"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Low Rain Chances Central Portions Until Late Afternoon

RECAP: Pretty quiet day overall yesterday other than near Titusville, the Orlando area, and into Osceola County. There was an unofficial rain report of over 3" inches around Longwood but that seemed to be the highlight of activity.
NOW/SYNOPSIS: Low pressure near extreme S. Louisiana (remnant TD5) now over land and no longer a tropical weather threat other than enhanced afternoon thunderstorm activity for Southern and Central portions of Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi due to increased moisture and some veering of low level winds. Another very weak area of lower-mid level low pressure resides over the Western Bahamas and into South Florida. These two low pressure areas seemed to be weakly 'joined at the hip' across Central Florida and as a result surface and mid-level winds are very light. The morning KSC sounding taken at 6am is likely unrepresented for the most part of the air mass that will be over Central Florida late this afternoon into the evening hours and was disregarded for the most part. Water vapor loop showed a good slug of dry mid-upper level air has rotated into and across the region since day break. The seeming mid-level boundary across South Florida seems to be working slowly north though...and more moisture in the mid-levels should be returning to Central portions by 3-4pm  from the SSE-South. Additionally the low-mid level wind component which is now from the SSE-SE should veer ever so slightly to being from the S-SSW around sunset as the deeper moisture moves back in with this boundary with surface winds remaining generally from the SE-SSE.
TODAY: As a result (of the above stated) probably mostly dry most regions north of Vero for the early afternoon other than few renegade showers along the sea-breeze boundary north of Vero. Further south toward West Palm-Miami-Lake Okeechobee storms shouldn't have as much of a problem with getting started. In fact, the latest visible satellite animation I looked at indicated that showers and storms might already be beginning along the east coast down that way in the region closer to the mid-level boundary and thus greater moisture.
As we work into the mid-late afternoon mid-level winds to veer to S-SSW with an increase in moisture. By this time both the east and west coast sea breezes will have worked away from both coasts. Just exactly where they will meet is hard to say at this point...but as far as Central Florida is concerned any where along the west half of Osceola and Orange..and all of Lake County would be good bets for initial thunderstorm development sometime after 4:00pm. I am looking at the possibility of some early-mid evening activity beginning to flare up further east toward I-95 as outflow from storms further west coincides with the veering mid-level winds and increased moisture (although those will be very light and of not much influence).  Thus, we could end the day at sunset or shortly there after along the coast with some mid-level clouds and possibly remnant storm debris cloudiness (and a sprinkle)...particularly north of around Indian Harbor Beach along the coast.  As of the time of this writing, the best chance of 'near the coast'' activity for Central Florida appears most likely to be near Mims up toward Oakhill, through Daytona into Flagler County.
All in all, we could very well end the day much differently than from how it looks out there right now at noon. The big problem precluding development of greater storm coverage and intensity is persistent warm temperature ridging aloft which impedes the formation of stronger updrafts.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: Remnant TD 5 and any barely existing mid-level troughing from the Bahamas and South Florida will likely be displaced by ridging to build in from the Atlantic and across these same regions. Mid-level flow along Central and North portions of Florida will remain light but general be from the SW-W and eventually NW as we head into Friday. However, it's unlikely this will dominant the overall steering flow or direction of storm motion. Looking for a greater likelihood of late morning activity to develop along the intercostals waterways up and down the entire coast line though with ample moisture once again (other than how it is as of mid-morning today)...with light west winds in the mid-levels and little if any sea-breeze in the early morning, activity could get juiced up..particularly Wednesday and Thursday shortly before noon time. Once the sea breeze sets up most activity will probably be limited to the I-95 corridor as far as the Eastern portion of the state south of Daytona Beach is concerned. We'll have to see how things develop during the course of the next 24 hours.  Likewise, with a slightly later sea-breeze development the coast will warm into the low-mid 90s temperature wise before falling back to the 88-90 degree range east of US1 by mid-late afternoon. Inland portions outside of showers and storms will remain in the 90s.

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