"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, September 5, 2010

UPDATE: Florida Weather Today

NOW: Surface features remain status quo with frontal boundary generally along the Florida/Georgia border and surface ridge along the southern tip of Florida. Huge explosion of convection in the Eastern Gulf west of Tampa as can been seen on Tampa's latest radar. Surface trough or boundary appears to be emanating from this complex toward Port Charlotte which is moving little. Elsewhere, appears that a very weak area of surface low pressure is forming near Southern Polk/Osceola County which the RUC has picked up on nicely.
Convection from early this morning off Daytona - Cape continues moving NE and weakening. The outflow from this convection is easily visible on animated visible satellite imagery. It managed to push through  Brevard/Volusia into Seminole and Orange but is quickly becoming indiscernible as diurnal cumulus are filling the bridge it created. As a result, an early NE wind developed along the coast, but was very light. In other words, not the sea breeze. It lingers just west of I-95 in Orange/Seminole/Osceola Counties and may become a focal point for convection this afternoon.  Lowest dew point temperatures are generally found down the interior of the peninsula though. 15z KSC sounding came in and shows warming to the standard 10C temperature at 700mb we've been encountering the past month, whereas the 500mb temp has remained constant at somewhere between -7C to -8C. It was mentioned earlier that thickness values may increase since the earlier post, and this indeed has occurred per the increased 700mb temperature. An enhanced west coast sea breeze due to early convection off Naples is sending a weak outflow toward Polk County from the SW.
It currently appears that any chance of small hail would be restricted to interior Flagler/Volusia Counties where cooler air aloft likely resides, but still need to watch to see if those thickness values alluded to in the previous post shift south again later this afternoon. If they do the tiny hail threat could be extended into Seminole, Orange, and Northern Osceola Counties.  Fly in the ointment is the convection off Tampa. Cirrus clouds are already starting to encroach parts of Central Florida due to the storm tops reaching the jet stream level right as the best heating of the day begins. At this point in time, the longer one can indulge in hot afternoon temperatures...the more likely they are to get wet much later today into tonight. Storms along the east coast could be on-going or redevelop tonight...particularly over east Brevard County where they would be the last to see rain (if it occurs at all).
Elsewhere, assuming that other storms get going which still seems pretty will be a mix of where the high clouds are most prohibitive for storm formation with where they are more likely due to a late afternoon west meets east collision with lake breeze boundaries and additional outlfows.
Storms might have a hard time reaching the immediate East Coast north of Vero Beach initially...and be more likely to do so north of the Cape by no later than early evening (before sunset)...especially in Volusia and Flagler.
MONDAY (Labor Day): No change in previous thinking other than this. It clearly ain't summer out there anymore with the lower dew points. Point is, pre-noon time convection might have a harder time to get going near the Cape, especially IF there is late evening convection near the coast and residual clouds linger. We'll just have to see what happens this evening.

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