"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, June 19, 2010

"Not Too Exciting" Thunderstorm Prospects Today

The atmosphere seems to have closed the chapter on any late morning prospects for thunderstorms today, and late afternoon isn't looking so great either at this point. The morning KSC sounding is showing appreciable, but less PWAT values today than yesterday, and there is no discernible (even when I try hard to use my imagination) surface boundaries in place other than perhaps a ridge axis extending from Cocoa Beach to just west of Orlando. This axis is becoming evident aloft on the sounding as well...indicative of the shut down of coastal thunderstorm chances to come (no later than Monday).

An overall east-west storm steering current appears to be in progress from Indian River County and points south toward Miami which would take any activity that goes up along I-95 off to the west down that way. Brevard appears to be under nil flow...but hints of the east to west push are already evident in the mid-upper levels of the atmosphere per the sounding. The atmosphere, overall, is less unstable today (for the start of the day at least) and as indicated by both the RUC and NAM this may very well be the case for the rest of the day.

This is not to say that there won't be storms today. But at this time it appears that the earliest activity will not eventually get going along the east coast sea breeze primarily until it works its way west of I-95 ...then storm eruption in standard fashion will be the rule of the day. For the most part, though, not expecting particularly strong storms today due to the lack of the necessary thermal/moisture profiles in the vertical (which are needed for strong downburst winds or small hail).

I was wondering yesterday what the early day activity on the west side of the state would end up resulting in. Essentially, it resulted in the entire area being washed out or 'nullified' of greater late afternoon instability leaving the region nearly void of storms by 4-5pm. This should not be the case today...but then again parameters overall do not look as good for overall storm intensity. Don't think we'll be seeing 'sloppy seconds' today..but the first serving might not be all so tasty.

Seeing as how this is Florida without any real inhibiting factors at play, can't rule out a decent storm or two in the mid-late afternoon once the dice are rolled...but those should be isolated and very short lived in nature.

Areas south of Indian River or St. Lucie County will not likely see much of anything today until one gets well west of I-95. Further north where the easterly flow has yet to set up in earnest there will remain the ever present chance of a storm going up along US-1 or I-95 as the sea breeze makes its initial presence known, but for the most part all activity should be west of I-95 once the pressure cooker pops and lightning gets crackin'. Was hoping to go for a 'scenic drive' today into Osceola County today to a least get up close and personal to one of these storms and will continue to monitor as things develop but as of this time the atmosphere looks like it's going to be less than enthusiastic to have any peeping Tom's lurking in on its activity this afternoon. Just going to have to grin-n-bear it...and watch to see what happens. Beach goers should have a fine day enjoy the surf (the knees slappers that is).

No comments: