"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, September 27, 2009

Summery Hot...and Maybe Even Wet Today

Several changes are in store for east central Florida the next two days starting with last night. Overall steering has finally shifted from being easterly as it has been for at least two weeks to being from the west. The change occurred as expected late Saturday and was heralded by some brief rain after midnight. Those steering currents will remain in place the remainder of this week, at least until Friday.

For today, a cold front is currently located from around Jacksonville to Cross City. This front will sink into Central Florida during the course of the day then slide off to the east with no impact temperature wise. Ahead of the front the air mass is still pretty 'wet'...and with probably no sea-breeze today things will heat up into the low 90s, even along the coast. There is currently some scattered shower activity ahead of the frontal boundary along the west half of the state which will translate eastward during the course of the day. We might not wait for the leading edge of this precipitation to reach us for rain chances to pick up a notch. With all the heating and ample moisture in place, expect at least some widely scattered activity to develop in the 12:30-1:30pm time frame along the east half of the state (there is a caveate to this as noted in the next paragraph). Activity will then become more 'full blow' in the 3pm time frame and last until after sunset, mainly east of the I-4 corridor.

There seems to be a brief, relatively dry slot of air aloft currently over the area which may off set rain chances for a time early in the afternoon, but this should be gone after the more full blown chances move in from 3pm onward. I don't believe this front will actually make it through the area, but rather wash out completely over us; however, somewhat drier air will user in behind it for a time over night tonight and through Monday.

Then fall, or a hint of it, arrives late Tuesday in the form of yet another cold front. At this time, it appears the front will pass through East Central Florida mid-afternoon be followed by yet drier air in earnest, northerly winds, and slightly cooler temperatures, especially during the overnight hours where "window opening weather" may very well be possible Tuesday and Wednesday nights at bedtime. But don't expect anything earth shattering, just cool enough to do that for the brave at heart (or with a tolerance for sleeping in low 70s weather). High temperatures will be in the mid-80s but with the air being so much drier, the change will be noticeable. The areas west of the I-4 corridor will see the biggest morning cool down as far south as Sarasota with temperatures into the mid-upper 60s. Actually, the more that I think about it...areas west of U.S. 1 may very well break the 70 degree mark. It's the immediate coastal area, surrounded by warm water on all sides, that will feel the least impact from this change in the weather. It's always the "very" immediate coast that is the last to feel true fall weather as a rule anyway...due to the surrounding warm water which takes quite a while to modify.

Anyway, the front may again provide for a shot of rain Tuesday afternoon, restricted to the eastern peninsula south of Daytona Beach where some lingering moisture may reside. But this front will shove even that possibility out to sea in its wake until at least late Friday.

On Friday and during the course of the week thereafter a moderate zonal (west to east) steering flow will reside across much of the south half of the continental U.S. with a fairly active pattern running along the jet stream across the Northern Plains...the Great Lakes..and the Northeast U.S.

The first of these systems may make a brief dip south into the Central Plains providing a shot of severe weather mostly over Kansas and Nebraska and maybe western Iowa late this Wednesday through Thursday, although northeast Okalahoma can't be discounted.

Florida may be intermittently affected by the extreme southern tip of a system or two, but for the most part our weather along the east coast will be dictated by a weak, shallow onshore flow after Friday which will modify the drier air mass to normal moisture levels. Not sure if this moisture will stretch deep enough up into the atmosphere though to induce coastal showers starting late Friday and into next week...but that's still 5 days away.