"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, July 18, 2010

Break the Grip of the Rip

(Image shows the procedure to escape a rip current)
RIP CURRENTS: I used to hear it called 'undertow' but not in quite a while. Perhaps it's because such terminology is misleading. A rip current is a horizontal current. It doesn't pull people under - it pulls them out. Be advised that over 67 rip current rescues have been made the past couple days in Brevard County alone and the conditions persist for them them to continue. This is an especially plausible concern considering the weather conditions lately that lead people to the beach. The best way to avoid them in the first place is to closely observe the ocean's surface close to shore. They are often discernible by a particularly odd, choppier appearance to the water's surface than surrounding waters. But this may not always be the case. Avoid venturing into waters above your waist.

SYNOPSIS: Persistence. The key player, as had been the case now for a couple of days, is strong "Bermuda High" pressure anchored across the West Atlantic ocean with the axis extending west across roughly the Florida / Georgia border . Indeed, latest KSC sounding indicates an even warmer 700mb layer than the past couple of days at 12+ C degrees which will greatly inhibit development of even a weak rain shower. In the area less directly affected by this high pressure system (which includes extreme South Florida, Cuba, and the southern Bahamian islands) minor perturbations or weak, inverted troughs of low pressure are rotating around the southern periphery providing for passing blows of enhanced atmospheric moisture and subsequent rain showers and even some thunderstorms. In fact, Puerto Rico experienced a land-falling waterspout yesterday which caused damage and disrupted activities for the Caribbean Games. Saharan Air Layer (SAL) conditions appear to have abated for the short term locally - the sky looks quite blue this morning.

TODAY: One of those passing blows crossed South Florida last night and early this morning and provided for some passing showers from around Ft. Pierce to Miami. Some residual moisture resides down that way this morning...just how long it will last is questionable. Model guidance suggests it will be enough for more activity down there today, but I believe it is overdone. In any case, closer to home for Indian River and Brevard County the forecast remains dry. Low temperatures near 80 and highs near 90 have been the rule the past 2 days and this trend will continue throughout the coming week. Thunderstorm activity will be restricted to western portions of Lake Okeechobee and points west of there.

MONDAY: Perhaps some increased moisture will make its presence known. I'm playing the pessimist today and leaning toward last night's NAM solution which introduced no rain. Any of those passing blows will remain south of Brevard, but could eke out a shower along the Treasure Coast. The further south one goes the more likely one is to get into the 'juice' and rain showers.

TUESDAY-SATURDAY: No change. This period will be characterized by a pattern which was discussed several days ago and has now come to fruition. That being the predominant conditions will be rain free with only sparsely timed periods of enhanced moisture and a slight chance of showers which could happen any time of the day or night every 36-60 hours and last for about 6 hours when they do make an impact. Timing of when such conditions will approach and make an impact is impossible to predict more than 24 hours out.

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