"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, January 14, 2011

"The Weather Critic Within" - Weather or Not

Images: 7pm temperatures tonight and 7am NEXT Friday morning at a glance. Not much change in this department as a gradual warming trend begins today through Tuesday from Florida to California.

SYNOPSIS: High pressure from the SE Texas Coast toward Louisiana is building ENE'ward across all of the Deep South today and this trend will continue through the weekend as it expands in areal coverage into the mid-Atlantic by next week. Warmest locales in days to come will be Central and South Florida, the northern Gulf of Mexico's southern border state regions (near I-10), much of Texas west to Southern California and up the California coastline to Oregon/Washington coasts.

RECAP: In a snap the cold air event ended overnight from Daytona south to Miami east of I-95 with the coldest air over North Florida south to Okeechobee (the interior) and over toward Punta Gorda. Remember this thermal regime, as it may very well hold fast in varying degrees for the next 7-10 days. Daytona registered a record low high temperature for the date yesterday of 47F, not surprising considering how 'cool' the intra-coastal of Brevard was yesterday. Temperature bottomed out in Cape Canaveral about 2 hours after sunset and held steady the remainder of the overnight hours, indicative that a change was in the offering for most of Brevard. High and mid-level clouds over South Florida (once again as was the case the night before) streamed over that region, holding temperatures up a bit overnight there.

TODAY-WEEKEND: High pressure at the surface will expand east and north from the southern Mississippi River Valley region and across the Deep South with the axis running initially over Central Georgia toward the FL/GA border at times in the low levels. Northerly winds near noon time veering to NNE-NE and eventually ENE and weakening through tomorrow as the axis settles in, relaxing the pressure gradient. Warmest overnights from Port Canaveral south to Miami and the Keys east of I-95 with ultimately the warmest from West Palm and south closer to the Gulf Stream's warm water influence. Coolest next few mornings remains well to the west and north of Brevard County, edging the Orlando area and over/southwest toward Sarasota. Morning lows in the low-mid 50s (coastal) with a gradual increase to mid-upper 50s; highs in the low-mid 60s North, mid-upper 60s South, warming to upper 60s (all) and some low 70s further south toward Miami before the weekend is over. Coolest mornings/warmest afternoons inland over the weekend with the area from West Palm toward Naples pretty much coming out even across the boards (warmest spot SW Florida near Naples). Coolest afternoons along A1A from SR 520 to Jacksonville.

No rain chances noted, although the North American Model is showing shower chances in the warmest area outlined above (from the 'Port of Canaveral' to the 'Port of Miami') beginning overnight tonight. Believe this is over done though, and will leave this as an indicator of periodic greater enhancement (vertical depth) of stratocumulus clouds instead.

MONDAY-THURSDAY: Will generalize this time frame since there will be an opportunity for rain chances in the late-day Monday through Wednesday (at least) time frame. The trend has been to temper down coverage of actual rainfall as well as longevity, but it's too soon to tell if this is a trend or fluke. Outside of the rain chances, though, continuous mild/near normal or a few degrees below normal temperatures at times is the trend for everyone. Best chance for rain appears to be afternoon Monday through Tuesday, so obviously some fine tuning is required for a period that is still a good 3-4 days away. During late weekend a short wave trough riding across the ridge axis may result in a more northerly wind component for 12 hours or so and a minor temperature fluctuation accompanied by more clouds from the trend, but this impulse, should it occur, will have little other affects....and will likely occur unbeknowst to anyone outside of the "Weather Critics".

Rain chances will be associated with a cold front, or two of them, which will cross the state during mid-week in similar fashion to our last event. The first front bringing the rain chances then clearing out the mid-level, rain inducing moisture, with the second front bringing the more pronounced drier/colder air mass. The difference this time is that there will not be a surface low over the Northern Gulf traversing North Florida, but rather much further north. Correspondingly, all the thermodynamics and strong wind profiles ( and colder/drier air associated with ) stays further north as well. Looks like a Northern Plains to the Great Lakes winter to me for the next 5 days.

Side note: Thinking of taking up a new career. We have Food Critics, Movie Critics, Book Critics, Media Critics, Politically Based Critics ad-naseum...why not a Weather Critic!?

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