"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, August 27, 2009

Ol' Danny Boy

(above: Lola excitedly discovering Historical U.S. Tornadoes)
Starting out the morning with nearly clear skies and very light east wind. Expect today to be much like yesterday, but with two distinct weather "periods" defining the evolution of today's events:
1) with shower activity developing right along the immediate coast between 9-10am and continuing up until 1pm with the onset of stronger onshore flow. The magic spot for Central Florida this morning should be over and near the tip of the Cape and secondary preferred area along the Port entrance. Cloud lines should start to develop in earnest by 10am until noon.
2) with the develop of the onshore sea-breeze may also come an enhancement or surge of moisture which is missing this morning in the lower to mid levels of the atmosphere. This could mean some prolonged activity until about 1pm, but after that time everything should be well along and west of I-95 with the exception of Volusia County and points north. Do not expect thunder today in Brevard County east of I-95.

Ol' Danny Boy - Interesting scenario evolving although none directly related to Danny will affect East Central Florida until late today and especially Friday. Meteorlogically, there won't be much affect as it does not appear that subsidence around the periphery of the system will reach here; but long period, deep swells with long lines (high in latitude but low in longitude (height) so to speak_...might make for long, small closeout surf later today under mildly choppy surf conditions. As Danny moves north a gradual merger with the East Coast trough will ensue and be complete by the time the storm reaches the latitude of the Carolinas. It will then take off to the NNE paralleling the U.S. East Coast and eventually make landfall in Nova Scotia as a sub-tropical entity. Not sure if it will ever reach official hurricane status, although pressure gradient between the system and continental high pressure could create hurricane force gusts along the immediate coast from New England and points north.

What this all means for us: Once the merger with the continental low/trough takes place the storm steering flow that has been in place since Monday will shift to WSW in the wee hours Friday and strengthen as the day progresses, being in full swing by late afternoon, coinciding with post max heating.

There are hints that a dry slot intrusion may also occur at this time which would really put a damper on overall thunderstorm coverage Friday, but not completely. The flow pattern will persist in strength through Saturday, and as what might be extra-tropical Danny moves north the dry slot will follow leaving the area in a greater vertical moisture profile, and hence enhanced thunderstorm probabilities.

Once Danny is completely out of the picture the trough will persist along the U.S. East Coast, and the pattern we've had most of this summer will be re-installed for probably its last fling of the summer. Give it through Tuesday to persist in varying degrees of strength, but after that summer storms might well be over for the immediate coasts for any more than a one or two-sy day period through mid-September...with the west coast of Florida, specifically from the spine of the state and around Lake Okeechobee to the west coast to get the brunt of storms, in majority, after the first week of September for their lasts flings as well.

A cold front will also plunge deep into the Southeast US during the second time in the past couple of weeks, likely breaking record low temps across the mid-west and near the Gulf Coast, but never penetrating quite as far south as Central Florida, hmmm..until maybe Wednesday?
It's at this time that it either crosses us or loses its identity almost right on us.

The westerly steering flow will not be so strong as to offset afternoon sea-breeze convergences though, so there stands a chance of seeing some 'items of in interest' for photographic purposes. Each day will vary in preferred locations, timing of initiation, etc...leaving this lone blog-ster a few things to write about.
What's on the horizon tropics wise? Not much other than that after Tuesday we may be back to unforecastable tropical waves again, with the first giving hints already in the long term range developing around next Thursday (September 3).

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