Potential "Rain Event" Coming Sunday Night - Much Cooler Next Week

 

TODAY: Continued cloudy into Tonight, overnight and early Saturday. A 'cool front' will be slicing south and across the state late today into tonight and reach Central Florida proper very close to the 6-7AM time frame and continue southward. 

Most (if any) rainfall associated with the boundary will occur north of I-4, as such most areas will see little to no rainfall with the front, or if so only for a brief period. 

Temperatures across North and North Central will be much cooler Saturday afternoon and be a bit cooler Central whereas Far South Central / South Florida will not feel the effects of the boundary nearly as much.

SUNDAY: MEANWHILE, an upper level disturbance in the Mean Upper Level flow will be approaching the state and instigate the generation of a poorly organized low-mid level low pressure area aloft which will be enough to produce LIFT in the atmosphere as it approaches the latitude of South Central Florida (as it looks now). 

This could cause the old surface front to lift back north somewhat, but the real 'weather' associated with this system will not be 'surface based' - but rather mid-level. 

Regardless, guidance (both the NAM and GFS) are showing a 'swatch' of heavier rainfall or at least larger rainfall totals across ALL of South Central Florida from mostly south of a line running from near Brooksville toward Mims/Titusville area (on the north) and from near Sarasota to near Vero Beach/Fort Pierce (to the south). 

This looks like it would be a 'good moderate but steady rainfall' type of situation. The TIMING of the most concentrated rainfall as of the latest guidance is mainly from around 7-8pm Sunday night to near sunrise to just after sunrise Monday. 

Hence, most of it will be overnight (under the assumption guidance doesn't change). Rainfall totals are showing to be in the 1.00 - 1 3/4" range but there could be much higher totals in some locations, much lower in others. Either way, LATE Sunday (as the rainfall begins) through to at least mid-Morning Monday does not look very pleasant.

Current Satellite Image for FRIDAY afternoon over Florida

BEYOND: Monday will eventually see clearing once this potential rain event situation moves out - especially LATE in the day as colder drier air filters south. Once again, like this week, TUESDAY will be a very cool and breezy day with highs not likely reaching 60F across Central/North Florida - then Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as winds die down we will see again a cold morning though it does not look like it will be quite as cold as our previous bout was. 

MUCH COOLER Tuesday - Friday Morning: The stretch of cold weather continues all the way through Friday morning - again, highs Wednesday might not reach 60F either - we will be having NW winds but they will die down for us on Wednesday and Thursday - as high pressure should be getting east of Florida overnight Thursday night   we might see a warm up ESPECIALLY along the East Coast over night Thursday into Friday along the immediate east coast - then from there on we see a rapid warm up to much warmer for NEXT weekend.

IN THE GREAT BEYOND: Given the current upper level pattern and based on persistence it appears we might be in for another very complex system to set up along the Northern to Central Gulf coming mid December. There is a variety of solutions appearing from potentially stormy to potentially very cold to even just a prolonged Warming Trend. In general, mid-December is going to give us another SURPRISE weather situation necessitating that all forms of outer wear be at hand.

Shot Of Severe Possible Monday - "Extended Very Cool Period" Follows

 

Blog Post Forecast ONLY

(Risk of 'Strong to Severe Storms Associated with Strong Wind Gusts over 55mph -

Most Activity will fall 'below' severe (damaging) thresholds)

Rest of the Weekend

No change for previous days. Increasing cloud cover from North to South possible

over night. Sunday morning across Central will likely dawn with more clouds than recent Clear Mornings and as such morning low temperatures will also be 'warmer' (near 70F possible) as opposed

to the 'mid-upper 60Fs'. No real chance of rain foreseen south of I4 on Sunday with the cloud cover which might get 'extensive' late in the day especially. It will become most evident as the sun gets much lower in the sky (as it has been continually doing now seeming every day).

Monday

Cold front to cross all of Central From I-4 and South

During the course of time since the previous post model guidance (at least the NAM and GFS) has come to much closer agreement in regard to THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. 

The 'Timing" has slowed down 'CONSIDERABLY" from the previous post from 'Early Monday morning' to now Late in the Afternoon (at least as far as the Florida east coast South of I4 is concerned).

For example, what looked like an 8AM frontal passage for 'East Central Florida" is now

forecast to occur closer toward 6PM Monday evening (!) Thankfully, then - we won't be wasting Day Light with Cold Weather moving in (albeit, we could be seeing a lot of cloud cover and some storm activity moving in). 

Most likely the Lake - Orange-Seminole-Volusia County areas will see rain chances pick up with Strong (possibly severe storms) anytime from around 10AM through about 3PM - that risk then progresses east and southward to East Central and South Central prior to and during sunset hours. Granted with all the cloud cover it's going to be 'looking pretty dark out any way hours prior to actual sunset'. 

Beyond the risk for rain and strong/severe wind rainfall TOTALS do not look very large at all (IF at all in some areas) due to the quick storm motion (strong shear aloft and we'll have a 100 KNOT JET Stream overhead while the 'storms are going on).

MONDAY OVERNIGHT-TUESDAY

Colder and MUCH drier air will swiftly find headway behind the cold front. It will be EASILY Discernible if you are out side that (when) the front has gone through. 

The temperature drop will be noticeable but not radical. Either way, morning lows in the mid-upper 40Fs to near 50F (a good 20 degrees colder than all these previous mornings) will be no picnic when coupled with very brisk winds gusting to around 24-28mph if you are out and about.

Very Cool All Day Tuesday and would not be surprised if most areas of Central and North Central do not even reach 60F . Expecting highs in mid-upper 50Fs for the most part except Far South Central/South Florida.

WEDNESDAY MORNING

Likely the coldest morning of the next few however, wind will quickly wane after dark Tuesday evening. High pressure at the lower levels will be moving overhead and the pressure gradient as such to decrease significantly. Wednesday might dawn with winds generally less than or near 5mph (esp. inland); I suspect there will be a wind along the beaches/barrier island because of the 'yet warmer near shore and river temperatures" alone - the warmer waters can produce a breeze even apart from any pressure gradients this time of year. Hence, there might still be a 'wind chill effect' at the beaches even if it's not as literally 'cold' at those locations.

WARM UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH-

FRIDAY AND POSSIBLE SEVERE AGAIN

QUICK warm up noticeable Wednesday afternoon, 

with another front / Storm System on the way.

Warmer both on Wednesday and Thursday morning-afternoon with details to follow.

Another storm system might be in the making for  the Eastern GULF of Mexico

to impact most of Florida by Friday (or Thursday night even) This storm system (if it forms) has it appears now to have a greater potential to produce severe weather than the up and coming one

Winter Weather: "It's Coming..." (Soon)

 

"It's Coming!"

TODAY - SATURDAY: Not much in the next few days to speak of other than 'moderating temperatures 'and pleasant. There might be a chance of showers (especially near the coast late overnight tonight) but otherwise pleasantly seasonal to slightly above seasonal norms (especially inland away from the ocean). Light, mostly ENE wind shifting more toward the southeast in the next few days with nearly clear to partly cloudy skies due to marine stratocumulus clouds coming in off the Atlantic near shore waters, effective from the warmer Gulf Stream waters.

SUNDAY: Cold front in the panhandle approaches 'down state' late in the day to overnight. There might be a risk of strong to severe storms across all of the panhandle in association with the front (however), and though shear overhead will be strong over all of Central Florida instability looks to be meager to non-existent and mostly due to speed rather than directional shear, which would normally equate to 'windy rainshowers' in the absence of instability at the lower levels.

MONDAY: Timing is still in question as to exactly when the full -fledged front will complete it's translation down the state. The time frame being anywhere from late Monday to mid-day Tuesday (as it stands now). Going for the most recent GFS release the front will go through on Monday morning but the driest air lags behind a good 12 hours or more. Suspect that model will pull it's act together a bit better in future days and resolve itself to a complete fropa (Frontal Passage) to occur on MONDAY completely. 

Either way, based on the timing of the GFS (other models aside) the first COLD MORNING of Winter 2020-2021 would be NEXT TUESDAY. Lows anywhere in North Central to Central Florida in the lower 40Fs through to near 50F and across the 30Fs over North Florida, and as you might expect, Windy at the same time. 

This will be a 'Shock to the System" type of frontal passage as all first true cold frontal passages tend to be over the state early in the season. We will have just gone through highs in the lower (to even some mid-80Fs) for several days in a row all through the Thanksgiving Weekend  so  a sudden 20-30F degrees temperature drop isn't exactly a yawn to experience.

Even Tuesday afternoon is  showing up to not even reach 60F but rather mid-upper 50Fs. Will this change? My guess is yes. The GFS sometimes (or even frequently) over-blows cold air intrusions beyond day 4 and we are still talking a week away. No matter how you slice it though the model has been consistent for several days that "It's Coming!" (in some form or another). And from the looks of it this first front may not by any means be the end of it, but rather only the HERALD of things to come a few days later (as if once was not enough).

For now, and chances are THIS PART ESPECIALLY WILL CHANGE, the model indicates a rapid recovery going into Wednesday-Thursday with yet another system approaching and perhaps again a risk of severe weather mainly due to wind shear (which again might not amount to much other than 'windy rain showers". 

It's the next reinforcing 'blast' that will fully assert if there was any question about it that indeed winter is on the door step --  for by Thursday into Friday and for SEVERAL DAYS beyond we will be seeing temperature below to much below 'normal' with another frontal passage. 

So the gist of this post without going into details was for a 'heads up'...we have MUCH to be THANKFUL FOR this year (and always)...Grace came and comes at a Very High Price for us -- with every breath even - but that doesn't preclude that weather comes too with it's own form of Highs and Lows. 

Unfortunately, tis the season for uncomfortable lows rather than unpleasant Highs (of summer).

BETA Version of ETAs Possible Impacts - Mainly Late Tonight - Monday

 

High Speed Dirt's 'Forecast' Tornado Risk Areas

for Tonight - Monday

TODAY: Little change from yesterday's post - ETA is emerging off the North Central Cuban Coast late this morning. Weakening occurred over the mountainous terrain but strengthening and organization even further highly expected throughout the day and into this evening, early Monday.

RAIN CHANCES: Given the weakening of system and latest data showing a sharp demarcation line of very moist atmosphere to not nearly as much (nor as deep) expect that most rain today at least in any true measurable amounts will remain over mainly South and far South Central Florida. There could be a few quick sprinkles further north, but for the most part today looks to be a 'status quo with what you got now as of late morning' situation until ETA gets reorganized AND begins to expand its wind field which is still anticipated going into mid-evening tonight through mid-morning Monday.

Expecting the rain chances to almost 'suddenly emerge' into South Central but more specifically from near Ft Pierce northward to North Brevard County after 2-3 AM tonight, with a more discrete/heavier rainstorm/squall quality/nature to it rather than as a predominant rain shield as is currently at play. 

This change in nature (if of course it occurs) would be due to a nocturnal wind max in the mid-levels combined with the storm's expanding wind field in the 2000-7000 ft. level above ground adding to helicity and shear as this occurs. 

Discrete cells thus will be more likely mid evening tonight (South Florida and moreso  toward the wee-hours post-midnight tonight -- especially where the 5000 ft level winds expand/radiate outward from at least Ft Pierce if not further north than that. Thus, for folks north of Ft Pierce the more likely time for this storm activity we've all been hearing about emerges well after midnight but prior to sunrise, Monday.

It is possible storms will acquire rotation coming in off the warm  Atlantic water mainly from the Brevard /Volusia County line southward toward Ft Pierce during the course of events. Further south toward West Palm and south  the same can be said to occur (more likely) after sunset tonight through midnight.

PLEASE NOTE: This is only a blog post - and not official. Hence, below is the 'Official Forecast" from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) for 'today's' tornado risk area. Also note, the SPC has NO TORNADO RISK (as of now) for any other areas other than what is shown below. They show NO RISK for Monday over Central Florida. In fact, for Monday they only show a small area across far Southwest Florida - that is a big difference worth nothing from what this blog post is reading.

  

This image above shows SPC's Forecast for TODAY (in green) for 'Tornado Probability'

The HSD Forecast is that this area will begin to validate AFTER 8pm tonight or thereabouts,

mainly for far SOUTHWEST Florida then spread out as we approach midnight and thereafter.

The 'RED AREA" shown is the HSD Forecast as a result for late tonight going into MONDAY

with the area from Ft. Pierce and north more likely after 3AM and into Brevard by 5AM and thereafter into the afternoon.

The only change from yesterday's post was to remove areas further north than Southern Volusia County from the 'Risk Area"

Otherwise, strongest wind gusts/wind in general will likely be restricted to  near or over discrete rain cells/squalls. Outside the 'storms' winds will more than likely remain in the 15-30mph range including where the rain takes on a more 'shielded region' form rather than smaller discrete rain storms.

Strongest winds right along the coast will increase for South Central to Central LATE today (more notably) into early evening and remain steady and even increase more steady state going into after midnight coincident with the increased tornado risk. Again, all due to the expanding wind fields as the storm starts to interact with the Florida Peninsula's land mass.

WHEN WILL IT ALL BE OVER? It appears the 'worst of it all' will be on Monday. Thereafter the pressure gradient between ETA and high pressure to the north is to decrease even as ETA weakens (at least temporarily). Going into Monday the bulk of the storm should be over the Southeast Gulf, perhaps infringing upon the far Southwest Florida Coast.  There is still a lot to be said for the 'future cast' of ETAs  - so this post will avoid going into details that won't verify anyway.

Point being, as far as all of Central Florida is concerned , after Monday the wind overall will be much weaker than will be experienced today into Monday -and rain chances will also decrease (but not entirely). Rain could remain in the forecast into Tuesday, and perhaps we'll have to watch for a small tornado risk at least early Tuesday for some area yet to be revealed. Much depends on the storms future which varies in models anywhere from it becoming a hurricane to nothing more than a weak tropical depression...and where it goes is another 'Big If'...will it cross the state? If so, it could go anywhere from Central Florida to the panhandle, or simply remain over the Gulf and weaken.

Otherwise, temperatures to remain at to slightly above normal (especially overnight) through all of next week and rain chances decrease.

Will The "Elusive Tropical Anomaly" (ETA) be a SWAK Threat ( or "Where's The Rain-X?) !"

 

Developing ETA South Of Cuba Saturday Afternoon , November 7 2020

 

By now all are well aware that a 'Tropical Threat" is encroaching upon Florida later this weekend into early next week. For all official forecasts please refer to the National Hurricane Center   for latest information regard ETA and/or the local National Weather Forecast Office for your location.

To eliminate repetition of what all the forecast offices will be putting out and already are, this post will be relatively brief but also mention a few points that might not yet have made mainstream or unofficial outlets   

For "EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA" (specifically),  based on current timing of multiple model output consensus in general, the heaviest weather overall and onset  of it will begin over The Keys and Far South Florida  then progressively work north with time going into late Sunday - Over Night Sunday Night - and into Monday (most specifically for North Central and Parts of North Florida as far north possibly as even the JAX area on Monday and/or even Tuesday.

The Blog Post will make one observation (though not-official) and that is as you watch forecasts on 'TV" or other sources, realize that the 'worst of the weather' at times will NOT necessarily be near the central circulation (or whatever one might call an 'eye' ). 

IN fact, there is data output which indicates that the stormiest points at certain times might be well more than 200NM from the Center. For example, when/if  'ETA" were to be centered just west of Ft Myers (as an example) the worst of the weather could be occurring along the Coast of Brevard County, which brings up another point. All in all, the strongest surface wind associated with ETA appears will occur at the immediate coast from near Vero Beach and south, with gusts up to and exceeding 55MPH possible, with the secondary area of 'not quite as strong at times' extending as far north as near the Volusia/Brevard County line. So far, Brevard County is being 'pegged' in more than one instance as a 'potential' for gusts will above 55mph due to the wind that would develop at the 2000-5000 ft level above ground come post Midnight Sunday night into the first half of Monday as the storm's girth increases, especially after sunrise Monday.

Likewise, the largest storm rainfall totals from beginning to end of this event will be near to 50 NM of the east coast in about the same areas. That is not to say there could be isolated 'events/locations' further north or west as well.

Overall, based on current trends - ETA will be making it's greatest impacts all day SUNDAY (far South Florida) and then working northward overnight Sunday night into Monday. The most volatile (and unfortunately most dangerous time) based on current model out put will be from near 9PM Sunday night through to near Sunrise Monday morning from Far South Brevard county to near West Palm Beach.  Areas further north in Brevard would also see some 'active' weather in isolated storm cells PRIOR to SUNRISE Monday; however,  the bulk of the greatest impacts north of Sebastian Inlet would be during daylight hours Monday...of course, there is a 'timing issue' and has the chance of being 'highly variable' and changing over the course of the next 18-30 hours. Therefore, the 'timing indicated' in this post is for 'example' only.

 

    ETA will be the 29th  'Recognized' Storm System'  ever to occur in the month of November within 300 NM of Cocoa Beach, Florida.  

Also note that it will be the FIRST OF THESE STORMS to take a track that crossed Cuba then takes a LEFT TURN. As can be seen in the image below, all previously known tracks show storms lifting north and curving to the right

In regard to ETA and Central/North Florida - the heaviest weather from ETA appears will occur when the Storms Central Circulation (per latest official forecast track) is over or near the keys to  approximately 120 NM  west or northwest of Ft Myers , that's assuming the storm takes the forecast track.

Pay not too close attention the storms CENTER ! ..higher winds at lower levels of the atmosphere from 2000-5000 feet above ground could be just asstrong , if not stronger well away from the Center  , especially Sunday night going into Monday (assuming the forecast track holds). These winds could work to the surface in areas of rain bands resulting in SQUALL GUSTS of 70mph + (this is 'worst case scenario' type stuff)  I expect there will be large differences between the sustained winds vs. GUSTS during the time of heavier rain squalls or storms, especially on MONDAY.

This brings up the other "ISSUE" from the Blogger's Standpoint. 

That being The High Speed Dirt concern - or, in this case more like  Speeding Water of Another Kind (SWAK)

TORNADO RISK

All available data from the 4KM NAM, HRRR and GEFS shows that there will be a TORNADO risk and at times a possibly significant one from low topped tornadic supercell structures within or even apart from incoming squalls. Isolated , rotating storms appear will be most likely from the Keys along the east coast to about 50 miles inland especially OVERNIGHT Sunday night along eastern portions of South and South Central.  This risk could extend (based on current timing) as far north as Southern/Central Brevard County. But again realize, TIMING of all things referred to in this post is subject to change, which will mostly likely be the case. 

Bear in mind that The TORNADO RISK  at times could be FAR from the storm's Center 

For example, if ETA were to be 20 Miles west of Ft Myers the biggest tornado threat might be near the Kennedy Space Center (!), that far away, yes. That is due to the fact that as mentioned earlier, there will be sufficient low level bulk -shear and accompanying 'helicity' in the same levels, COUPLED WITH heat from the near shore Atlantic Water providing for some Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). So we'll have 'CAPE" plus 'HELICITY" and BULK SHEAR" ..  all occurring within the lowest levels of the atmosphere.   There could be, thus, LAND FALLING TORNADIC WATERSPOUTS or flat out tornadoes when they develop over land.

Looking above: The Greater Tornado Risk (working from South to North will be along the Florida east coast to up to 20-40 NM inland south of South Brevard PRIOR to sunrise, Monday morning, then from that point on the risk increases esp. after 10AM-11AM MONDAY as 'daylight' hours will provide additionally HEATING and the mid level winds begin to expand around the central circulation.

  

Will such activity actually occur though? Whether it ACTUALLY does or not, it looks rather certain that we will at least by hearing Tornado Warnings being issued (if not many of them) from Miami Northward possibly as far north as The JAX NWS office.

 Time to put THE RAIN-X on your Car and pull in the yard furniture and other outside things and be prepared for POWER OUTAGES in some areas and in some more prone areas (especially South Florida), flooding.

 At this point, 'storm surge' does not appear will be too much an issue THOUGH high tides will be running 'VERY HIGH" and could result in beach erosion, the rivers could also come up higher than normal ...

More to come ..another post will be made TOMORROW ...by then, we can monitor SEVERAL more runs of all available models I have access to - and also Follow THE TREND each model takes. This blog will be watching mainly the TORNADO RISK as the other information is posted FAR AND WIDE over the Media and made available most Readily over the internet from multiple sources, both official and unofficial.

Rare July Pattern in Place Tomorrow through Next Weekend

Small  Sunrise 'Cloud Line' Friday Morning at The Cocoa Beach Pier Produced a Funnel Cloud 

Barely Visible In This Image, A Funnel Emerges to the Right of the Pier

TODAY: The post this morning will speak in  'broad and general' ways as upcoming days will vary in slight ways, likely each having  a 'flavor of it's own' but all occurring within a larger scope (the synoptic scale overall pattern). 

Briefly though, a good coverage of showers and storms today, with some able to go up along both sea breezes east and west coast earlier in the day. Best convergence appears will be somewhere favoring the Eastern Interior portion of the state with outflow activity possibly working back over the beaches at some 'favored area' by late afternoon or early evening. So far that 'potential' might exist for either Brevard and/or Volusia county. Some one might see upward  of 2" of rain just today over the interior .

To point back to the Blog Title, a rare set up is for all purposes to be in-development today through Sunday. Upper level energy which yesterday was over West Central Missouri is dropping southeast toward Florida and combining with 'energy' (vorticity) from other sources to result in a broad, mid-level   cyclonic circulatory pattern over the Deep Southeast (that being, 'counter-clockwise) with Florida being at the Six- O'Clock position of lower to mid level winds flowing in a backward or 'counter-clockwise' way. 

That means SW winds surface through mid levels. This circulation will be fueled by energy in combination with the diurnal sea breeze circulations in the midst of rather unusually Deep Atmospheric moisture characterized by precipitable water (PWAT) values on a consistent basis for a string of days between 1.85 - 2.40" at times. This compares to winter values which run around 1/2 inch (as a point of reference). 

It's not that such values are overly  extreme (for Florida) but that it's the duration for how long this will last, combined with the fact we will have 'energy' aloft which can work with that moisture. 

The situation this time of year is that often there is plenty of moisture but no energy to work with it. Not so this time.

 The other and most 'rare' aspect to this particular upcoming situation (synoptic scale pattern) is the length of consecutive days we will be at that 'six-o'clock position' and/or south of the Atlantic Ridge Axis each of which results in Southwest Flow aloft either way.  The winds aloft dictate to a large degree the overall direction of storm motion.

 The 'unusual' aspect  is that usually there is almost no steering at all or more often from the east to west to favor the west coast this time of year, not deep southwest flow aloft for a solid week (at least, if not for 10 days).

But not so tomorrow through to potentially next weekend. Additionally, it does not appear that for at least a large portion of the time these winds will be strong enough to offset/counterbalance the daily sea breeze circulations, other than to bring the west coast sea breeze across to the east coast on some days faster than others and leave the east coast sea breeze very close to the east coast.

Net effect is plenty of opportunities for rainfall, at almost any time, but mainly for late morning through mid-evening, but varying in how and why that will be so on a daily basis.

It does look like there could be several 'early onset days' ahead, with activity already off the west or even the east coast prior to even sunrise  with  the west coast activity spreading ashore and then working eastward from early morning to early afternoon. 

Some days might see the main 'storm show' by noon time   leaving cloudy skies in their wake, and maybe even re-development prior to nightfall . 

Storm motion will not be particularity fast either, so with all these days ahead of rainfall (not everywhere all the time) but with these 'chances' so many days, there is a risk of 'flooding' in those urban areas most prone to it.

The biggest risk sum total will be as always, lightning. 

With  also lighter winds aloft and deeper moisture, we might start hearing of funnel clouds or waterspouts as well prior to mid-next week when winds might get a bit stronger in the mid levels.

That's about all there is to say in those regards other than to mention the TROPICS. 

The media outlets and some 'unofficial sources' are starting to extend their prophetically inclined high-amp anxiety riddled speculations into the mix, and it's all a waste of time at this point.

 There is no agreement that such a threat exists , and if so, the region that might be affected at this point would not be in danger of anything other than more rain (at this point). 

There is no model as of this morning showing much of anything other than a weak depression coming ashore the Northern Gulf Coast  states. That is not to say , however, that that 'will be' the case or that there 'will be' any thing at all (!).

 BUT, there could be..and so what's new? That sources want to draw attention to themselves for financial reasons or to be 'the one to be able to say, "See I told you so".

  Just a word  not to latch on to such speculations for whatever reason only to have them vanish within 24 hours anyway. If on the east coast of Florida, no impacts in those regards until further notice.

The other impact for Florida and most disastrous? Lack of Sunny Skies and good beach time!

Chance of Lightning Storms Mainly Portions of East Central

Thunderstorm Moves East Across  the Banana River, Merritt Island Yesterday (June 30)

TODAY: Different day  from yesterday  ... in location of the best available moisture for storms, 'the direction of storm motion, and 'potential storm strength'.

Wind aloft in all steering levels has become northwesterly, whereas surface winds remain light. Looks like the pressure gradient up through 2000 feet will remain light enough for the diurnal sea breeze circulations to set up, but be a bit delayed in some locations on the east coast  and not make it too far inland from that coast as well. 

On the other-hand, the west coast sea breeze boundary will have no problem with being established and making its eastward journey once day time heating gets firmly established and the land mass starts to heat up. Today, that should happen fairly evenly in the absence of significant cloud coverage anywhere.

Best moisture is showing up to be across mainly peninsular North and North Central Florida earlier in the day to continue to work east and south during the day mainly down the eastern half of the state.

Activity could go up along either sea breeze boundary but be less than 'spectacular' earlier in the day.  With that said, showers and some storms could arise toward the spine of the state earlier in the afternoon as the west coast boundary moves east and south (from the NW)..apparent motion might be east at times along the boundary itself until later in the day when storms reach higher heights and fully latch on to the prevailing NWesterlies aloft.

The largest amassing of showers/storms/cloud coverage looks like it might be mainly near SR 50 and south near I-95 to US1 from Titusville south to Fort Pierce, with the Fort Pierce and south areas getting their greatest influx latest as outflows from activity further north are accelerated southward. How far south storms might be able to manifest is in question, however. For example, will West Palm get in on it, or Ft Lauder dale (going toward dark). Hard to say.

Temperatures aloft today are not all that cold but convergence of boundaries along  a somewhat potentially opposing sea breeze(from the east south east) with outflows from the north (esp. late if it starts to become more southerly as often occurs with time) might result in some 'good poppers'.

 Net effect, some stronger storms might be able to manifest from Merritt Island south toward Indian River or even St. Lucie County just inland from the immediate coast.

TUESDAY: Same overall scheme of things but with more moisture availability, so we could see even greater coverage. Not sure the winds aloft will have as much as a westerly steering component tomorrow so despite higher coverage, the immediate coasts might 'steer clear' of actual rainfall (but not cloud coverage).

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: Sort of iffy for Wednesday. The latest NAM wants to keep up the moisture content while the GFS was shutting it off. Regardless, we start to lose steering and what does evolve ends up favoring tWEEKEND-NEXT WEEK: A pattern change during Mid-Week next week is being indicated. That would be a pattern that would favor the west coast but rather dry, to a much more moisture laden atmosphere with steering favoring East Side come Saturday as a larger scale upper level trough attempts to deepen down the eastern U.S.
he west side of the state.

 All in all, the period from Late Sunday through next Thursday looks to be rather 'wet', at least on paper. Whether this will end up being 'too much cloud coverage' or actual storms, will be another story for another day.

Pattern Changed Overnight: Risk of Late Storms , Less Cloud Cover

June 30, 2018, Cape Canaveral 

TODAY: Pattern change began late yesterday and will be in full swing by noon time today. That being, surface and steering winds aloft have swung around to more of a southwest through northwest (aloft) component, as opposed to easterly through southerly. So in essence, today is a totally different day from the past two days...

It's too early as of this writing to know what temperatures aloft are doing, though the short range RAP indicates some cooling aloft might occur later in the day toward evening. 

It appears we might see a 'state divided' today, with  the South Half and Panhandle going mainly 'earlier in the period' with the North - East Side of the state going up (with activity) mainly later in the day into the early evening. Appears a weak vorticity slot (upper energy) might rotate across North /North Central early evening.

Net effect between solely sea/lake breeze driven activity over the southern portions of the state, while the east coast north of the area around Vero Beach toward Melbourne Beach might not see much going on other than an isolated shower/storm or two until late afternoon into early evening (maybe even after 8 pm ) .

TUESDAY: Things will continue to change as high pressure begins to take on a greater influence, with steering beginning to shift favoring solely the interior and eventually west side of the state. There will also be 'some' drying, but not enough to suppress  showers/storms completely albeit in the presence of warmer air aloft as well, thus reducing storm strength. High temperatures (mainly west of I95 could reach mid-upper 90Fs for a few days , e.g. 'Sanford')

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: It looks unlikely the East side of the state will see any rain mid-late week with steering favoring the far interior to west side, in a reduced fashion. 4th of July looks dry for folks in the east.

NEXT WEEKEND and BEYOND: This is too far out for accuracy, though currently inclinations and given the time of year, wouldn't hold on to a 'dry forecast' for long. Saturday could be the beginning of an upward trend for storms progressing eastward across the state -- taking hold to that trend through much of 'next' week (not this upcoming one). Time will tell.

Isolated Strong Storms Late over the Interior

Strong Thunderstorm over West Cocoa off SR524, June 24, 2015

TODAY: A little more moisture in place today than yesterday, the missing ingredient from yesterday. Otherwise, not much has changed from previous days in wind and temperature fields surface and aloft  .

That being said , warm again today  with highs in the lower to mid-90Fs many areas, with a sea breeze to develop in the early to mid afternoon as it  zips up the coast from South Florida.

The West Coast sea breeze will also work inland, with both to meet somewhere in the vicinity of straight down the spine of the state in the early evening hours.

Temperatures aloft are 'cool' (but not relatively speaking, 'cold') and Convective instability with a CAPE up to 4000 and Lifted Index possibly down to -11 coupled with moisture convergence along and ahead of the approaching 'fronts' (sea breezes) spells out that the convection oven will be baking a a few pies and cookies today. 

Watch out for the Wedding Cake! (no, no wedding cakes today, the winds aloft are too weak for multi-tiered  rotating updrafts).

Best rain chances in from the immediate coast, though debris clouds might wash back over toward the coast late afternoon into evening with light rain in some locations mainly north of Brevard County.

WEDNESDAY:  A similar type of day but further from the east coast.

THURSDAY-SATURDAY: All these days favor interior toward the west coast.

PATTERN CHANGE begins SUNDAY into MONDAY; Moisture will be available in 'patchy mode' ,  so where the best moisture will be this far out in time is impossible to know, hence cannot spell out any particularly favored regions.

 Winds will have veered more from easterly at the  surface and aloft (from Thursday and Friday) to SSE (Saturday) and eventually S-SW with time by Sunday through Tuesday, which will favor the east coast rather than the west. 

Temperatures aloft might warm up as well , however, which would greatly minimize threats of 'strong storms' but not necessarily lightning presence

'Poof! Just Like That': A Vanishing Rain Chance Act - Means More Heat

June 23rd, 2015 - Prolific Arcus Feat Entombed Cape Canaveral

TODAY: The long and short of it today is - 'Change of Plans'.
 In less than 24 hours the 'heralded rain chance per the GFS for days' suddenly vanished. 

The short range guidance so far is following in line. There is a glimmer of hope for those who want a 'cool down' from now what will otherwise result in being another hot day (warmer than yesterday inland since there will be less cloud cover from yesterday), however.

 Instability will be strong today and lapse rates rather steep both in the lower and mid levels. Now there is all things working for us to produce storms, but one minor problem - lack of overall moisture up through the mid-levels right where the steep lapse rates will be today, as 500mb temperatures might fall nearly to -10C (a good ingredient for strong/severe storms). 

The short term guidance is showing the chances of some 'showers' going up late in the day along the east coast sea breeze, but whether that be 'showers', an 'enhanced batch of clouds', or a 'full blown storm' cannot be known at this stage. Going with persistence , will go with 'clouds'. If we see showers some lucky few will see them in from the coast. If per chance a full blown storm goes up, look out! If any do, they (or it) will be very isolated.

Temperature wise, another warm one today but for the coast where the east coast sea breeze will lower the 'what would be otherwise' temperature by a good 10F. 

Mid-afternoon temperatures yesterday for example right near the coast under the cloud cover were around 84F, but with full sun today even that will be warmer today. Away from the sea breeze, different story with dangerous heat indices, and highs in the mid-90Fs possibly even higher.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Again, these days are now coming in drier (and warmer) as a result. The heat continues 

WEDNESDAY-BEYOND: Details sketchy, but in general appears to approach a more typical 'summer like regime'. Sea breeze convergence over the interior. Folks at the coast remain dry other than possibly along Southeast Florida area (mainly south of Ft Pierce) whereLake - Sea Breeze induced activity might be able to get under way. Steering aloft will be close to nothing so would not expect to see a good 'push back' to the coast (either West or East Coast).

THE Next pattern change is showing up (for now) to begin next weekend, with a more definite push of activity toward and off the east coast. At least for now that is how it looks.

TROPICS: No hints of any tropical threats and wouldn't expect to see any now until we reach August. June ended up being a 'tropical dud' with only one 'questionably' named 'system'.

Strong Storms Possible Sunday Eastern Portions of North Central

Storm Clouds Over Cape Canaveral - June 22, 2018

TODAY: Another hot day in store, with highs a few degrees above 'normal'. No record highs expected nor have any been set across the state, though many official reporting stations have come to a degree or two of tying a record high the past two days. Granted, 'record highs' this time of year aren't all 'that' much higher than the normal as it is. But 4-6 degrees coupled with Heat Indices (the real story) is nothing to mess with for health related issues , the elderly, and the young alike.

There is an area of higher clouds over the Central/ Eastern Gulf that is attempting to spread eastward early this morning; whether they will wash over the state or not could make all the difference come the 2-5 pm time frame temperature wise. 

If they do wash over, highs might be held at bay - but in general will probably not make much of a difference either way. 

The East Coast might experience a 'sea breeze' today which would make a huge difference to those mainly along or only east of US1  - though looks like from Brevard northward it will be a delayed one (sometime around 3pm or later).

SUNDAY: The GFS has advertised for several days, and just overnight the NAM has come in line,    the risk of thunderstorms mainly along the East Coast from The FL/GA border southward into Volusia county. 

The 4KM NAM has a 'small cluster' of storms making a NNW to SSE trek, but takes it off the southeast Georgia Coast into the Atlantic Ocean rather than down the coast. For now, will discount that solution.

With cold air aloft and moderately high Convective Available instability, coupled with what will be strong low level lapse rates, would watch for 'strong/potential briefly severe' storm or two from near Jax toward Daytona Beach. 

How far south this activity proceeds southward (assuming it even exists) is in question. The area from Cape Canaveral toward Melbourne beach might see cloud cover move in only, or perhaps very light rain (or maybe a bit more) very late in the afternoon into early evening; it's just not possible to know. 

The greater risk will be from Central Volusia northward.

MONDAY: High pressure that has been position too far close overhead (thus, our high temperatures and suppressed atmosphere) will have made it's fullest 'westward retreat' away from the state. This day might be similar to Sunday but with greater coverage though in the same general area as Sunday. 

Will need to re-evaluate Monday during the next two days though, but there is a chance of some stronger storms also only they will be able to manifest further west into the state rather than only along the East Coast and a bit further south as well from however Sunday pans out. 

The GFS is showing a 'cold pool' of surface temperatures late in the day over all of East Central Florida indicating some 'good rains' have fallen; that being from South of I4 to north of Sebastian inlet, including eastern portions of the adjacent interior counties.

TUESDAY: High pressure retreats further west but also north and expands. IF that is the case, we will enter a easterly flow regime favoring the Interior and West coast for storm activity, leaving the east coast 'high and dry'. 

By Monday/Tuesday the unusually warm temperatures will be  over with.

All in all, come Tuesday and beyond indicates a more typical summer type of pattern (of which there are several). 

Earlier indications were that we'd be in for 'all storms in the interior where the sea breezes meet' but that indication went away over night. Perhaps it's too early to make any kind of concrete assertion  in regard to Tuesday and beyond.

 If we do see an onset of more easterly flow, there might also be a day or two here or there when significantly drier air is imported across the state, greatly reducing rain chances more everywhere regardless of where the sea breezes meet, meaning lower rain chances.

In Summary, very warm with dangerous heat indices two more days, chance of storms (some strong) close to the Northeast Quadrant of the state Sunday and Monday, and from Tuesday on..normal temperatures and rain chances (varying in location depending on the synoptic (large scale) set up at hand.

Potential Exists for 'Stronger' Storms Today

Storm Encroaching on Cape Canaveral - June 18, 2019

TODAY:  Although most atmospheric parameters are similar to yesterday after a slow start, the overall 'synoptic scale set up for the state' is quite a bit different. 

Hence, storm activity will be getting going and prolong for a repertoire for different reasons from yesterday.

The Convective Temperature near noon per the KSC Sounding over East Central is up to 91F, which means 'late start' or that nothing will likely 'initiate in that area' given the current temperatures. The NAM and to some degree GFS model are analyzing a "mid level vort lobe' (atmosphere 'energy' / vorticity)  to cross Central Florida later this afternoon. If so, this could contribute to storm strength and/or coverage. 

Additionally, the pressure gradient in the vertically aloft is a bit tighter resulting in slightly stronger winds aloft.  Precipitable water values are running about the same, but a bit lower on the KSC sounding from what it was earlier this morning, down to 1.92" from 2.02' due to a slight drying aloft. 

With faster forward motion of storms today combined with perhaps that region of drier air (East Central) at least as far as the area around The Kennedy Space Center goes there is a risk that a storm or two could exhibit wind gusts at 50 mph + '.

Storms Impacting the Florida East Central Coast on Tuesday

South Central Florida is the fly in the ointment region since there was activity down that way earlier today and cloud cover still exists which would have stabilized the region. An outflow boundary was visible moving southward into Dade County setting off more activity -- but it appears that the area is recovering okay as of noon time and as such might still be able to 'wake back up again'...to produce storms later today as well.

Additionally, instead of activity going up along the West Coast Sea Breeze only, there is already convection going across North Florida (north of I4) instead. This area will likely result in an outflow boundary pressing southward coincidentally  the west coast sea breeze as it also pushes toward the east side of the state.

Arrows pointing to 'key areas ' today to watch for

Net result is that IF all those factors come together, strong storms would be possible. 

At time, the most likely area that seems this might be the case is Eastern Orange/Seminole/South Half Volusia, North Half Osceola, and Most of Brevard County -- that is to say, 'somewhere' in that area.

Other stronger storms could form further north as it is mostly north of Brevard that those stronger winds (albeit not by much ) exist aloft to Eastern Volusia/Flagler/Jax area.

As usual, the greater threat will be  lightning ..especially that which either precedes or follows the main rain activity or that comes out near storms prior to rainfall in any given area. 

THURSDAY- SATURDAY: Much lower rain chance all three days. Really, almost non-existent for the most part but for some very isolated area or two. The area most likely to see rainfall will be North Florida / Panhandle region. There is a small (very small) chance of a shower or storm toward the East Coast Late in the day (mainly) any of these days, north of the 528 Cswy up toward JAX and far South Florida. Mostly likely though, we won't be seeing much going on weather wise other than warm temperatures but for North Florida.

SUNDAY-MONDAY: Strong Storms possible Sunday mainly north of Highway 60 (Ft Pierce area). Monday might also hold that risk. Too soon to say.