"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, July 20, 2010

Seize The Moment

Current and Today: Latest satellite/radar imagery and animations, surface / sounding data, and short term forecast models all spread the same good news regarding precipitation for today. None. Not for East Central Florida that is. Barely a cloud in fact. But it will be hot everywhere except within 5-10 miles of the east coast shoreline. The SW and West Central Florida Coast will bear the brunt. But it's not the warm/hot weather that's making weather headlines last I tuned in. It's all eyes on the tropics.

SYNOPSIS: Strong high pressure from the Western Atlantic and across North Florida reigns the roost. There are no discernible perturbations or pockets of moisture or any other atmospheric creatures lurking in the shadows that will impact Central Florida through Wednesday. On the other hand, there is a tropical trouble maker out there in the form of an active tropical wave located near Puerto Rico that's been the topic of discussion. Implications of the impacts this system might have for Central and South Florida, as well as what type of weather will exist after it's passage (in whatever form that will eventually be) are both worthy of mention.

TODAY-EARLY THURSDAY: Clear to partly cloudy skies with warm evenings and hot days. Somewhere in there a pocket of moisture could ripple through with little impact. From an alternate perspective, there's about a 95% likelihood that it will not rain north of Sebastian Inlet. Head toward Miami and one's chances of a fast moving, brief shower go up but even those are few and far between. The area near Puerto Rico will waiver (excuse the pun) somewhere between being an open wave to closed circulation for another 18-36 hours as it pushes WNW toward extreme SE Florida. Wind shear on the north side and proximity to land being the primary reasons for the less than eager assemblage of the required forces.

MID-DAY THURSDAY - SATURDAY: Rather than muddy the waters and confuse things by elaborating on what/how/or why the various models depict what they do...I'm going to leave it at that conditions as we now know them will deteriorate as cloud coverage and rain chances go up. South Florida and the Upper Keys come first...then up the coast and into the Lower Keys as time goes on. We can elaborate progressively more on this system with each upcoming post.

One tid-bit of wisdom. Word will surely run rampant through all forms of media about the tropical developments, but trust only those sources known for reliability. Word of mouth about the tropics is no different than any rumor. As it spreads the truth progressively gets further from the truth. So consider your source.

AFTER SATURDAY: This system will not be the end all. There could be yet another wave following on the first one's heels which would continue the moisture rush...or another scenario is that the first one will abet in cracking the High Pressure's noggin once and for all as it merges with a mid-latitudinal trough which will have formulated along the U.S. East Coast.

Maybe this system in the long run is the long needed blessing in disguise rather than the wolf in sheep's clothing. The beginning of the end. An ends to a means. Maybe, just maybe, the thunderstorm season will finally begin and rainfall amounts over Central Florida will return to normal (from their below normal levels experienced so far this summer). On a side note, the folks from Ft. Lauderdale and through the Keys have climatologically had their share of measurable precipitation this summer...wouldn't you know that same area is the one most likely to be affected by the upcoming tropical event. Stay Tuned!

No comments: