"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, June 4, 2011

Tropical Entity in the SW Caribbean/High Pressure Reduce Rain Chances

Salt River Canyon, Arizona. Author drove through this region on Friday taking in the sites, after contending with very smoky conditions the day before brought about by a large 50K acre fire in Southern Arizona

TODAY/SUNDAY: Not much change with on-shore flow and little to none in sea breeze convergence boundaries to account for any chances of thunderstorms over the peninsula. A small chance exists along I-10 in the Panhandle.

MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME: A weak low pressure area is still being forecast by the GFS model last night to form off the Carolina's as surface high pressure relaxes. The main net effect will be to delay the east coast sea breeze at least one of these days, resulting in very warm late morning to early afternoon temperatures at the beaches with a slight increase in moisture (humidity).  It appears the best chance of rain still appears will occur over North Central and North Florida. ...There exists a chance (albeit smaller) as far south as the Beachline by early to mid-evening Monday night going into Tuesday.

WEDNESDAY: Better chance for showers and thunder toward the west half of the state as the onshore flow pattern at the low-mid levels resumes control.  

TROPICS: A broad area of low pressure continues in the SW Caribbean. The main threat at this time would be flash flooding in the area around Jamaica.  Models fluctuate vastly on the potential future development of a more organized low pressure system (depression/tropical storm), as well as the eventual forward motion that, should one develop, it would take.  Given the high degree of uncertainty, and the zero threat to Florida for at least 8 days, further elaboration on this area is not necessary at this time.

WEATHER AHEAD: Until the synoptic scale pattern which is maintaining the uncertainty in the tropical weather forecast, so will the pattern over Florida remain a bit uncertain in the extended time frame. Unlike what was considered yesterday regarding the onset of the wet, thunderstorm could be next weekend or the weekend after that (or some time in between), before we see a change in the pattern for sure.

TOO SOON TO THINK ABOUT TROPICAL WEATHER THREATS?: In a few days, a post will be made addressing hurricane preparedness. In this regard, ask yourself: If you live on a barrier island or within a few miles of the coast, what would it take for you to leave the area? Do you leave whenever an evacuation 'mandate' is in place, or stay?  Consider preparations either way, and keep in mind: 1) no electricity for days on end: erstwhile mosquitoes, heat, humidity, closed businesses, no gas, etc...should one stay even if not effected by anything other than inconvenience and discomfort. Do you have a pet? Consider their needs. Gas? Food supplies? A generator for simpler electrical needs? Boarding for windows?  If you leave, where will you go for that matter?!! With important papers/records?  A preparedness kit and a checklist both will greatly lead you and your family into the Tropical Storm Season a bit less ill at ease if nothing else. When an evacuation is in place for your area, the utmost safe assured thing to do is heed the broadcast with your checklist in tow.

When evacuation is mandated, HEAD FOR THE HILLS as these folks did during Hurricane Frances (below):

Higher ground is your safest option

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