"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, July 29, 2010

Clash of the Sea Breezes

SYNOPSIS: High pressure that stretched across the state from Atlantic to the Gulf  for many days seems to making its final break today with a western High pressure center in the Gulf retrograding further off toward the WNW (and eventually the South Central U.S) and the eastern High center well east of the Florida peninsula. With those two highs taken care of we can now focus our attention on a low-mid level trough which extends down the Eastern U.S. seashore to near the Georgia Coast. The trough seems to in the process of a dig just south enough to merge with the thermally induced trough which will develop down the spine of the state during max heating of the day. With the two high pressure centers well enough off either coast and a thermal trough in place...this puts Central Florida in a position of neutrality, with the trough having the greatest influence of the three late this afternoon through at least Sunday. As such, believe the west and east coast sea breeze will not have much problem with working inland this afternoon.
TODAY: Upper level sounding from KSC was unrevealing as far as wind goes, and as would be expected given the current circumstances.  Moisture level (PWAT) was lower than yesterday but believe this will be only temporary as we work into the afternoon hours. Today could end up being a close to classic sea breeze collision day with activity beginning along and ahead of each as they work inland ...with the final amassing of the forces occurring over Lake - western half of Volusia Counties to the north southward to the North Shore of the Lake. In other words, just about anywhere west of I-95 and along and east of Route 27 in all of Central Florida.
By late afternoon as we work into the early evening hours the lower portions of the mid-level trough may exert a stronger influence from Vero Beach north along the east coast which would project the closest activity to drift toward coastal communities. The end result may be only a trace of rainfall right along the coast...but areas from Port Canaveral north toward Ormond Beach may actually here thunder (at least). Another favored area would be near  Lake Okeechobee...although the area is somewhat questionable at this time.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: Much the same conditions and locations will be favored for thunderstorms as today, but with yet a better chance of more and stronger activity penetrating east of I-95 toward the coast. Just exactly how far east any storm gets is contingent on any one storm's strength (thus vertical extent) at the time, of which is impossible to know when or where that will occur today. But overall, these two days appear to be the best opportunity that the East Coast of Florida from Ormond south to West Palm has seen all summer for a thunderstorm.
SUNDAY-MONDAY: At this point these days are somewhat 'up for grabs'...but at this point the models seem to be hedging for at least Sunday and probably Monday to end up much like today...but with time gradually favoring more of the west side of the state late each afternoon, particularly on Monday. However, early afternoon activity would still be possible on these days if atmospheric conditions warrant for the US1-I95 corridor all along Florida's East Central area.  Elsewhere, the big news story might be news of a big heat build up over the lower Mississippi Valley region which will spread west and north as we work into the beginning of next week.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY: Believe eyes will start to focus either on the Tropical Atlantic of maybe even WELL OFF the Carolina coast as the mid level trough will be loitering well off the U.S. coast for several days and a wave approaches Puerto Rico. Thunderstorm wise, activity will focus more toward the area of the state west of the Florida Turnpike.

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