"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Chance of a Sprinkle East/Central Brevard , Otherwise Pleasant/Breezy

(Casting the sunrise fishing line in hopes of a catch -- he succeeded)
SYNOPSIS/LARGE SCALE OUTLOOK: Not much has changed since yesterday mornings post. And as such, pleasant weather prevails across all but extreme SE Florida this morning where low clouds linger. Low pressure prevails over the Bahamas and the East/Central Caribbean, across the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and further east. Trough extends from the far NE states down the offshore Eastern Seaboard to meet the area of low pressure just outlined. Low clouds along the extreme SE Florida coast are associated with the western fringes of the lower pressures. Meanwhile, high pressure bridges the gap over the entire Central U.S. where pleasant, but somewhat cold conditions, prevail (especially cool toward the upper Ohio Valley region). In the mid-levels in fact, gradient flow between the low pressure trough and this high pressure are gradually developing a northerly component flow that streams the whole way from NW Minnesota, across Florida, then south to near Panama (Central America)! This general pattern will persist for the next several days with no storm systems to impact any of Florida. Elsewhere, the Omega Block pattern will be at its peak perfect performance later today into tonight before the low over the upper/inland mid-Atlantic States lifts to the ENE then NE, while the low over the Desert southwest lifts north, weakens, and gets caught up in the upper level westerlies and like wise moves east in a much weakened state. The most exciting weather today will be over Arizona, Southern Nevada, and Southern and perhaps Central Utah before this low slowly moves out in a weakened state today. This region has been outlined by the Storm Prediction Center to be in a Slight Risk for severe storm today.
LOCALLY: As high pressure builds south and east this afternoon over the Plains and eventually the Deep South states, the pressure gradient between the trough aloft (and somewhat at the surface over the Gulf Stream waters) will tighten, producing some breezy conditions mainly from the Cape south to Miami (more so the further south one goes).  As noted yesterday, there are some patches of moisture developing within this squeeze play which are producing sporadic patches of stratocumulus clouds (one of which passed over East Central Florida around 9AM). More of this benign activity can be expected in unpredictable intervals this afternoon and this evening. Winds will back a little more to the NE by early afternoon along with tightening of the isobars to a mild degree, as such we could see breezy conditions along the coast by early afternoon and through the evening hours. Models have backed off on rain chances since last night, but consistently produce fluke shower chances over extreme East Brevard County as well as extreme East Dade County. Latest visible satellite animation does show some concentrated streams of stratocumulus heading toward the Cape at this hour, with perhaps some barely detectable raindrops within, but of no significance whatsoever.
TODAY: Becoming breezy along the coast with a few moments of stratocumulus clouds possibly giving some character to otherwise mostly clear skies. Very tempted to discard any chance of even a raindrop to fall given the shallow depth of atmospheric moisture aloft, as well as the lower dew points at the surface in which any rain that could fall from a denser, small cloud patch would evaporate before reaching soil. Melbourne radar is currently in "clear air mode" if that's any indication as to their concerns about rain falling. It appears the best chance of detectable rainfall would be within a narrow window between late afternoon to shortly after sunrise Wednesday, worst case. High temperatures in the low 80s. Otherwise, the gut says even that might be a stretch. No worries, but boating on the Atlantic today wouldn't be advised for other than the experienced due to rough, offshore waters and heightened winds and seas.
TOMORROW: Continued a bit breezy but no chance of rain. Perhaps a few clouds, but again, we'll probably have to look hard to find them.
THURSDAY: The only change for this period is an abatement of the wind under mostly clear skies.
FRIDAY-WEEKEND: Continued much the same with a teeny-tiny warm up of undescript nature. Will watch to see another, stronger influx of cool/dry air infiltrating down the peninsula during this time frame, with little affect other than to reinforce the current conditions of the past two days. But really, this period remains up for grabs in my mind as far as how much more easterly the wind will get, but rain wise...close to nada.
TROPICS: Their making sort of a big deal about the area designated 97L on The Weather Channel this morning, I think mainly because it's just something to talk about. Development of this system to depression or Otto Status remains sketchy, although the Hurricane Center has upped the chance of tropical development for this area to 40%. Regardless, it poses no threat to any landmass other than some rainy conditions over the Leeward Islands and eventually Puerto Rico late today. As noted yesterday, a piece of energy appears consistently now to break off this area and form another system south of Jamaica in days ahead. Models are coming close to agreement to this eventuality, with a system forming in the far SW Caribbean near Nicaragua. The GFS model is the sole model to have this system actually get picked up by the trough running down the U.S. east coast, and as such taking this potentially named system across Eastern Cuba and the Western Bahamas way beyond one week from now. Otherwise, the system just meanders way down there and either dissipates or moves in to Central America as hinted at in other models.

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