"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, July 13, 2010

Light the Fuse...But Will it be a Dud?

REVIEW: Pretty quiet day yesterday overall in the broad scheme of things, considering how actively it began early around noon time. The only real storm in Central Florida was over N. Brevard which resulted from a collision of OFBs (outflow boundaries). If you weren't in or near Titusville it was dry other than some other sparsely scattered showers. A "fluke of nature" shower went up over Patrick AFB around 3am this morning abetted by the wake of yesterday's departing wave. But it was short lived, small, and evaporated into oblivion before the sun came up.

SYNOPSIS: No atmospheric 'surf' today (i.e., no waves/disturbances). The main weather influence for the immediate area today is high pressure extending almost perfectly along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from Texas to Florida at the mid-levels. At the surface the axis of high pressure tilts south to a location over the tippy toes of South Florida. Clockwise circulation around the mid-upper level high is slopping high levels clouds over it's crest and around the bend, draping high level cirrus debris clouds across the area like wet clothes hanging on the clothes line.

Latest KSC sounding indicates ample PWAT (precipitable water) for showers/storms at all levels, but other than than very little to speak of especially with relatively warm temperatures aloft unconducive for initial shower formation to explode in and of itself. Winds are another story, namely because they are close to non-existent the whole way up to 35,000 ft! Storms in earnest won't manifest without the aid of surface boundary convergences (a.k.a. - sea breeze / lake breezes) which can't occur until we get some good heating and early shower activity collapses and sends out a boundary. I am very suspiciously eyeing an area of very poor (low) lapse rates loitering along the the west half of Central Florida which could be approaching the region as we speak. Also wondering if subsidence behind the parting wave will put the lid on possible early activity. If this area of low lapse rates and the subsidence theory is a reality......shower activity could be non-existent for earlier portions of the day for the coast. But playing the devil's advocate (i.e., favoring a rain chance)....

EARLY TODAY: Unlike the past few days, sea breeze initiation will be earlier...between 10:45am - noon. As such, coastal temperatures will be normal. If it's going to rain along A1A anywhere from West-Palm to Oak Hill it's going to have to be within 1-2 hours of that time frame. For any one up by Canaveral, you might want to eye the Cape extension area for something to go up over areas like the Merritt Island Wildlife Refuge to Pads A and B. Could a funnel or waterspout be possible with such light winds aloft? In any case, this is the area that it seems most likely to at least get some lightning from if it even initiates at all.

LATER TODAY: Regardless of whether or not the A1A-US1 corridor from Oak Hill-West Palm initiates it will be the perfect "west coast meets east coast sea breeze collision late in the day" type of day. Just where this collision will occur is any one's guess. We can take it a step further though and wonder just exactly where a storm(s) will go up once the collision occurs. Just because a Lake-Lake, Sea-Sea, or Lake-Sea Boundary collision happens doesn't guarantee storm initiation. It's sort of like lighting a firecracker. You watch the fuse fizzle to the very end..then when the spark meets the bomb it's either BOOM or a dud.

Storm motion will be totally contingent upon propagation and further initiation along previously established boundaries...all of which will go on away from the coast. The most likely region, but not exclusively, for all of this to occur will be over Eastern Polk, all of Osceola, Orange, Lake, Seminole Western Volusia, and within 20 miles of the shores of Lake Okeechobee after 4pm. In such a set up, it's also possible a storm could go up over extreme SW Brevard late in the day assuming that we do indeed get late afternoon activity inland that sounds a boundary back toward the coast.

TOMORROW: Will be watching for much the same developments for early in the day with similar results...but by late in the day everything will be well inland with best concentrations of rain activity further west than today.

THURSDAY - THE WEEKEND: Good bye rain chances along the immediate coast. The ridge axis which is further south will be over North Florida and an E-SE steering flow will have been established at all atmospheric levels within the boundary layer. Eyeing the SAL (Saharan Air Layer) toward weeks end currently WAY out there in the Atlantic Ocean. Will it impact Florida? If it does...say hello to the 'weather from hell' (very warm, dry, and very hazy with light wind...zzzzzz)

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