"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, August 27, 2010

Early Afternoon Update For Florida Readers

(Image: Latest KSC sounding available on the net at 11am, Friday)
NOW: Included in this post is the latest KSC Sounding. Inspection of the sounding coupled with the morning model runs pretty much keeps the previous discussion on status quo. The exception is that there is pretty significant drying of the atmosphere with the PWAT having fallen from 1.97" to 1.79". Also, the 700mb temperature has gone up a degree as the low level inversion slowly erodes.  As expected, the ENE-NE winds at the surface have developed across much of the eastern half of the region, but the weaker midlevel WSW winds aloft continue but mainly over the what I'd consider to be in the upper portions of the mid-levels.
UPDATE FOR TODAY: Hence, expect no rain activity along a diffuse sea breeze boundary early in the afternoon...with a continued chance of storm development after peak heating (i.e. - after 4:00pm). From this time on storm height and coverage will increase with many areas not receiving any rain, whereas other areas will experience a brief period of very heavy rains with lightning. Unlike the earlier post, now looking at activity to once again make a late exit entirely from the area...last affecting the coastal communities as late as midnight. Orange and Seminole Counties seem to be the mostly likely areas to have the greatest rainfall totals when all is over with due to lingering activity.
SATURDAY: Looks like there could be a bit of a break in activity for Central Florida, but entirely so. In other words, no change yet in philosophy
SUNDAY: Fly in the ointment doing the breast stroke. Pattern reversal as expected with showers first coming onshore as soon as the pre-dawn hour which spread in coverage and intensity and coverage as the push toward the WSW across the spine of the state toward the west coast late in the afternoon. More showers could come on shore through the day on Sunday...but we can look more into this possibility as time goes by.
COASTAL CONCERN: Strong rip tides and high surf. Peak looks to max out on Sunday afternoon through most of Monday then be slow to wane into midweek. At time, no expecting any significant erosion for the surf.  Seas will once again pick up, maybe more so around Thursday. Erosion might be more of an issue which I'm sure the pros in the NWS are watching.

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