"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Take a Hike, Old Man Winter!

Old man winter came in with a blast.
Oh, how I wish he...
Were a thing of the past!

Every time I open the door -
Snow, sleet, wind, rush in
They're predicting more!

We crawl under the covers
And hide our heads.
Like Rip Van Winkle, I hibernate and stay in bed.

(Author: Nancy Hobock...words modified by self a bit, but it was her idea)

TODAY: "One more day of cold, me thinks in my head...covers are warm, brain is dead" is a lot of the vegetation across North and Central Florida. All one has to do is take a drive west of US1 toward I95 to see the effect the cold has already had on this part of the state, and after the past few days I hate to see what the ramifications of freezing temperatures will be by this time next week and beyond. But the "Old Man" is heading for the retirement home soon as far as Florida is concerned (which now appears is currently located over the Desert SW toward Colorado where the next cold snap and/or big snow is poised).

Locally, warm up has already began to a small (or even a few) degrees of Fahrenheit for Florida, at least as far as the immediate east coast was concerned this morning. As expected, widespread freezing temperatures were found in abundance all areas with record low temperatures reported at Daytona, Orlando, Melbourne, and Vero Beach (just to name a few) for the date. But as noted yesterday, the area along the A1A corridor was warmer than on Monday morning minus the direct advection of cold air to those along and east of A1A. There was also frost observed in many spots.

Currently, high pressure centered near Northern Alabama and Mississippi is sinking south and a bit east toward the Florida Panhandle and the mouth of the Mississippi this afternoon under abundantly clear skies. Temperatures are warming into the low to mid 50s now...with some upper 50s possible from a line running south of a Melbourne to Sarasota line, but do believe that mid-50s will be the dominant temperature regime this afternoon for all of the immediate Central Florida region. Upper 50s and lower to even mid-60s will be the rule south of this line the closer to the Keys one gets.

TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY: If last night wasn't already a nearly classic night for radiational cooling and cold air drainage flow, then tonight will be. Must admit, the wind early last evening went pretty darned close to near calm shortly after sunset which set the scene for the widespread cold air planted at ground level this morning earlier than I had expected (by 24 hours)...the pattern was established early in the evening and will already be in place (as it is right now while typing) when the sun sets this evening as the high pressure sinks south of the Panhandle toward Central Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with likely a secondary mesoscale high pressure bubble centered over Lake Okeechobee by sunrise, Wednesday.

WEDNESDAY MORNING: Believe that freezing level temperatures will be restricted to those west of the Indian River from Fort Pierce north through Brevard County, but widespread frost will again be found over a broader expanse in the morning right at sunrise almost anywhere. It was 33F degrees at my place in Cape Canaveral this morning with similar readings around the Canaveral AFS just to the north and warmer further south toward Patrick AFB, but the freezing mark was not far away just to the west. Freezing temperatures will again be felt in the morning where it matters most, the agricultural belt. Morning lows along A1A will be about 3-5 degrees warmer than what was felt this morning.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: High pressure at the surface will be over head all day, and with a slightly warmer start to the day, especially along the coast, the afternoon will follow suit with highs more assuredly reaching 60F from Cape Canaveral west to Tampa but remain in the upper 50s further north. Low to mid 60s further south. Skies will remain nearly clear or close enough. Might begin to be worth watch some stratocumulus clouds try to advect onshore from near West Palm to Miami by afternoon though, as winds will begin to gain a 'semblance of onshore' component in the afternoon, but believe for the most part that even if they do manageto materialize, given how dry the air will be for starters, they will not pose a problem.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: This is the period when the true "snap" will occur as far as Old Man Winter is concerned. It was nice knowing you old man, but you couldn't leave soon enough! Overnight lows will be remarkably warmer Thursday morning, most notably along the immediate east coast where overnight temperatures will only slowly fall during the duration of the overnight hours as a light onshore component wind forms (they may even level off after 4 or 5AM). Just light enough to keep the first mile or so hugging the coast warmer than inland counterparts, but everyone will be warmer no matter how we look at it. Lows in mid 50s with mid 40s well inland.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND: A southeasterly wind will be the dominant feature as high pressure continues to move further east at the surface, while at the mid levels it remains anchored over the far Southeastern U.S. for a couple of days. Warmer nights and days in store. By New Year's Eve and Day the A1A corridor could be feeling lows in the low 60s with highs in the low 70s. The models are insisting on the immediate east coast from Cape Canaveral south to be the warmest during the overnights for many days to come under the mainly SE wind regime which makes sense, but just how warm the afternoons will be in these same locations remains a bit muddled (in my mind only apparently). Numerical guidance, for example, is promoting mid to upper 70 degree readings for the Melbourne area by next weekend which probably isn't beyond sound reasoning. It's the folks that want to go to the beach during the warm up that might be a tad surprised once they get within a few blocks of the water's edge. Do believe that the coolest official reporting spot by late in the week into next weekend for East Central and East South Florida will end up being Patrick Air Force Base, since they are the closest one to the ocean (not counting the mesonet stations near Canaveral Air Force station just to the north of the Port). I'm willing to give a little leeway though, so opposed to the 67-69F degree high temperatures for the area from Satellite Beach to inhabited Port Canaveral let's give it a 72F for "Coconuts on the Beach" for starters and see what materializes.

I haven't gone into much concerning sky conditions on this post as temperatures have been the focus the past several days. Surely, by Friday clouds in some form or another will become a point of interest as temperatures will be a non-issue and the atmosphere begins to moisten back up. We'll leave that for a later point in time as this period draws nigh.

More focused on getting the winter clothing back on the hangers and in the closet where it belongs. Now where did I put the shorts?!!! Ah yes, they await on the chair in the bedroom, waiting to be used again. Come this time tomorrow, it's shorts ALL THE WAY, BABY!

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