"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, August 24, 2009

"Florida Front Fiascos" By George

The atmosphere is not feeling well today, nor is my cat "Lola" (give her a click)

It's sort of amazing today actually, having a front situated across Central Florida in August?! I don't recall that ever happening. The graphic above is showing the Convection Available Potential Energy forecast for this afternoon. One can see where the boundary between No CAPE and some of it lies. But it's not that easy......
With that, the forecast becomes somewhat problematic as far as how far north will the precipitation line make it today from it's current location (?)...which can be either parallel and over I-4 from Tampa to Daytona, OR along a secondary leading trough that lies somewhere in S. Brevard along the coast. The second trough, having passed N. Brevard..has shifted the wind temporarily to the NE along the coast as of 1:30pm in Cape Canaveral. This should be short lived though as it mixes out by 4pm and the c-breeze becomes the dominating feature.

In any case, it seems it will be that second trough that will determine where earlier preciptation can form (south of it), otherwise it could be well near sunset..if at all every where else between that boundary and the I-4 'front'.
As I type, a line of towering Cu that extened from the Cape across Merritt Island and into SE Orange County literally got its head cut off right through the middle leaving remant stratocumulus and the ends stranded aloft. The line is attempting to re-establish itself now but the Cu further south have become greatly diminshed with my guess being the passage of the second boundary (which is not depicted on any of the models)

Until the atmosphere can recycle and swings/veers to the SE we are pretty much in limbo. It's a waiting game. Anything that goes up today will likely move just E of due North well south of that second boundary..with the exeption of where the second trough lays it s dying remains..that activity may more closely follow that boundary in a more ENE direction.

The one thing that the models seem to have come agreement upon is that the immediate coast might escape rain today altogether..and that most activity will be west of US1 after 5pm. Confidence in strong activity is not very high today, contingent upon how well that second boundary can mix out. If it doen''t mix out as thought, then rain chances will be low except maybe well west of I-95. Where the air is more greatly modified back to normal levels and away from the seabreeze.

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