"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Thursday, March 31, 2011

STATUS: Severe Threat Continues For Central Florida

Severe Threat Continues , Particularly for a line running north of Sebastian Inlet over to Sarastoa
BRIEF STATUS UPDATE POST LATE THIS MORNING: Latest surface analysis and time lapse loops of actual observations indicate that a region of 70F degree dewpoint air is racing northward from the region shown along the redline above (over South Florida) to its current location shown above as well. The leading edge of this moisture rich air mass of pink colors is forecast by the RUC model to reach the Beachline within the next two hours.

Additionally, although surface based instablity over East Central is weak at the moment, there is still plenty of Multi-layer convective available potential energy aloft combining with strong helicity and shearing winds along an axis running along  where the black line is drawn. This moist air is forecast to meet the sheared environment in the next 60-100 minutes at the same time that stronger jet stream level winds will be crossing North Florida.

Surface observations also indicate that perhaps a weak surface low circulation had developed over Polk County, while a secondary one seems to be forming over Eastern Osceola County. Winds have already backed at the surface along the coast of Brevard County in response to these developments. The RUC model is indicating that further development is expected through 1pm. A funnel cloud (perhaps tornado) was photographed over Polk County earlier this morning near the surface low circulation.

NET EFFECT?: It remains possible for stronger activity to develop as we approach 12 noon over all of Central Florida, namely 50 miles either side of  of the black line drawn above. This activity will push rapidly toward the east coast through 1-2pm.

It appears that the conditions favorable for severe activity will lessen a bit after 1-2pm, but it will remain unstable for further rainshowers and some storms through sunset over North Central Florida. The actual cold front is not forecast to clear dead Central Florida until around 6-7AM Friday morning, so more rains could be expected until that time. The intensity of which is too soon to determine, although guidance leads one to believe it will not be as strong as what is currently or forecast to occur in the next 1-3 hours.

Rain is not indicated for any of South Florida until much later tonight through tomorrow morning, where some strong thunderstorms could occur into the Keys over all of the Southern 1/3 of the state.

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