Tornado Watch In Effect North Florida -Severe Thunderstorm Watch Likely Central

Anticipate a severe storm watch will be issued as shown. This image was created at 4am

COLD FRONT will move into Central Florida and begin to become more aligned from ENE-WSW and almost E-W with time this afternoon. The front will be location from near Titusville to South Tampa Bay and make little if any further southward motion this afternoon until after 4pm.


During this time...some forecast values show respectable Bulk Shear, CAPE in the 1000-1400J/KG range, and Lifted Indexes of -4 to -8C accompanied by somewhat unusually cold temperature aloft. In other words, the atmosphere will be moderately unstable all through the early afternoon over Central Florida. Also this area will be in an area of upper level diffluent flow at the jet stream level coincident with the sub tropical jet over South Florida and the mean continental polar jet exiting Northeast Florida, placing Central in the Left Exit region of the departing continental jet stream streak of higher winds aloft
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All of these factors combined will promote vertical upward reaching storm tops during the first portion of the day. Expect a lot of lightning, strong wind gusts over 58mph, and possibly some small, non-severe sized hail in the strongest of storms. Secure ALL loose objects now such as lawn or pool furniture, and get chores down early, to avoid the rains.  Some localized urban nuisance flooding could also occur in those areas you know are prone to doing so.

Forecasts, and actual observations since this image was saved, are showing pockets of low level shear and winds forming along and axis running from Tampa bay to Port Canaveral. Much more now that what this image shows..'THE GREAT AND MAGIC DIVIDING LINE!" Of North Central and South Central Florida

Bulk shear from the surface to about 10,000 Ft  we can see is laid out along and north of the line from Tampa to Port Canaveral. This is not expected to change in location this afternoon...only weaken with time.

The Energy Helicity Index at 1pm from the Ground to 3000 KM will be maximized this afternoon along the East Coast of Brevard through Martin Counties  where storm relative inflow at 2000 ft is forecast to remain from the ESE-SE. We see the front at 2pm only as far south as Daytona Beach

 In short, we can expect a rain day across all of Central Florida once the rain at any one location begins,. Heaviest rainfall could be near Tampa and near Central Brevard  south to Indian River County. 


Strongest storms will occur along the leading edge of the first storms, however additional lightning storms could become strong to marginally severe through the early afternoon hours until the strong upper levels wind lift east and north...and away from Central Florida


Once these winds pull out, the front will be permitted to drop south through South Florida during the late night hours. It appears the winds will have entirely exited the East Coast right over the Cocoa Beach area late in the afternoon...these may be accompanied by one last gasp heavy rain shower.


Rains will end from West to East...last leaving the East coast near or shortly after sunset all areas.


A Week of Very Pleasant Weather will follow, so hold tight. After today we're gold for quite some time...with a warming trend working into the week end. It will truly feel like Spring by early next week. FLORIDA spring that is.