RECAP: Local Central Florida L.acks S.erious D.evelopment of any storm or even rain shower development. I think the weather God's are on 'happy pills', which is great for celebrating outside in early, fall-type weather. Such has been the case since the departure of the pre-mature birth of Tropical Storm Paula, and so the trend continues.
SYNOPSIS: Mid-upper level low pressure circulation referred to in the previous post was off the California coast yesterday just SW of San Francisco. This system continues to wind up and has dropped southward just offshore and down the coast, but now appears poised to shift toward land over the Northern Baja. Cut-offs are notorious for being difficult to forecast as far as how long the will persist within any one general region...so we approach the forecast for that the Desert SW region and Southern Plains with a swift, broad brush of relative uncertainty. The low appears that it will finally, but slowly, be caught up in the southern branch jet (which is weak) and shift across extreme Southern Arizona, Central New Mexico, and gradually lift and fill as it moves across the Southern Plains and finally skedaddles off to the ENE as the remnant circulation and energy (vorticity) gets wrapped around low pressure east of James Bay by the weekend. This system will leave widespread impacts in its wake, first across Southern (SE) California, much of Arizona, New Mexico, Southern (especially SW) Colorado, and then the Panhandle region of Texas/Oklahoma. We'll probably be hearing about severe thunderstorms and maybe a few tornadoes as a result anywhere in this zone through Friday before it begins to loose identity. It will be interesting to see what other types of weather erupts in the areas currently not forecast to receive any...especially over Oklahoma and Northern Texas.
Meanwhile, high pressure prevails over the Southeast States, the Gulf of Mexico, and Western Atlantic. The only noteworthy Item of Interest has been a weak, mid-level circulation off the Northern Tip of Yucatan which was forecast and finally analyzed late Sunday per model consensus. There is no active weather associated with this feature; however, it is now caught up in the weak southern branch jet/upper level flow and getting reading to pass over South and Central Florida as a remnant non-entity. It has managed to draw some moisture with it from the Caribbean, but in passing overhead it is essentially riding over high pressure at the surface (in other words, there's no depth to the system (and in calling it a 'system' anymore is a big stretch)). I've read no references to this item in forecast discussions from weather service offices, but I've been watching it for a number of days now in hopes that it would at least be a 'siggy' rainmaker for the every increasingly drought parched portions of Florida and/or other southeast states.
TODAY: Moisture at the mid-levels is being advected across Florida ahead of what remains of the aforementioned, dwindling circulation aloft and it's presence is clearly visible outside this morning (see included image). The moisture is just now arriving and will continue to flow overhead like a gentle stream through the day and tomorrow...particularly south of a Tampa Bay - Sebastian Inlet line. What remains of an elongated surface boundary well to the north will press south during the next 36 hours in a significantly dwindled state and interact with what remains of the moisture plume before it exits east of the state or full out dehydrates in place. As such, expect partly cloudy to cloudy skies early today...with maybe a light spinkle anywhere from near a Melbourne to South Tampa Bay line and points south. Per latest satellite trends (visible loops are only just not becoming viewable due to the early time of day), the clouds should break up by late morning to near noon time over portions of Central Florida, at least for a short time. However, daytime heating may work on the incoming moisture in such fashion that we would see an up-tick in cloud coverage once again by late afternoon, if not sooner. Temperatures will run a little cooler today by a couple of degrees due to the clouds, especially inland where the moderating affect of the sea-breeze is never as pronounced as it is along the coast. Come to think of it, the sea-breeze might altogether be hard pressed to form in earnest. As such, either way, the winds will be quite light with comfortable temperatures.
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY: Continued periods of partly cloudy to occasionally cloudy, especially over South East Florida south of Ft. Pierce. Best rain chances currently appear to be east of Lake Okeechobee. The clincher though in all reality, that light surface winds combined with abundant cloud coverage will offset sea breeze/lake breeze formation and/or strength and thus low-level convergence boundary interactions...that precipitation will be of stratiform/light nature for the most part where it does fall due to the deepest moisture being aloft. It looks like the best chance of anything truly measurable though will be ENE-SE of Lake Okeechobee and extreme South Florida from Naples-South Beach and points south. Temperatures running around normal or perhaps just below where clouds persist in depth and coverage the most.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: What's left of the mid-level moisture dissipates in form and function as high pressure approaches from the West (which will be south of the pesky low mentioned earlier). High pressure to move over head, thus precluding any frontal passages and/or moisture influxes. Thus, temperatures running around normal, or maybe even above that under sunny skies, especially by late Friday all regions of the state.
WEEKEND: LSD continues brewing. What the "high" (pressure) does is to continue the drought over East Central Florida. Note: South Florida is not in drought. Perhaps a 'trip' with a spiral design on the blot for the storm Gods is in order.
TROPICS: Just a few brief statements. The SW Caribbean is not yet to be forgotten, at least not in the world of models. Just to provide you with an idea of what is being depicted, the models show anything down there from nothing more than what is there now (unsettled weather) to development of a Cat 4 Hurricane within a week near Jamaica. I think both scenarios are unlikely. Hate to do it, but I'm riding down the bottom end of the curve and going with development of a least a depression with 2 days per observation of satellite loops and climatology (which of course, considers the time of year for this location where the weather is now occurring). This is in deviation from the assumption that the activity would simply be lost over Central America as written earlier, so anyone near the East Side of the Yucatan should keep at least one eye open to any future wild cards that might be dealt.
As far as the United States is concerned there does not appear there would ever be a threat no matter what happens down there, but I digress. Remember that cut off low approaching Southern California/Northern Baja? Need to keep watching what becomes of that. Should it slow down as often does with these systems we could all be thrown for another Hula Hoop. Those cut offs, especially in early spring (though) can be quite the thorn in the side of even the best forecasters. In the meantime though, at least for the next 72 hours..."round and round they (both go)...where they stop..nobody knows".
Elsewhere, Typhoon Megi is a very large storm and posing an entirely different forecast problem for anyone within a few hundred miles of Hong Kong. They have a good 2 days to narrow down the storm's eventual track and to prepare accordingly. Just how strong it will be and where it eventually makes a second landfall remains unknown.
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