"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, August 19, 2010

Instant Replay of Yesterday?

RECAP: Activity generated yesterday very nicely (forecast wise) as far as locales and timing goes, but coverage was pretty low until very late. Things came together an hour or two later though than when I thought it would along the east side of the state for Osceola, Okeechobee, Orange, Seminole, Volusia, and Brevard Counties. Included is a radar image from around 10pm that roughly shows the areas that received a shower or thunderstorm and in some cases two shots of them between 9pm-midnight. Extreme E Osceola County, SE Orange, and N. Brevard seemed to be the most affected while I was still awake and monitoring. The only shower that I saw while awake that clearly moved off shore with any punch was near Daytona Beach, but from the beach lightning was easily visible from the storms that lined up along the east side of Osceola County northward along the Brevard/Orange Counties line. The Titusville, Port St. John, and Mims area got the rains very nicely too.   The late evening activity north of the Big Lake might have been aided by a very strong Lake Breeze that pushed NNE into at least southern Osceola County, which was likely aided by the mid level winds from the SSW which developed during the same time frame. This was easily discernible on visible satellite imagery late yesterday afternoon. The immediate coast could have received measurable rainfall amounts earlier had this occurred earlier in the day before the sea breeze had been so established, but such was not the case.
TODAY: Much like yesterday, but believe coverage might be less at least until very late. After that time...who knows to be honest. A lot will depend on what happens in the late afternoon inland as far as eastern portions are concerned (Eastern portions being the east halves of Okeechobee/Osceola/Orange/Seminole/Volusia/ and all of Brevard and Indian River Counties). The NWS Southern Regional Headquarters web server has been down since late yesterday, therefore I have not been able to access any data on line that resides via their server.
But the latest RUC/NAM and water vapor loop tell the tale pretty good. Looks a little drier out there aloft to start the day from yesterday, but then again it dried out a little yesterday afternoon and still storms popped after dark regardless. The Tampa sounding as of 8AM appears representative of the latest RUC run though, so we'll run with those. About the only difference today from yesterday is that SW-W winds in the lower-mid levels are already prevailing to start the day, whereas yesterday it took a good part of the afternoon for that direction to be established. Remember, yesterday these winds were paralleling the intracoastal at this time yesterday - not today though.
Sea breeze initiation will again be first to appear from south of Ft. Pierce and along the Cocoa Beach-Cape Canaveral coastline with all areas receiving hints of its onset by 1-1:30pm at latest.  Full sea breeze up down the Florida East Coast by 2pm.  The further south one goes the further inland the sea breeze will impinge upon. The further north one goes of the Cape the later it will develop. It doesn't appear the west coast sea breeze has yet begun as of this late morning writing...but my guess is that it will initiate very shortly as will the Lake O breeze machine. Activity along the east side of Lake O will have to get an early start today with the more westerly component to the winds aloft at this hour. If it doesn't happen by 1pm that area could be scoured out completely, but worth watching.  Actually, North of Vero along the intracoastal I'm highly doubtful of noon-2pm intracoastal waterway shower initiation today due to continued warm air aloft. About the only thing that might instigate a cloud line or perhaps a shower would be a remnant outflow boundary laying dormant over the barrier island region. But any develop here would be low end, uneventful. We pretty much knew right away once clouds started to form before noon yesterday that there would be no intracoastal activity early in the day. All one had to do was look at the clouds. The cumulus were very scrappy in nature and had little depth..and by the time any truly noticeable coverage could be obtained they were well west of the Indian River. I see a few scrappy Cu out my window overhead as I type...this happened yesterday. The sea breeze will follow soon.
With all said and done, warm and very muggy along the coast early before sea breeze initiation, but continued uncomfortable inland all day until more clouds and showers eventually develop. Once again expecting mostly late day storm initiation for Okeechobee, Osceola, Orange, Seminole, Volusia, and perhaps extreme western Brevard Counties. But not to discount that renegade shower or storm near the larger lakes just about anywhere. Storms also likely to go up along the west coast sea breeze over Lake County.  Activity this evening could make a better eastward penetration directly to the coast, from Vero Beach and points north, most likely though north of Cocoa Beach to Ormond Beach. As such, I'm looking toward the WSW-W horizon, especially toward the sunset time frame for showers or storms. Some mid-level clouds could make it to the coast anytime later this afternoon as remnant storm debris from activity that goes up over Central Portions of the inland counties drifts overhead.  Eventually, activity could again impinge toward the intracoastal as outflow boundaries from inland activity interacts with the shallow sea breeze frontal boundary which will weaken as we work later into the evening (due to loss of post-daytime max heating).  Overall coverage for Central Florida from coast to coast should be lower than what would normally expect this time of year.
One point to make. When it rains where you are it seems like it's raining 'everywhere' doesn't it? Rest assured, you could probably hop in your car and drive for ten minutes and be out of it.
FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY: What a quandary. The latest NAM is painting a significantly different picture from the GFS for this time frame. Particularly beginning Saturday. The past two runs have insisted on developing a fairly deep inverted trough and at times a closed low over/near the Bahamas and gradually shifting that feature west toward the peninsula, whereas the GFS maintains a ridge axis across south/central Florida (essentially the same pattern we've been in the past two days).  For now, I'm tossing the NAM out and riding with persistence which is what the GFS is hedging on. That being, little change overall from what we've been experiencing. Things change on a daily basis though, so we'll have to monitor to see if the 'hoped for' increase in rain chances for the east side of the state (namely, the A1A corridor) will improve notably by Saturday or Sunday as was alluded to yesterday.  We'll also watch to see if the NAM verifies. If it does, than our rain chances will decrease for the east side of the state considerably until maybe late Sunday or Monday.
EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK: Eventually, a frontal boundary and associated upper level trough will evolve along and east of the Mississippi River by Monday....and then work east and a bit further south. So far, it appears the surface  front will go stationary and get stretched in more of a NE-SW-W fashion across the mid-Atlantic region into north portions of Georgia-Alabama-Mississippi. Meanwhile, remnant TD5 aloft will barely be a discernible entity (if in fact, it is even viable to relate to that feature anymore).  But the GFS does indeed maintain redevelopment very close to the region that it made it on to the northern Gulf of Mexico Coastline along and just south of the frontal boundary by early next week. I'd say there's going to be lots to monitor over the Southeast states in coming days...but so far none of it appears as if it would have much of an impact on South and Central Florida. Closer proximity of the frontal boundary though should increase atmospheric moisture levels, abet in dipping the mid-upper level temperatures a bit (thus enhance instability) as well as enhance a greater push of storm activity toward the A1A corridor along the entire Florida East Coast during this time frame.
TROPICS: Nothing of interest yet. The "Models" (beginning to hate "that" word) are flakey at best, and all talk is strictly speculation. Surely someone is out there trying to get the 'one-upmanship' by forecasting what will happen 10 days from now so they can eventually proclaim "See, I told you that would happen!". So far, all speculators out there that I've seen have been incorrect anyway. It is totally unconstructive  and misleading to further exasperate what for now is a moot issue anyway.
HOWEVER! If one is to prepare for a tropical onslaught, now is the time. I noticed that Publix Supermarkets (a little plug for them) this week are putting special prices on weather radios, batteries, some canned goods like veggies and tuna, can openers, bottled water, and peanut butter. So if one wants to be prepared without the hassle of last minute preparation and fighting the hordes of scavengers as the store shelves empty, parking lots traffic jam, and irritable individuals mumbling 'rude utterances' (to put it nicely) under their breath in long waiting might be a good time to stock up. 

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