Cumulus Along I-95 near noon
KSC 15Z Sounding for 8/12/09
FIRST OFF: I want to apologize for the formatting of some of these posts. I can't control where or how the images are displayed nor make the type column wider (unless I go into indepth, time-consuming HTML decoding)
Local Wx Update: I can sum up this update in one word after having time to digest the latest "everything" - DISAPPOINTING. It seemed promising while driving along I-95 around noon with fairly vigorous Cu going up alquads...needless to say I think that was the highlight of the day. Seabreeze by now has reached I-95 while the west coast one is meandering and not really moving at all. So much for the seabreeze collision theory. Additionally, later sounding data is in as shown (click to enlarge). In comparing this with the earlier post, the PWATs (precipitable water values) have actually dropped and winds other than the surface are 5 kts. or less essentially. In other words, no steering, little moisture except at the lowest levels, less than moderate instability all leads to the following: ----
Today: Convective activity up and down the West coast of the peninsula plus a weak gulf breeze will send out various boundaries into the interior but no further than to generate additional activity from Orlando west. This in turn may send out yet additional boundaries further east which will eventually meet the by then east coast seabreeze near the exact spine around 5pm. Outflows from these activities (showers/storms) will most likely not make it as far as I-95 except further north from Flagler County northbound where some good storms may blossom. Not expecting any sunset activity in the immediate area given all of the above.
Tropical Activity: Another let down. The closest tropical wave (of now many) will likely not make it near C. Florida as the ridge indeed will join forces and block northward progress as discussed yesterday (as a possibility). Additionally, the previously mentioned "potential hurricane" is already history. Gee, this is starting to sound like deciding when to hit the Plains for chasing (sound familiar?). And to add insult to injury, we will be in this so so pattern for a few days until what's left of the wave passes by...then steering currents will most definitively be coming from an easterly component on the back side of the passing wave meaning, no coastal thunderstorms.
But wait!!: There's always tomorrow and another model run. Ah...the life.
Today: Convective activity up and down the West coast of the peninsula plus a weak gulf breeze will send out various boundaries into the interior but no further than to generate additional activity from Orlando west. This in turn may send out yet additional boundaries further east which will eventually meet the by then east coast seabreeze near the exact spine around 5pm. Outflows from these activities (showers/storms) will most likely not make it as far as I-95 except further north from Flagler County northbound where some good storms may blossom. Not expecting any sunset activity in the immediate area given all of the above.
Tropical Activity: Another let down. The closest tropical wave (of now many) will likely not make it near C. Florida as the ridge indeed will join forces and block northward progress as discussed yesterday (as a possibility). Additionally, the previously mentioned "potential hurricane" is already history. Gee, this is starting to sound like deciding when to hit the Plains for chasing (sound familiar?). And to add insult to injury, we will be in this so so pattern for a few days until what's left of the wave passes by...then steering currents will most definitively be coming from an easterly component on the back side of the passing wave meaning, no coastal thunderstorms.
But wait!!: There's always tomorrow and another model run. Ah...the life.
"Its seems to me a change is really needed, I'm sick of tra la las, and la de das"
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