially LATE in the day as colder drier air filters south. Once again, like this week, TUESDAY will be a very cool and breezy day with highs not likely reaching 60F across Central/North Florida - then Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as winds die down we will see again a cold morning though it does not look like it will be quite as cold as our previous bout was. 

MUCH COOLER Tuesday - Friday Morning: The stretch of cold weather continues all the way through Friday morning - again, highs Wednesday might not reach 60F either - we will be having NW winds but they will die down for us on Wednesday and Thursday - as high pressure should be getting east of Florida overnight Thursday night   we might see a warm up ESPECIALLY along the East Coast over night Thursday into Friday along the immediate east coast - then from there on we see a rapid warm up to much warmer for NEXT weekend.

IN THE GREAT BEYOND: Given the current upper level pattern and based on persistence it appears we might be in for another very complex system to set up along the Northern to Central Gulf coming mid December. There is a variety of solutions appearing from potentially stormy to potentially very cold to even just a prolonged Warming Trend. In general, mid-December is going to give us another SURPRISE weather situation necessitating that all forms of outer wear be at hand.

Shot Of Severe Possible Monday - "Extended Very Cool Period" Follows

 

Blog Post Forecast ONLY

(Risk of 'Strong to Severe Storms Associated with Strong Wind Gusts over 55mph -

Most Activity will fall 'below' severe (damaging) thresholds)

Rest of the Weekend

No change for previous days. Increasing cloud cover from North to South possible

over night. Sunday morning across Central will likely dawn with more clouds than recent Clear Mornings and as such morning low temperatures will also be 'warmer' (near 70F possible) as opposed

to the 'mid-upper 60Fs'. No real chance of rain foreseen south of I4 on Sunday with the cloud cover which might get 'extensive' late in the day especially. It will become most evident as the sun gets much lower in the sky (as it has been continually doing now seeming every day).

Monday

Cold front to cross all of Central From I-4 and South

During the course of time since the previous post model guidance (at least the NAM and GFS) has come to much closer agreement in regard to THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. 

The 'Timing" has slowed down 'CONSIDERABLY" from the previous post from 'Early Monday morning' to now Late in the Afternoon (at least as far as the Florida east coast South of I4 is concerned).

For example, what looked like an 8AM frontal passage for 'East Central Florida" is now

forecast to occur closer toward 6PM Monday evening (!) Thankfully, then - we won't be wasting Day Light with Cold Weather moving in (albeit, we could be seeing a lot of cloud cover and some storm activity moving in). 

Most likely the Lake - Orange-Seminole-Volusia County areas will see rain chances pick up with Strong (possibly severe storms) anytime from around 10AM through about 3PM - that risk then progresses east and southward to East Central and South Central prior to and during sunset hours. Granted with all the cloud cover it's going to be 'looking pretty dark out any way hours prior to actual sunset'. 

Beyond the risk for rain and strong/severe wind rainfall TOTALS do not look very large at all (IF at all in some areas) due to the quick storm motion (strong shear aloft and we'll have a 100 KNOT JET Stream overhead while the 'storms are going on).

MONDAY OVERNIGHT-TUESDAY

Colder and MUCH drier air will swiftly find headway behind the cold front. It will be EASILY Discernible if you are out side that (when) the front has gone through. 

The temperature drop will be noticeable but not radical. Either way, morning lows in the mid-upper 40Fs to near 50F (a good 20 degrees colder than all these previous mornings) will be no picnic when coupled with very brisk winds gusting to around 24-28mph if you are out and about.

Very Cool All Day Tuesday and would not be surprised if most areas of Central and North Central do not even reach 60F . Expecting highs in mid-upper 50Fs for the most part except Far South Central/South Florida.

WEDNESDAY MORNING

Likely the coldest morning of the next few however, wind will quickly wane after dark Tuesday evening. High pressure at the lower levels will be moving overhead and the pressure gradient as such to decrease significantly. Wednesday might dawn with winds generally less than or near 5mph (esp. inland); I suspect there will be a wind along the beaches/barrier island because of the 'yet warmer near shore and river temperatures" alone - the warmer waters can produce a breeze even apart from any pressure gradients this time of year. Hence, there might still be a 'wind chill effect' at the beaches even if it's not as literally 'cold' at those locations.

WARM UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH-

FRIDAY AND POSSIBLE SEVERE AGAIN

QUICK warm up noticeable Wednesday afternoon, 

with another front / Storm System on the way.

Warmer both on Wednesday and Thursday morning-afternoon with details to follow.

Another storm system might be in the making for  the Eastern GULF of Mexico

to impact most of Florida by Friday (or Thursday night even) This storm system (if it forms) has it appears now to have a greater potential to produce severe weather than the up and coming one

Winter Weather: "It's Coming..." (Soon)

 

"It's Coming!"

TODAY - SATURDAY: Not much in the next few days to speak of other than 'moderating temperatures 'and pleasant. There might be a chance of showers (especially near the coast late overnight tonight) but otherwise pleasantly seasonal to slightly above seasonal norms (especially inland away from the ocean). Light, mostly ENE wind shifting more toward the southeast in the next few days with nearly clear to partly cloudy skies due to marine stratocumulus clouds coming in off the Atlantic near shore waters, effective from the warmer Gulf Stream waters.

SUNDAY: Cold front in the panhandle approaches 'down state' late in the day to overnight. There might be a risk of strong to severe storms across all of the panhandle in association with the front (however), and though shear overhead will be strong over all of Central Florida instability looks to be meager to non-existent and mostly due to speed rather than directional shear, which would normally equate to 'windy rainshowers' in the absence of instability at the lower levels.

MONDAY: Timing is still in question as to exactly when the full -fledged front will complete it's translation down the state. The time frame being anywhere from late Monday to mid-day Tuesday (as it stands now). Going for the most recent GFS release the front will go through on Monday morning but the driest air lags behind a good 12 hours or more. Suspect that model will pull it's act together a bit better in future days and resolve itself to a complete fropa (Frontal Passage) to occur on MONDAY completely. 

Either way, based on the timing of the GFS (other models aside) the first COLD MORNING of Winter 2020-2021 would be NEXT TUESDAY. Lows anywhere in North Central to Central Florida in the lower 40Fs through to near 50F and across the 30Fs over North Florida, and as you might expect, Windy at the same time. 

This will be a 'Shock to the System" type of frontal passage as all first true cold frontal passages tend to be over the state early in the season. We will have just gone through highs in the lower (to even some mid-80Fs) for several days in a row all through the Thanksgiving Weekend  so  a sudden 20-30F degrees temperature drop isn't exactly a yawn to experience.

Even Tuesday afternoon is  showing up to not even reach 60F but rather mid-upper 50Fs. Will this change? My guess is yes. The GFS sometimes (or even frequently) over-blows cold air intrusions beyond day 4 and we are still talking a week away. No matter how you slice it though the model has been consistent for several days that "It's Coming!" (in some form or another). And from the looks of it this first front may not by any means be the end of it, but rather only the HERALD of things to come a few days later (as if once was not enough).

For now, and chances are THIS PART ESPECIALLY WILL CHANGE, the model indicates a rapid recovery going into Wednesday-Thursday with yet another system approaching and perhaps again a risk of severe weather mainly due to wind shear (which again might not amount to much other than 'windy rain showers". 

It's the next reinforcing 'blast' that will fully assert if there was any question about it that indeed winter is on the door step --  for by Thursday into Friday and for SEVERAL DAYS beyond we will be seeing temperature below to much below 'normal' with another frontal passage. 

So the gist of this post without going into details was for a 'heads up'...we have MUCH to be THANKFUL FOR this year (and always)...Grace came and comes at a Very High Price for us -- with every breath even - but that doesn't preclude that weather comes too with it's own form of Highs and Lows. 

Unfortunately, tis the season for uncomfortable lows rather than unpleasant Highs (of summer).

BETA Version of ETAs Possible Impacts - Mainly Late Tonight - Monday

 

High Speed Dirt's 'Forecast' Tornado Risk Areas

for Tonight - Monday

TODAY: Little change from yesterday's post - ETA is emerging off the North Central Cuban Coast late this morning. Weakening occurred over the mountainous terrain but strengthening and organization even further highly expected throughout the day and into this evening, early Monday.

RAIN CHANCES: Given the weakening of system and latest data showing a sharp demarcation line of very moist atmosphere to not nearly as much (nor as deep) expect that most rain today at least in any true measurable amounts will remain over mainly South and far South Central Florida. There could be a few quick sprinkles further north, but for the most part today looks to be a 'status quo with what you got now as of late morning' situation until ETA gets reorganized AND begins to expand its wind field which is still anticipated going into mid-evening tonight through mid-morning Monday.

Expecting the rain chances to almost 'suddenly emerge' into South Central but more specifically from near Ft Pierce northward to North Brevard County after 2-3 AM tonight, with a more discrete/heavier rainstorm/squall quality/nature to it rather than as a predominant rain shield as is currently at play. 

This change in nature (if of course it occurs) would be due to a nocturnal wind max in the mid-levels combined with the storm's expanding wind field in the 2000-7000 ft. level above ground adding to helicity and shear as this occurs. 

Discrete cells thus will be more likely mid evening tonight (South Florida and moreso  toward the wee-hours post-midnight tonight -- especially where the 5000 ft level winds expand/radiate outward from at least Ft Pierce if not further north than that. Thus, for folks north of Ft Pierce the more likely time for this storm activity we've all been hearing about emerges well after midnight but prior to sunrise, Monday.

It is possible storms will acquire rotation coming in off the warm  Atlantic water mainly from the Brevard /Volusia County line southward toward Ft Pierce during the course of events. Further south toward West Palm and south  the same can be said to occur (more likely) after sunset tonight through midnight.

PLEASE NOTE: This is only a blog post - and not official. Hence, below is the 'Official Forecast" from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) for 'today's' tornado risk area. Also note, the SPC has NO TORNADO RISK (as of now) for any other areas other than what is shown below. They show NO RISK for Monday over Central Florida. In fact, for Monday they only show a small area across far Southwest Florida - that is a big difference worth nothing from what this blog post is reading.

  

This image above shows SPC's Forecast for TODAY (in green) for 'Tornado Probability'

The HSD Forecast is that this area will begin to validate AFTER 8pm tonight or thereabouts,

mainly for far SOUTHWEST Florida then spread out as we approach midnight and thereafter.

The 'RED AREA" shown is the HSD Forecast as a result for late tonight going into MONDAY

with the area from Ft. Pierce and north more likely after 3AM and into Brevard by 5AM and thereafter into the afternoon.

The only change from yesterday's post was to remove areas further north than Southern Volusia County from the 'Risk Area"

Otherwise, strongest wind gusts/wind in general will likely be restricted to  near or over discrete rain cells/squalls. Outside the 'storms' winds will more than likely remain in the 15-30mph range including where the rain takes on a more 'shielded region' form rather than smaller discrete rain storms.

Strongest winds right along the coast will increase for South Central to Central LATE today (more notably) into early evening and remain steady and even increase more steady state going into after midnight coincident with the increased tornado risk. Again, all due to the expanding wind fields as the storm starts to interact with the Florida Peninsula's land mass.

WHEN WILL IT ALL BE OVER? It appears the 'worst of it all' will be on Monday. Thereafter the pressure gradient between ETA and high pressure to the north is to decrease even as ETA weakens (at least temporarily). Going into Monday the bulk of the storm should be over the Southeast Gulf, perhaps infringing upon the far Southwest Florida Coast.  There is still a lot to be said for the 'future cast' of ETAs  - so this post will avoid going into details that won't verify anyway.

Point being, as far as all of Central Florida is concerned , after Monday the wind overall will be much weaker than will be experienced today into Monday -and rain chances will also decrease (but not entirely). Rain could remain in the forecast into Tuesday, and perhaps we'll have to watch for a small tornado risk at least early Tuesday for some area yet to be revealed. Much depends on the storms future which varies in models anywhere from it becoming a hurricane to nothing more than a weak tropical depression...and where it goes is another 'Big If'...will it cross the state? If so, it could go anywhere from Central Florida to the panhandle, or simply remain over the Gulf and weaken.

Otherwise, temperatures to remain at to slightly above normal (especially overnight) through all of next week and rain chances decrease.

Will The "Elusive Tropical Anomaly" (ETA) be a SWAK Threat ( or "Where's The Rain-X?) !"

 

Developing ETA South Of Cuba Saturday Afternoon , November 7 2020

 

By now all are well aware that a 'Tropical Threat" is encroaching upon Florida later this weekend into early next week. For all official forecasts please refer to the National Hurricane Center   for latest information regard ETA and/or the local National Weather Forecast Office for your location.

To eliminate repetition of what all the forecast offices will be putting out and already are, this post will be relatively brief but also mention a few points that might not yet have made mainstream or unofficial outlets   

For "EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA" (specifically),  based on current timing of multiple model output consensus in general, the heaviest weather overall and onset  of it will begin over The Keys and Far South Florida  then progressively work north with time going into late Sunday - Over Night Sunday Night - and into Monday (most specifically for North Central and Parts of North Florida as far north possibly as even the JAX area on Monday and/or even Tuesday.

The Blog Post will make one observation (though not-official) and that is as you watch forecasts on 'TV" or other sources, realize that the 'worst of the weather' at times will NOT necessarily be near the central circulation (or whatever one might call an 'eye' ). 

IN fact, there is data output which indicates that the stormiest points at certain times might be well more than 200NM from the Center. For example, when/if  'ETA" were to be centered just west of Ft Myers (as an example) the worst of the weather could be occurring along the Coast of Brevard County, which brings up another point. All in all, the strongest surface wind associated with ETA appears will occur at the immediate coast from near Vero Beach and south, with gusts up to and exceeding 55MPH possible, with the secondary area of 'not quite as strong at times' extending as far north as near the Volusia/Brevard County line. So far, Brevard County is being 'pegged' in more than one instance as a 'potential' for gusts will above 55mph due to the wind that would develop at the 2000-5000 ft level above ground come post Midnight Sunday night into the first half of Monday as the storm's girth increases, especially after sunrise Monday.

Likewise, the largest storm rainfall totals from beginning to end of this event will be near to 50 NM of the east coast in about the same areas. That is not to say there could be isolated 'events/locations' further north or west as well.

Overall, based on current trends - ETA will be making it's greatest impacts all day SUNDAY (far South Florida) and then working northward overnight Sunday night into Monday. The most volatile (and unfortunately most dangerous time) based on current model out put will be from near 9PM Sunday night through to near Sunrise Monday morning from Far South Brevard county to near West Palm Beach.  Areas further north in Brevard would also see some 'active' weather in isolated storm cells PRIOR to SUNRISE Monday; however,  the bulk of the greatest impacts north of Sebastian Inlet would be during daylight hours Monday...of course, there is a 'timing issue' and has the chance of being 'highly variable' and changing over the course of the next 18-30 hours. Therefore, the 'timing indicated' in this post is for 'example' only.

 

    ETA will be the 29th  'Recognized' Storm System'  ever to occur in the month of November within 300 NM of Cocoa Beach, Florida.  

Also note that it will be the FIRST OF THESE STORMS to take a track that crossed Cuba then takes a LEFT TURN. As can be seen in the image below, all previously known tracks show storms lifting north and curving to the right

In regard to ETA and Central/North Florida - the heaviest weather from ETA appears will occur when the Storms Central Circulation (per latest official forecast track) is over or near the keys to  approximately 120 NM  west or northwest of Ft Myers , that's assuming the storm takes the forecast track.

Pay not too close attention the storms CENTER ! ..higher winds at lower levels of the atmosphere from 2000-5000 feet above ground could be just asstrong , if not stronger well away from the Center  , especially Sunday night going into Monday (assuming the forecast track holds). These winds could work to the surface in areas of rain bands resulting in SQUALL GUSTS of 70mph + (this is 'worst case scenario' type stuff)  I expect there will be large differences between the sustained winds vs. GUSTS during the time of heavier rain squalls or storms, especially on MONDAY.

This brings up the other "ISSUE" from the Blogger's Standpoint. 

That being The High Speed Dirt concern - or, in this case more like  Speeding Water of Another Kind (SWAK)

TORNADO RISK

All available data from the 4KM NAM, HRRR and GEFS shows that there will be a TORNADO risk and at times a possibly significant one from low topped tornadic supercell structures within or even apart from incoming squalls. Isolated , rotating storms appear will be most likely from the Keys along the east coast to about 50 miles inland especially OVERNIGHT Sunday night along eastern portions of South and South Central.  This risk could extend (based on current timing) as far north as Southern/Central Brevard County. But again realize, TIMING of all things referred to in this post is subject to change, which will mostly likely be the case. 

Bear in mind that The TORNADO RISK  at times could be FAR from the storm's Center 

For example, if ETA were to be 20 Miles west of Ft Myers the biggest tornado threat might be near the Kennedy Space Center (!), that far away, yes. That is due to the fact that as mentioned earlier, there will be sufficient low level bulk -shear and accompanying 'helicity' in the same levels, COUPLED WITH heat from the near shore Atlantic Water providing for some Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). So we'll have 'CAPE" plus 'HELICITY" and BULK SHEAR" ..  all occurring within the lowest levels of the atmosphere.   There could be, thus, LAND FALLING TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS or flat out tornadoes when they develop over land.

Looking above: The Greater Tornado Risk (working from South to North will be along the Florida east coast to up to 20-40 NM inland south of South Brevard PRIOR to sunrise, Monday morning, then from that point on the risk increases esp. after 10AM-11AM MONDAY as 'daylight' hours will provide additionally HEATING and the mid level winds begin to expand around the central circulation.

  

Will such activity actually occur though? Whether it ACTUALLY does or not, it looks rather certain that we will at least by hearing Tornado Warnings being issued (if not many of them) from Miami Northward possibly as far north as The JAX NWS office.

 Time to put THE RAIN-X on your Car and pull in the yard furniture and other outside things and be prepared for POWER OUTAGES in some areas and in some more prone areas (especially South Florida), flooding.

 At this point, 'storm surge' does not appear will be too much an issue THOUGH high tides will be running 'VERY HIGH" and could result in beach erosion, the rivers could also come up higher than normal ...

More to come ..another post will be made TOMORROW ...by then, we can monitor SEVERAL more runs of all available models I have access to - and also Follow THE TREND each model takes. This blog will be watching mainly the TORNADO RISK as the other information is posted FAR AND WIDE over the Media and made available most Readily over the internet from multiple sources, both official and unofficial.