Summer Begins Today with Storms To Follow by Friday

 

 

TODAY June 21: Summer Solstice was at 5:13AM EDT , so we are now officially in SUMMER 2022!

As for the weather across  'The Sunshine State' it will mostly live up to the misnomer today, Wednesday and Thursday (though North Florida could see some activity), of being a 'sunshine state' that is. On the other hand the saying will be true, not much of a chance of rain anywhere across much of the state except toward  South Florida.

In general, the current pattern we've been in is going to break down as the Summer Heat Ridge over much of the country east of the Rocky Mountains will begin to weaken and retrograde further west. This does not look good for much of the already Drought Stricken parts of the country though .  For those of us further East, especially the Southeast states, the retrograde will be a 'good thing' if you need the rain (which we do).

In general, from Friday well on into the Weekend and all of next week we will see a  broadly disorganized region of "Low Pressure" centered around the Florida/Georgia Border which will increase rain/storm chances in a wide variety of ways depending on what else is going on each day with wind fields, instability, and general atmospheric moisture availability. 

I will leave this post short just to get us started since each day will be different in it's own way once this pattern change  comes up then begins to evolve , taking on different characteristics about every other day for a good 10 days it now appears.

 What that all means is, 'summer weather in Florida the way you'd expect it to be (more or less).

To get us started (however) it does also appear at some point that an inverted coastal trough (roughly tracing the Gulf Stream offshore) could be in play some of the overnight to early morning period which will act as a region of convergence for ocean showers/storms to form over night. This activity would mainly remain 'off shore' but some of it could come ashore. That means, beginning around Saturday for the next week to follow there might be some storms/showers offshore overnight that 'might' come ashore, especially South Central to South Florida.

But for starters, the outlook for FRIDAY looks like NE Florida could be at risk for storms (some strong) in the region shown below in "Red". North to Central Brevard 'might' also see rain chances on Thursday very late, perhaps after midnight, but that risk is rather 'iffy' as it stands now

The area in 'GOLD" is the area we are most likely to see storms beginning mid-afternoon to well into the evening on SATURDAY. Sunday will be similar but perhaps with even greater coverage state wide.

Strong Storms possible from near the North Shores of Lake Okeechobee northward, Saturday.

Again, on Friday the risk of storms appears will be limited to mainly the area from Indian River County northward but the risk expands on Saturday and then many days to follow.

Storm motion will be slow and in some cases dictated by outflow boundaries and "Lake/Sea Breezes"

In other words, SUMMER ...but SUMMER with PUNCH.

It's Been A While Since a Blog Post but See "BRUNO SANFILIPPO - Doll"

Fallen Dewpoints Right on Schedule - But Tropics Might Heat Up !

TODAY: First frontal boundary of the Fall Calendar Season (which began only but yesterday) is in full swing even this morning with northerly winds and lows in the mid-upper 50Fs this morning in the western Florida Panhandle Region with those northerly winds having worked into Central Florida. The air mass, particularly south of I-4 won't be 'greatly' affected during this first 'full frontal assault' though. The main impacts once the boundary clears Central Florida (which will not be fully under Sunday) will be lower Dew point Temperatures. You might recall earlier this year a post proclaiming the onset of 'Summer' in which it was suggested the 'summer is truly here when the dew points never fall below 70F. Such has been the case the past couple of months (may it be known) but come Sunday into Monday for the first half of next week the forecast calls for falling dew point temperatures and a slight cooling otherwise as well. The main impact being it won't be as humid and 'heat indices' likewise will be lower. Highs will be mainly in the mid-upper 80Fs inland and lower to mid-80Fs along the coast especially as we get toward Monday - Wednesday of next week with dew points in the mid-lower 60Fs. The weekend itself appears will be all but dry with dew points in the mid-upper 60Fs to near 70F right at the beach itself. Otherwise, the only contender for rain chances north of a Melbourne to Tampa line and south of I4 will be today and perhaps on Friday. But come Saturday onward and especially Sunday through Tuesday there is about a zero chance of rain. Lows in the mornings won't be but a few degrees cooler but it will be noticeably drier giving a cooler 'feels like'. With these things said, the next subject at hand and probably hasty with it, is to watch the tropics or other odd 'anomalies' to occur in the upcoming 3-4 weeks. The time period of mainly ' from the last week of September through to the first week of November is notorious for atypical weather events such as 'no name storms', 'strong nor-easter' type weather', small scale heavy rain/large rainfall total events and last but not least - tropical systems.

 It is the 'Tropical Systems' realm we're investigating (for now) in this write up , and we'll keep it very brief. The GFS in the past two runs now (going out just beyond the unreasonable 10-day forecast time frame but very close to it) has shown two runs in a row  a tropical system to form between the eastern tip of Cuba and/or just east of the Bahamas and then moved westward to the Florida peninsula. At the same time a large and likely Strong Hurricane could be threatening Bermuda. This would all be toward NEXT weekend.

Below is the latter GFS Model run. Here it shows a landfall 'tropical system' centered near

just north of West Palm Beach' to move west across the state, enter the Tampa Region, then curve back eastward to exit the state off Central Brevard County. Does that sound reasonable to you? Not on my end it doesn't. The previous run was even 'spookier'. Tis the season I guess, but as we've noted earlier, we are coming to 'that time of year for anomalies'  .
 

As you can see, this is still well out in time and could easily change.

 The GFS has handled what 'might evolve' as being from latent energy associated with the front's passing through our areas in the next few days as they then nestle down in the frontal grave yard of the Florida Straits. 

But they might not be all dead just yet (!) is the point. It does appear that the GFS is trying to bring one 'back to life' as a cyclonically rotating system to cross Florida.

 The first option the model showed was not one but two (!) systems around the state all embedded within a large low pressure system. 

The latter run closed it up to one more organized system as seen above. 

No matter, could be interesting so just a heads up for now. Maybe by this time tomorrow the whole idea might have been completed abandoned. In the mean time, Fall has made a  very 'Timely' showing  this year , right to the calendar date.

Man Your Life Boats! Large Rainfall Totals Possible The Next 10 Days

 

Purple colors means very high 'precipitable' water values
through the depth of the atmosphere

TODAY: If there were a Noah today, he'd be calling all to Get Onboard and Get with The Program because rains are a-comin' (!) but who would believe His Report? After all, it looks nice enough out there now, and 'I've got better things to do than be concerned about some mamby - pamby report about something I see no evidence of with my bare eyes.'

However, things are 'setting up' in some form and fashion for not only some large rainfall totals (esp. just inland from the east coast toward I95) today, but also tomorrow. And, for that matter, for several days to come for varying reasons. 

This is not a 'sure thing' however, especially the further out in time we go, but  the 'trends' have been that in some form or fashion there will be good rain chances persisting for at least at an intermittent fashion (with a few breaks in the cycles) for the next 6-10 days (at least).

Firstly, moisture advecting in from the west from nearly stationary remnant 'Nicholas' will be combining with a more SW-W (toward the east) steering flow, and that with the east coast sea breeze will result in a moisture convergence most prominent along the east side of the state later in the day along the west coast - east coast sea breeze merger and outflow boundary collisions of earlier shower activities. 

The large rainfall totals will not only be from all the available moisture (precipitable water) but due to the slow forward motions of the storm activity itself. Steering, though toward the east, is rather weak so storms themselves will be in no hurry to pull out once one unloads over a location.

The same situation will occur tomorrow in must of the same areas, with the north half of the state most favored.

Now, as one may realize another tropical system is currently in the process of evolving well east of Florida. This system which will likely be named is not expected to make landfall anywhere along the U.S. East Coast as it lifts northward and eventually curves to the NNE off the Carolinas. However, as it moves out, a trailing low level 'trough axis' - a bit like a cold front - will translate south and westward from it as it merges with a larger continental trough moving off the NE - and Mid-Atlantic States. 

That 'trough axis' will trail back south and west toward/across Florida where the remaining pooling of moisture from Nicholas will again come into play. So now we will have that moisture COUPLED with convergence along this newly formed trough axis from the departing tropical system, which if named, would be 'Odette'.

Between today and tomorrow, we could see rainfall totals between 3-4" in isolated cases (most likely along to just west of I95) but other areas could well see 2" inches plus, with wide spread 1/2 - 1" totals possible. That is only for the next two days from "Nicolas" more or less, alone; now, to consider what occurs when 'Odette' (if so named, but makes no difference one way or the other) is included, which will affect the state for another 2 days or so due to that 'trailing trough axis arching back across Florida', we can double that total. 

But hold on, as the GFS is showing a potentially potent tropical wave to be approaching from the east by the time these first two scenarios have been exasperated, which would only then prove to be another 'nail in the coffin' of moisture laden atmospheric mayhem.

'Sum Total" for Today through the middle of next week (at least) is to expect rainfall (not all day long, mostly in the late mornings through mid-evening) today through Tuesday. THEN, when the pattern changes but we still have moisture all about, another pattern of nocturnal and early day rains might set up for the east coast primarily for several days to come. So far, severe weather is not expected, but dangerous lightning strikes will be at stake as the primary hazard (as well as localized short-term flooding).

This post is considering a 'worst potential outcome' though. Chances are we will end up in the middle-ground realm - but still - rains are on the way to begin later today - for any one location though -such as your own - there is no saying if you will see such high totals or not - one place only 5 miles away from any other location can manage as much as 4 inches more than another location not far away.

Bona fide Florida Summerlike Storm Pattern In Place for the Next Week

 

(All images in this post from the last few days) .. Well,it took a while, but at long last it appears what would be considered something closer to a 'classic summer time weather pattern' is fully in place as of today of which will continue with daily variations (from one day to the next) for what appears to be a good week if not longer.  

That being, heaviest storms resulting from the collision of the west with the east coast sea breeze boundaries accompanied by lake breeze boundaries, and late in the day the addition of outflow boundaries from showers or storms that have formed and collapsed earlier on in the day.

Temperatures aloft at 500mb (about 20,000 ft up) are an unimpressive -5C (though we have seen even warmer that that - 'the colder aloft' it is, the stronger storms can be; if we see something like -8 to -10C, "look out!", but -5C is average.). The current reading out of the KSC Sounding this morning is middle of the road at -5C , and winds aloft are light, so 'severe' storms are not anticipated though it is possible for a stronger storm or two to pulse up where several boundaries meet late in the day (after 6PM mostly) somewhere over the interior mainly. 

Outside of any fluke meso-scale (small scale) "Accidents" , we should be seeing what would be considered 'typical' summer thunderstorms -- with the primary hazard being lightning. With such slow steering there could be some areas over the interior that will have to reckon with flooding issues (possibly) in the areas most prone to it -- those areas where activity just so happens to congregate en-masse the most frequently. Especially if it happens they do so over or near the same areas over several days.

Atmospheric moisture availability is not in question now, nor will be for quite a while. At least as it appears now per model guidance.

When is a 'more significant change' to come, and what will it be?

So far, there is a signal that a trough to form along the U.S. East Half (East of the Mississippi) might dig a bit southward more later in the week to eventually almost cut off to a mid-level low over the Southeast U.S. In doing so (or 'if so'), with Florida on the south side of that low which rotates counter-clockwise,  the state would then be under a slightly stronger W-SW flow aloft. The being the case the storm-steering would be far more certain to push inland storm activity eastward to clearing completely the east coast to offshore.

But for today and the next several days, the immediate beaches (East of US 1 for example) will be (or might be) pressed to see a fully formed and mature storm pass over head, as opposed to areas further inland where the sea breezes and lake breeze boundaries intersect and hence enhance upward lifting.

If the 'supposed' mid-level low does end up materializing by the weekend to beginning of next week, the west coast sea breeze will come across the state much more quickly and meet the east coast sea breeze (if there is one at all) must closer to I95 if not east of it. That is still out of accuracy range at this point though, but regardless, the consistency now for a few model runs indicates that no matter how one slices it we'll have the moisture and instability to keep things rolling in Classic Florida Summer Fashion now for a good 10 days.

"Heavy - Strong Storms' Possible Again Today

 

A Strong Storm Encroaches in on US1 and SR528 In Cocoa Late Monday Afternoon

TODAY: Similar set up to yesterday with little change in the overall synoptic (larger scale) pattern. At the lower levels not much else has changed either, other than the day looks like it will start out not 'quite as cloudy' as it was Monday (given, it is still dark out at the time of writing) based on Infrared Satellite Imagery. Given what occurred yesterday (and continuity) the atmosphere should sufficient de-stabilize with sufficient moisture already now in place to set the stage for another round of heavy storms with gusty winds in the stronger storms - with occasional to frequent lightning at times (perhaps small hail in the strongest cores).

A mid-level trough just to the west of the state combined with a ridge across Far South Florida results in W-SW steering across Central/North Florida. At the immediate surface the wind is forecast to be from due south though a bit more of an easterly component is possible along the immediate coast from US1 and east. All this means that storm motion outside of the effects of outflow boundaries translates to storms moving in from the SSW-W depending on the situation.

The only 'issue' is in regard to timing, with the RAP consistently inferring activity will be 'hitting the coastal regions' between 2-3pm this afternoon, whereas even the RAP derived HRRR does not show this to be the case, nor does the 4KM NAM or the GFS, but rather those models point to the 4-6pm time frame, then lasting (and weakening) as it gets dark going to the mid-evening hours. Will side with continuity, and hence speak 'late afternoon' for the better 'time-frame' for activity. Temperatures aloft are still 'cool' without much to speak of over-head wind-wise - but 25-35kt wind aloft translates to surface gusts in the 40-60mph range related to the strongest of storms . Storm motions might be a bit slower today, so other than wind the bigger 'hazard' would be localized flooding in the prone areas that have already received a healthy dose in the past week.

WEDNESDAY: One more day of the current patter, with again storms favoring the region north of Lake Okeechobee to I4 for greatest coverage , including the immediate east coast. Again, the favored area appears to be near I4 south toward Osceola /Brevard Counties for mid-late afternoon storms to move even more slowly toward the east. 

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: Pattern change. Though steering decreases even more, moisture remains across much of the state. South Florida more likely to get in on the 'action' by this time frame...and timing of rainfall, especially near the East Coast could get tricky. There are 'hints' that come Friday morning (for example ) some areas along the east coast could see showers/storms just offshore that might migrate onto the coast early to mid-morning time frame so will just have to be watching for these subtle changes in upcoming days.

WEEKEND: GFS consistent infers a drying out phase across the state as the high pressure surface ridge lifts north and deeper easterly flow ensures eliminating any chance of sea breeze convergence but for perhaps along the immediate west coast and across the Panhandle region. Beyond the Tuesday time frame there is not enough agreement between models to bother going into - though worth noting the last GFS the came out showed yet another tropical system lifting north toward the northern Gulf Coast region.

Pattern Change Commences! Risk of a Strong Storm Today/Saturday

 

Early Morning Thunderstorm Offshore Canaveral (June 1, 2017) 

TODAY: A long awaited (and monitored) pattern change began yesterday subtly and coming into more full swing today and through the weekend. A strong 'heat ridge' building over the Desert Southwest up into the SW Rockies will continue to build northward and in response a  deepening Trough Aloft will ensue all along the U.S. East coast with Florida near the base of this upper-mid level troughing action.

In response, the high pressure ridge axis that had been 'north' of Florida providing for the on-going onshore (easterly) flow has been shunted southward to south of Central Florida this morning with morning Southwest -West winds now in place (for a change from the easterly winds that had been in place).

This overall scheme will remain in place through the weekend and well into next week. That being  -- the ridge axis at the low levels situated/positioned well south of Central to even South Florida leaving the state in southwest to westerly flow as well as 'storm steering' flow from the 'west' (in general), so any activity that can form over the state will press from west to east during the course of the day. The question will be, 'is there enough moisture to generate storms and if so where will that moisture be?".

TODAY: Though  there 'could' be strong storms today along the east coast, it appears the potential will be limited to a rather small area(if so) where Upward Vertical Velocities (VVs) will be maximized along the predominating westerly flow as it meets an East Coast Sea breeze that is not expected to make a whole lot of leeway inland (not much beyond I-95 or so, today. 

Temperatures aloft today are 'cool' but not overly cold nor is there upper level shear (either directional or speed shear). 

Hence, any 'strong storms' today will be relying on nearly  and exclusively 'Upward Forcing" at the lower to mid-levels in accompaniment with surface based 'Instability' and any low level 'helicity' / localized spiraling actions providing additional upward forcing. 

Over the course of the past 24 hours the 4KM NAM model and now the shorter term RAP model runs are showing localized vorticity and helicity actions up and down the Florida East Coast, especially from near Indian River county northward toward JAX Beach in Northeast Florida once the sea breeze attempts to move in -- in accompaniment with peak instability at prime time (mid-late afternoon) to occur along to east of Brevard County toward southern Volusia Countiesin the same areas.

Though a sea breeze should be able to form today, it won't make a 'whole lot' of inland progress. This 'onshore flow' will advect the greater instability just offshore into and across the coast line accompanied by what might amount to a rather 'side-shore type Sea Breeze' beneath an otherwise prevailing southwest flow resulting in strong convergence along the sea breeze front during the mid-late afternoon hours atop moderate surface based instability. 

First showers to develop won't be much - but outflow boundaries from them as they collapse will add to the development of other activity along the prevailing sea breeze front merges resulting in even greater upward forcing along where low level helicity/vorticity has set up at the Sea breeze front itself. 

Storms that go up along the boundary and are forced eastward will meet these other parameters resulting in at least some good 'lightning' activity today - so 'beach goers and boaters beware!'.

Thus, expect the 'greatest hazard today' might well be but frequent lightning (and maybe some small hail ) and strong (sub-severe) wind gusts.

SATURDAY: The same scenario will be setting up but temperatures aloft will start to cool a bit more as the heat ridge over the Desert Southwest continues to build, and hence the trough along the US East Side deepens.

 A frontal boundary will sink down toward Highway 10 and eventually to somewhere between I-10 and I-4 by Monday/Tuesday providing for even greater moisture and more widespread activity. In any case, Saturday is showing by the NAM to have even stronger storms than today in roughly the same area, but that is yet to be put in 'concrete' and we'll just have to play it on a Day-By-Day basis as situations develop.

SUNDAY and BEYOND: Greater coverage might be expected Sunday-Tuesday with even more strong storms becoming likely to even 'spot/pulse severe' popping up in the headlines for future posts. 

Of course, more specific locations have yet to be, nor can be, determined at this point in time, but suffice it say this pattern change which will last through at least mid-late week next week favoring the interior to east coast for mid-afternoon to early evening storms.  

Also watch for 'early on-set' days ahead, meaning days when storms might form and move into Central/East Florida during the late morning (along the west side of the state) and press eastward - increasing in coverage into the noon to early afternoons time frame. 

Seeing signs now of early-mid morning activities that could commence off the Florida West Coast mainly near to north of Tampa up toward Cedar Key that would form especially along the aforementioned frontal boundary and press eastward along the I4 corridor toward the DAB (Daytona Beach) area first off  ..then spread southward into Central Florida for the mid-late afternoon hours, but again, there is a number of scenarios at hand and possible.

TROPICS: Animation example of activity related to the 

"Central America Gyre' which often produces Tropical Storm Activity into the Gulf of Mexico area in 'June' and again in 'October' time frames.

TROPICS: Deep moisture looms well south of Cuba and across Central America awaiting to be drawn north. Over the course of the past week long range model guidance has continually shown a NAMED STORM system to form in this area of what would be the 'Central America Gyre" but it has all been in the 'long range' time frame and keeps getting pushed out in time - the location too of a named system lifting north has varied from anywhere from the Brownsville, Texas area to as far east as Central Florida and then everywhere else in between. 

Suffice it say however, that should a storm system lift northward even well west of Florida it appears that deeper atmospheric moisture through the upward column could eventually find it's way into Florida. 

Oft times such moisture if TOO MUCH of a 'good thing' offsets storm activity resulting in more of a cloud cover situation rather than heavy storms/rainfall which the 'official forecasts' inevitably will predict. 

Regardless, this pattern change we will be experiencing TODAY and through the weekend and into next week is bringing on a change the state has not seen since early-mid summer last year.

"Let The Wet!" Begin - Like Clockwork Strong Storms Today

 

TODAY: Two days left before Climatological Summer begins, and looks like Peninsular Florida is going to waste no time in 2021 to "Let the Wet' Games Begin in earnest. As mentioned in the previous post the other day, SUNDAY (today) would be the 'main show day' with some storms, 'possibly strong' to occur. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has all of Central/South Florida (mainly interior areas) under a 'marginal risk' of severe category storms - that being, some storms could produce hail of 1" and/or wind gusts equal to or in excess of 58 mph. 

The 'wind threat' is by far the greatest risk today and as for 'Central Florida" the areas where those storms are mostly likely to occur appears will be under low-to-no populated areas of eastern Osceola/Orange/Okeechobee Counties well west of I 95 but that is not to discount any other probabilities especially in Seminole County and or part of interior St. Lucie/Martin Counties.

The main cause will be plenty of lower level moisture, very cold air aloft, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates primarily over Central Portions, meaning a more rapid decrease of temperature with height in the 'mid-levels' of the atmosphere which leads to quicker upward motions (vertical velocities) - those combined with upward forcing during the time of the sea breeze collisions after a full day of heating and destabilized air that is moist and we'll be able to get some big 'lightning' going (too). 

Not all will see rain today however. In fact, some if not most will remain entirely DRY, but we will see increased cloud cover all along the Florida East Coast by late today into the evening if even storm debris cloudiness drifts off to the east. The Storm Steering today is from west to east but it is very slow and not likely able to penetrate the Sea breeze until well after dark. 

There could also be rainstorms or showers after dark near to over and offshore the east coast, especially East Central in the vicinity of the decaying frontal boundary, but this activity would be below 'strong/severe' levels.

It was mentioned previously we'd see an influx of dew point air (more humid) of 70F plus (for the most part for a good 7 days) and that still appears will be the case... but we will also be averaging Precipitable Water values (the over all atmospheric moisture content) of 1.5" or more  on a STEADY basis (compared to 1/2" or less in the winter)...as we can see here, that indeed appears will be the case for days to come (the latest GFS 'says so' at least)  .....  

MONDAY: Chance of showers/thunder persists at almost any hour over night tonight into early morning Monday up through mid-morning near the old frontal boundary (Brevard County beaches area), but after that things clear up and flow becomes more east to west at many levels of the atmosphere. That means the east coast might remain dry after mid-morning through the rest of the day (but not interior and west side).

TUESDAY-FRIDAY: Easterly flow prevails; however, it appears the old boundary might begin to manifest/meld just offshore the east coast along the west edge of the GULF STREAM as an inverted coastal trough.

 If so, that would aid to act as an agent for low level convergence and hence rain and/or thunderstorms to form just off shore if not on or near shore over night into the early morning hours, mainly from the Cape and South. 

We'll have to wait to see on this one, but it looks to be in the cards for now. Otherwise, afternoon storms that can form will be mainly west of I95 and more toward the Florida West Coast.

FRIDAY- BEYOND: Depth of the wind fields becomes much more south to north and looks completely 'SUMMER" ish in all ways- with ample moisture , instability and sea breezes at work. It's too far out in time for now what nature these  storms will take, but some might well be strong as well as would be characteristic of 'JUNE' thunderstorms.

TROPICS: It's worth at least pointing out that the GFS has been trying to bring Deep Tropical Moisture and Lower Pressures toward Florida come the June 8 - June 13 time frame. The Model Run last night showed a VERY active rain/storm pattern coming up (the newer run isn't completed yet). Regardless, earlier runs were also showing 'something' to go on around that time frame so it is worth watching for.

MEANWHILE: The gist for today is, 'some strong storms' today mostly West of I95 after 5pm. Cloud cover and rain and weaker storms might make it back to the coast, most likely after dark (unless one can go up along the East Coast Sea breeze earlier in the day).

"It's Coming!" - True Summer to Arrive "On Schedule"

 

The near 'seemingly drought like' conditions much of the state is in right now is nothing really unusual, as every year there is the 'dry before the rains comes' state of affairs. This year it is most pronounced, though large spread rainfalls that occurred in April have thankfully put the kibosh (to some degree) on the potential that would otherwise be for an outbreak of more widespread brush fires.

For this post, only to highlight that continued dry and warmer than usual (mainly inland) will prevail into Saturday, and with the lower dew points that are experienced in the summer this  'heat' is comparatively a 'dry heat' and does not have that 'feels like much more' to it. 

Heat indices are far from 'soaring' in other words, and this is all due to the lower dew point temperatures. All that is to change  more or less, come Sunday into Monday or there so .

Who's watching the Clock anyway? After all, the first day of 'Official Summer' at least 'Meteorologically' is June 1 (the astronomical start is when the Sun passes over the Tropic of Cancer around June 21), but from a  Meteorological perspective in the northern hemisphere, Summer begins on JUNE 1.

Now, from a Florida perspective (at least the bloggers one) it begins when we have at least 7 continuous days of dew point temperatures at or above 70F which is what leads to the next summer norm - the 'wet season' / or 'summer' begins.

 We have had days in some instances where the sea breezes met, but due to lower dew points and/or length of day time heating the sea breeze collisions would amount to nothing more than a cloud deck for the most part. Now we have longer days and the necessary greater moisture in the lower levels set to move in from the tropics to produce more clouds (cumulus) and thunderstorms during sea and lake breeze mergers (hence, the 'wet season').

The moisture is first forecast to move in more closely associated to a decaying frontal boundary from the north  so that by late Saturday afternoon we might see increased cloud cover during the mid to late day, but it is Sunday as the front gets across Central that we could see a storm or two (possibly strong) 'somewhere over Central Florida'.  

The True Higher Dew points from that day onward though will be ushered northward as well from the south ahead and along this boundary, and be initially prominent along the Florida East Coast MONDAY, MAY 31 morning (after the pretty good chance of rain/storms on Sunday). Inland dewpoints might not quite hit and sustain that magic 70F  -- but it won't be long as we move into the first two weeks of June 2021.

In Fact, the Long Range GFS model shows once the dew point reaches 70F on that Monday morning, it does not once go below that reading from that point onward. Granted, it 's only a forecast model but the trend is on for 'The Wet Season"  (and the True Florida-like Summer weather) to be moving in.

In regard to Tropical Weather, this also means an increasing risk of Tropical Storm development  ...of which any threat at this time of year would be most generally on the "Gulf Side" rather than the Atlantic, at least as far as a 'direct and immediate threat' to a  Florida Coast line as far as storm surge is concerned.

Risk of A Severe Storm by Early - Mid Afternoon

 

Strong Storm Stretches Offshore the Cape
 as viewed from Cape Canaveral (5/5/21)

RECAP: As was expected, there was a marginal risk of a 'severe' category storm yesterday -- there was one such observable storm over the Northern Cape Region of Playalinda Beach on an 'observation tower', albeit those winds were a bit above ground. Regardless - it qualified. Otherwise, no qualifiable severe conditions were observed elsewhere or at least none were reported by anyone. 

TODAY: Today looks to have a bit more going for it to support 'severe CAT' weather over and above yesterday - at least as of mid-morning. 

One big difference today from yesterday  - the mid-upper level temperatures per the RAP short term model are to lower significantly as we enter into early afternoon. 

As such, lower to mid-level lapse rates will increase buoyancy (along with increasing instability) coupling that with where the East Coast Sea Breeze sets up (which will be VERY close to the coast, possibly no further inland than US1) to meet up with the West Coast Sea breeze   -  -- and 'assuming' we get amply prolonged insolation (near unrestricted heating)...the stage could be set for a SUDDEN explosive storm or two very close to the beaches (or just off shore) after the 2-3pm time frame. 

Inhibiting factors, 'especially near to north of I-4, would be greater cloud coverage. Any larger area experiencing prolonged cloud cover might be able to be ruled out for a strong storm today (or any storm for that matter).

Regardless, though there could be a strong storm across the North Half of Volusia, expecting the greater risk (because the potential looks better) to be further south  -- the region I'm seeing as of this hour for having the most potential for a severe category storm (possibly even due to Hail Size) would be from near Sanford - Titusville southward to South Melbourne Beach -- basically anywhere in Brevard (nearly) along and east of US1 and as far inland as Sanford or so. 

Much , however, assumes we even get an east coast sea breeze !

 Otherwise, there is still a risk of strong to severe either way -- due to the colder air aloft coming in nearly perfectly in sync with the peak heating hours of the day. 

The factor that would increase the severe potential even more would be if the west coast sea breeze were to surprisingly just 'take off to the east' by early afternoon and meet the east coast one in perfect timing with the upper level features. 

This does seem to be yet possibly (however (!)) ...so any delay in storm onset (especially south of I4)toward the 4-5PM time frame might mean a greater chance of a quick but severe category storm.

BEYOND: The front will pass down the state tonight and into Central Florida in the pre-dawn hours. It is expected to be entering South Central Florida shortly after sunrise - as such, rain chances go to zero by early or mid morning across that area.  Still warm but much drier, with highs mostly in the mid-upper 80Fs .

SATURDAY: Much cooler Friday night to Saturday morning. This might be our last shot at most of the areas (especially east of I95) of getting below 70F this season - or close to the last chance.

Beaches south of The Cape might still be able to tweak out a 70F reading Saturday morning as winds might just start to gain an on-shore component and now the ocean temperature is up to 80F  ... ! It's really risen the past two week.

MOTHER'S DAY: This day looks right around 'normal' across the boards temperature and rain chances wise. The better chance of any showers at all this day will be across South Florida but the warming trend will be beginning for a much warmer, and a bit wetter week ahead.

LONG RANGE: We might be in for a bit more of an active period coming mid-late week (next week) for several days. The signals are there in the GFS that that will be the case, at least for shower/thunderstorm activity - possibly over-night off shore -- all in all - it's NOT summer yet moisture wise. The Deep Moisture we see from the Tropics is in no way shown to be arriving just yet.

Potential for Strong Storms Today & Tomorrow (East Central)

 

Very Early Morning Rainstorm Moving in on May 5, 2017

TODAY:  As of 'very early' this morning, prior to sunrise, satellite interpretation indicates a large 'outflow boundary' emanating across North Florida pressing southward as a result of heavier rainfall and storm activity that had occurred over parts of Southern Alabama and Georgia yesterday/last night. (see image below)

This boundary will likely become indistinguishable by mid morning but nonetheless the 'energies' involved with it could well continue unrealized until late today / early this evening.

Temperatures aloft are expected to cool a few degrees very late this afternoon after a full day of insolation, resulting in ample instability (Convective Available Potential Energy) with some bulk shear (wind shear aloft) involved mainly from a Melbourne to Tampa line northward.

 Expect that this boundary will be will south of I-4 by late today as (meanwhile) the West Coast Sea breeze - which will be the dominant sea breeze today as steering for storms is from west to east (generally speaking)- meets up to the East Coast Sea Breeze. The West Coast/East Coast sea breeze collision as such seems most likely to occur east of  the spine of the state, effectually (for storms) along a line from near Sanford southward toward Yeehaw Junction (southern Osceola County).

All said and done, as of early this morning at least, it appears we could see a strong storm or two mainly across 'anywhere Brevard County toward Indian River County'. More 'isolated' activity could also occur mainly as a result of outflows from said 'possible storms' even later and further south toward Ft Pierce along a by then, 'retired Lake Okeechobee Breeze'.

The 'most likely time for storms to form and make impacts in regard to this particularly cited activity' is from around 6pm - 9pm across far Southeast Volusia County, western Brevard County toward the immediate coast (eventually), later then for perhaps far NE Okeechobee County toward interior Indian River to St Lucie Counties . Otherwise, another warm day in store.

THURSDAY: An actual frontal boundary will be working south of 1-10 ..into North Central Florida by late in the day. There is a RISK (marginal) of Severe Category storms (mainly due to wind) in much the same areas as noted in the graphic shown above in this blog post once again . Will not bother going into details for Thursday in this post as much will be revealed after today is through in regard to where any lingering boundaries after today's storms might eventually be the prime focus of storm activity tomorrow.

Again, for today it appears the main player for today is the outflow boundary from the north combined with the merger of the West and East coast Sea breezes which will provide low level lift along with a full day of insolation and mounting instability coupled with lowering upper level temperatures (which might be key). Of course, there is the chance all we'll see is 'generic' showers and some lightning, but given consistency now in several model runs of varying model guidance will go with the potentially strong to near severe early this evening for far eastern sections of East Central Florida.

Risk of a Strong/Marginally Severe Storm Late Today (East Central)

 

Late May Storm -2020 
 There are Signs / Signals today
Indicating that there is the potential
for a 'near severe storm' along and
east of I-95 Today

TODAY: First post in quite a while - as weather officially is getting into 'the warm' with no return to cold foreseen anywhere on the horizon. Ocean temperatures off East Central are getting closer to 80F now helping to make sea breeze - lake breeze boundaries potentially more effective than when the ocean is colder. That, and for today we have plenty of heating , just enough moisture (barely)..a  good west coast dominate sea breeze to work east across the state, lack of strong 'suppression from aloft' plus cold air aloft and some wind shear combined all could help make a situation for 'pre-summer thunderstorm like' activity with the bonus of winds and cold dry air aloft to add some punch to the crunch.

The best chance of a strong storm today, IF one can form, appears would be near to just east of I-95 from Volusia County southward down toward inland Palm Beach County and around the Big Lake (Okeechobee).

Noting that late in the day though wind across much of the state will be from the Southwest the East coast sea breeze running 'up the coast' form the SE-SSE combined with the winds of Lake Okeechobee could set up for two to even a three way boundary collision (s) later further north toward Brevard County. Watch out especially if near the rivers (esp. the Banana River) the late afternoon wind in that area seems unusually gusty (!). All eyes to the W - SW after 5pm if you are on the Barrier Islands.

Morning sounds are showing an INVERTED - "V" profile with drier air closer to the ground, a layer of very moist air, then colder and drier air above that. The D-CAPE values (Downdraft Convective Available Potential Energy) as such then is more than sufficient by all indications combined with the cold air aloft to result in wind gusts in the 50-60mph (at least) , hence adding in that risk (and/or for small hail as well).

The big question though is IF a storm can get really started in the environment that is forecast to set up later today. At this time, things are not quite sufficient, and much can change as we get past the noon- 1PM time frame. It may be at that time (even) that it will become apparent that any storm risk at all will have vanished -- but then again, it might be come apparent that the risk is even greater yet still (!).

End of story is, the best chance for strong storm at this point seems to be near interior Indian River County and again from around Port St  John toward Titusville/Mims corridor southward into North/Central Brevard County after 5:30PM or so.

 TOMORROW-THURSDAY: Again, more chances for storms in the afternoon, especially on WEDNESDAY. Temperatures aloft might warm a little bit tomorrow so not so sure about strong activity (or even much at all except more inland) but that day is not yet here so will be watching.

So far, the GFS model has been hitting pretty hard on WEDNESDAY for much better coverage and possibly some stronger storms then as well. 

Potential For "Overnight Warm Up" Along A1A Tonight

 The end of the coldest days of the 2020-21 Winter Season so far are drawing to an end after yet another 'cold' day today and again tomorrow morning (mainly inland and toward the West Side of the State). NNW to N winds during the day today will keep it quite cool (well below normal); however, winds are expected to become more N-NNE-NE overnight tonight, mainly right at the beaches (mostly from near The Cape and South). 

Most guidance is hinting at at WARM UP after midnight at some point between 2AM-5AM along the outermost barrier islands of Brevard (along A1A strip) southward toward Southeast Florida and around to the Keys -- that is to say, what I'd consider to be 'often the Warmest Location in the Entire Country' on some winter (and fall) mornings. Yes, the warmest location in the entire country is fairly often the Barrier Islands of Brevard and south through The Keys, and by tomorrow morning we might have one of those cases.

Though temperatures might fall toward dark I'm thinking they will level off in these locations and then even begin to rise slowly at some point after midnight. Thus, for those especially along and even East of A1A you might find warmer temperatures at 5AM tomorrow morning than what it will be at say 8-10PM tonight by as much as as 5-10F degrees (!). 

We will see. 

Along with any warming will be cloud cover as well. The Latest HRRR implies we could see some High Cirrus (rather dense) begin to stream overhead during the night which alone could stop or slow down temperature falls, but then we could see some patches of low cloud advect onshore as well. As you can see , there is PLENTY of low clouds just off shore the Florida East Coast as of NOON TIME this Saturday afternoon, as shown in this Noon time visible Satellite Image below.

SUNDAY: Apart from the 'potential' overnight warming discussed above, it will warm up anyway after sunrise (well into the mid-upper 60Fs) tomorrow, depending on overall cloud cover (though). Too many clouds would keep a better warm up at bay. Regardless, after Sunday morning the cold spell is OVER at long last for several days to come.

MONDAY: And that is not the end of it for the east coast. Latest 4KM NAM shows continued 'surging' of warmer air to encroach on the East Coast overnight Sunday evening into Monday Morning. Yes, Monday Morning along the east coast could well be in the mid-60Fs south of the Cape right at the beaches, or at least in the lower 60Fs. A 20F degree warm up from Friday and Saturday mornings...that is going into Early Tuesday.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY: Normal to a bit above 'normal' temperatures as we warm up. Looks like a chance of Rain Showers could occur mainly along The Treasure Coast (Vero Beach toward West Palm Beach area) however sometime going into Sunday night and/or Monday, but Brevard looks to stay dry at this point.

NEW YEAR'S EVE - DAY: Thursday Night Midnight is New Year's Eve Night going into 2021. At current time the GFS model has a cold front stretched North/South Down the state of Florida on this Very Night. Timing this far out is questionable, so at this point it's 'the general idea'. It appears there 'might' be again the 'risk' or 'threat' of severe weather with this frontal boundary (mainly due to strong wind gusts). The model is showing a better chance of RAINfall though (at this point) than it ever did with the previous front.  So the overall gist is, NEW YEAR'S EVE NIGHT, especially after 9PM could become increasingly risking of rain chances, even storms - and be quite breezy - But at least it won't be cold (!)..it will be a WARM EVENING if the front holds off until after midnight, at least if one lives east of I95.

NEW YEAR's DAY: Latest Guidance has really slowed down on the timing of this next front AND held back on 'Temperature Impacts' from it as well. Actually, it shows the front not making a 'clean passage' across the state until well into the afternoon on New Year's Day - this leaves a lot up in the air (therefore) as to when exactly cloud cover and/or rain chances will end (if not begin even as well) during the time frame from Sunset New Year's Eve to Sunset New Year's Day.

 That entire Day, therefore, is still one big Question Mark in regard to Rain chances and as such temperatures as well. It looks certain at this point that New Year's Day will not be a cold day, but rather see temperatures in the Lower 70Fs (at this point).

FOLLOWING NEW YEAR'S DAY: No Big COLD Spell. Temperatures look now to be generally around 'normal' to a tad below with the next front is about it. Lows at the beach perhaps in the lower 50Fs and bit colder inland, with highs in the upper 60Fs, lower 70Fs with one Big Caveat. The GFS is showing a Very Sudden Change to occur just off the Florida East Coast overnight Sunday with a Coastal Trough forming into a Closed Low that gets quite potent. 

Rain chances near the coast pick up and winds make a rapid shift to the north...all within a 12 hour window. This Time Frame bears watching - looks very   'skeptical' at this point to me - regardless, it has been rather consistent in the attempt to pick up that 'something' might go on during this time frame which bears watching.

Coldest Christmas Since 1995 Possible - Storms/Cold Rain on The Way Tonight

 The advertised potent cold front is well on its way early this afternoon now passing through the Panhandle Region. Ahead of the front wind is going to be picking up out of the southwest and be gusting at times as cloud coverage comes and goes. 

Winds at the surface will be SSW-SW whereas winds in the mid-upper levels are from the west to west-northwest. Animation of visible satellite imagery clearly shows low level clouds moving northward at the same time high clouds are beginning to stream in from the west. This 'change of wind with height' (and strong winds aloft at that) is the main-key to the severe weather potential though there is instability as well mainly south of I-4 across the Eastern Half of the state. Thus, for BLOG Purposes highlighted only that area for any strong/severe risk (as shown above).

 Be that as it may, model guidance of 'simulated radar' is not really showing any severe storms - but despite that - strong winds at the ground could occur if a stronger updraft does get going. At this time, The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has almost all of the state under a 'Marginal Risk' of severe weather into this evening.

Otherwise, the COLD FRONT PROPER is anticipated (per models) to stretch (as shown ABOVE) across Central Florida from near Port Canaveral to Sarasota around 10PM this evening. Several models agree in this timed positioning of the boundary give or take two hours either side of 10PM. 

It might too be noted that light to moderate rain might occur AFTER the front has passed which means a COLD WINDY RAIN with temperatures in the lower-mid 50FS for a few hours AFTER the cold front passes.

Granted, by that time hopefully all will be  well settled in 'for a long winter's nap' - as it will be around midnight to the wee hours not fit for a mouse that the colder rain will or might occur during.

I've included the earlier 'Forecast Discussion' from the National Weather Service (NWS) from Melbourne (MLB) that highlights much of the same mentioned herein .  

It might too be noted that by Christmas Morning at sunrise temperatures might continue to fall or level off for much of the morning hours due to continued "Cold Air Advection' into the state from the northwest helped along with winds gusting in the 18-28mph range for a while. 

It is expected that most of Central Florida will not get much out of either the upper 40Fs or lower 50Fs on Christmas Day. This might well be the coldest Christmas we've experienced since 1995 (though that one was much colder, well into and below freezing for several hours).

By Christmas Evening winds will be backing off under clearing skies, but temperatures will also fall once again. Saturday morning will be colder than Christmas Morning, with low-mid 30F readings possible all the way around to the south side of Lake Okeechobee (in the interior regions).

Across Central Florida we'll mostly see 'mid to upper 30Fs' possibly even right at the coast with Freezings possible near/along the Route 27 corridor - though expect it might be closer to 40F along the outer most barrier islands. 

Either way, Saturday is going to be the colder of the two mornings, with Sunday morning not far behind. Warming trend, though at first slowly, commences Sunday afternoon and runs through until New Year's Eve.

The next 'bigger front' is on tap as of now to enter Florida on 'New Year's Eve'. There was one year I recall we had a 'Severe Thunderstorm Watch' issued on Christmas Eve followed later by a 'Tornado Watch' on New Year's Eve - that was at least 20 years ago, though I remember it well. The timing is about right between systems (one week) this time of year for such. At time, not anticipating we will see a  'severe thunderstorm watch' though with this system. The next cold front around New Year's Time Frame is at this point not forecast to be as 'potent' in terms of cold air.

Good Chance of Rain / Storm Christmas Eve - Cold Christmas Day & Day After

 Warming trend commences later today into the overnight (especially notable right along the Eastern most barrier islands by Wednesday morning) as high pressure north of the state drifts eastward resulting in northeast wind (though light) later today and all through the night. There is a chance, however, that the pressure gradient associated with the high pressure will not over-come the diurnal cooling effects overnight tonight, thus allowing a 'land breeze' to 'win the day' at the coast instead. Overall, inland areas will still be quite cool Wednesday morning, but the outer most barrier islands do have a chance that at some point after 3-4AM they will actually warm to the upper 50Fs to lower 60Fs rather than be in the lower 50Fs. Otherwise, no rain.

The warming trend continues through the 23rd (Wednesday) and into the 24th (*Christmas Eve) as wind becomes southwesterly and increases. We could see mid-upper 70Fs on Christmas Eve Day  -- it might even be one of the warmest days we've seen in a while. 

On the other hand, a line of potentially strong storms will be entering the Panhandle Region by early-mid morning and be progressing eastward ahead of a potent Cold Front. There is a risk that some storm activity might go up well ahead of the actual line too, specifically across South Central toward South Florida (from a line near Cape Canaveral to Sarasota and south) at any time after 3 or 4pm Christmas Eve. Though that is an outlier risk, the better chance of rain now appears to be at some point between 6:30pm - 9pm in the evening.

There is a chance still that some activity could be strong/severe but the official outlets are not calling for that to be the case -regardless, we will have strong shear overhead - so at least it could get 'very windy' when the rains come in , whenever that will be.

CHRISTMAS DAY - Day After: The cold front itself is expected to be situated very close to Central Brevard County along a Northeast to Southwest Line some time around 8 or 9PM and be plowing southeastward through the state with solid cold air advection in its wake. Temperatures falling through the evening and into the morning hours accompanied by wind  anywhere from 15mph -25mph with higher gusts.

Very cool and blustery ALL DAY Christmas Day - the NAM model suggests that Central Florida won't even reach 50F degrees this day, but suspect overkill. In any case, highs may only be in the lower 50S to upper 40Fs across much of Central/North Central Florida (warmer south). Then, as darkness comes Christmas Evening, the wind should start to die off and temperatures will really go down.

I've seen forecasts (such as from the Canadian model) showing upper 20Fs for interior portions of Central Florida on the morning of the 26th, but that is an outlier. Most guidance suggests mid-upper 30Fs just about everywhere and anywhere. However we look at it, it's going to be a chilly morning on the 26th and the 27th (not so much along the coast on the 27th).  

DECEMBER 28: There will be a gradual warm up toward 'normal' temperatures beginning Sunday afternoon but it might be brief, as it looks like a re-enforcing front is going to be coming through (dry) only to keep the temperatures to below normal (though not as cold as what will be experienced on the 25th through the morning of the 27th).

BEYOND: No big 'really cold' spells are showing up as of yet -- just for fun I looked at a climatological forecast series and it showed that February might be above to well above 'normal' in regard to temperatures . Who knows, maybe these up coming days will be the 'coldest' we'll see all winter.