(Image: Mr. Bill has the right idea, as was captured in the famous painting "The Scream". He was well known in small circles before his popularity emerged on SNL)
SYNOPSIS: Cold front passed over all of Florida on Friday and is now located well south of the state. High pressure quickly built across the peninsula in its wake and now encompasses all of the SE states. It appears to be centered over a broad area from N. Alabama east into W. North Carolina where areas of morning lows in the upper 30s are noted. Crestview, Florida is coming in at 38F, whereas Melbourne is almost a full 40 degrees warmer at 77F. Elsewhere, a very large low pressure system approaches the Pacific NW as another system across the Northern Plains becomes organized during the course of the next 24-48 hours.
TODAY: All of east central Florida will experience the affects of a slowly modifying air mass today as surface winds behind the aforementioned cold front have already swung around to the NE-ENE. These winds are escorting low level stratocumulus clouds to the coast prior to day break, and expect more of the same today as winds become a bit more easterly this afternoon. Any moisture in the atmospheric profile this afternoon will be limited to the lowest levels, but be provisional enough to perpetuate the potential for additional clouds this afternoon. Rainfall wise, the NAM model is showing showers this afternoon, but believe that given the shallow overall depth of moisture within the column will preclude anything behind a drop or two falling from aloft.
USAF THUNDERBIRD AIR SHOW (COCOA BEACH): Today and Sunday - Very pleasant temperatures and a nice breeze. Nothing to complain about in terms of the comfort zone; however, what about Air Show viewing?! Very touch and go. There will be breaks in the clouds, and I'll bet the breaks in the clouds will be favored as a rule although it could get iffy at times. No problem for ground displays though as far as rain is concerned. It'll all be in the timing, which could be aggravating for those that run the mill in having to anticipate any unforeseen cloud patches on an hourly basis for the schedule air show evenets. In other words, no guarantees for any one particular display. Best bet though, bet there (if one so opts), or be square.
Coastal temperature this afternoon in the low 80s.
MONDAY/TUESDAY: Well, so much for a Monday launch forecast. Last I looked STS-133 has been delayed 24 hours due to some functional technicalities of minor infraction. As such, do believe it will be a go on Tuesday. Have to say though, one wonders if perhaps a little politicking is involved to sway Air Show watchers to stay another today and thus contribute to the financial money pot of local merchants and related accommodations.
But what about the weather for the launch by then? I've head it said that 'six is one half dozen of the other'. My gut says if there's going to be any issues, they will be due to some clouds. Have to see if what comes around, goes around on Tuesday. Maybe Mother Nature will get the last laugh by having prime weather on Monday, only to have yet clouds on Tuesday thus causing further flight delays.
TROPICS: Not going into too much elaboration yet as far as Tropical Storm Tomas or now Hurricane Shary is concerned. Here's some latest information and a few thoughts.
As of 5Am Tomas was located approximately 70 NM east of St. Vincent, moving WNW at 15 mph. Satellite interpretation over night shows continuing organization, and I bet we'll have a hurricane if not in the next tropical update, the one after that. Tomas is being steered by both the high pressure that is affecting our weather locally over Florida as it merges with another area further east into the SW Atlantic Ocean. These merging forces will be ticket for Tomas to continue its trek through the SW Caribbean through Wednesday as it now appears. Tomas is expect to strengthen to a least at Cat-3 storm. Just exactly when / where that will occur is very difficult to ascertain, as is the nature of intensity forecasting.
Will Tomas impact Florida directly? At this point the answer is no. But there is some cause for hair twisting and navel picking (be that one's favored mode of operandi (?)). Point is, the huge low pressure area now approaching the Pacific NW is expected to combine with another low which will form in association with the system just now getting it's act together over the Northern Plains. In fact, and in somewhat unusual fashion, a mid-upper level level pressure system my form close to the SE coast of Texas by mid-week. This is what the models are foreseeing. Just exactly how far south and east this all occurs will be the clincher for Tomas's future track. As it stands now, Tomas will bet picked up by this yet to develop situation and consequently be transported off the NE after making a close, if not direct, pass at Jamaica.
I have noted that initially the GFS model formed this low much further east though...and in subsequent runs as shifted it further west and south. Much more time to see what transpires in the meantime, but at this point I'll leave it to say that it would be unwise to target any particular models' resolution for the eventual turn of events being extrapolated. Definitely a watcher for Cuba, Jamaica, the Dominican Republic, and Souther Bahamas though at this point.
Hurricane Shary, in the meantime, has already made its closest passing threat to Bermuda and is rapidly exiting stage left. Within 48 hours Shary will be post-extratropical and pose no threat other than to fishing lanes, hence it will remain a "Fish Storm".
RECORD: In lieu of typing out a dissertation about the record monthly dry spell at hand, I've just noticed that the NWS Melbourne, FL has already beat me to the punch. Therefore, I'm just going to copy and paste their nicely terse summarization. But note, these are for extended dry spells. The record has been broke for October, seeing as how there has been only a trace at the Melbourne recording locale this month:
ORLANDO
RANK #DAYS END DATE
1 37 5/12/1971
2 36 5/18/1970
3 35 12/7/1967
4 33 1/25/1990
5 32 6/10/2000, 5/28/1965, 3/11/1951
CURRENT CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION (THROUGH
10/29/10): 31
MELBOURNE
RANK #DAYS END DATE
1 46 1/3/1969
2 38 12/10/1967, 3/13/1961
4 37 5/12/1971
5 34 12/27/1961
CURRENT CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION (THROUGH
10/29/10): 30
NOTE: A TRACE OF RAIN DOES NOT COUNT AS MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
ORLANDO AND MELBOURNE WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE NO MEASURABLE RAIN
FOR OCTOBER...AN ALL TIME RECORD FOR THE MONTH. FURTHER
INFORMATION CONCERNING A RECORD DRY MONTH OF OCTOBER ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BE ISSUED AFTER THE END OF THE MONTH.
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