"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, July 15, 2011

More Rain and Thunder Than Yesterday Possible Anywhere

At Sunset, Children Play Ball in the Streets of Cape Canaveral while an outflow of wind from a storm along I-95 presses east across the Banana River toward the coastline and A1A

TODAY: Today looks much like yesterday to some degree, but in others it is QUITE different.
1) The surface trough of low pressure has shifted south from Central Georgia Yesterday
2) There is a new trough located off the Florida Coast. Storms have been active along that boundary, and as of this writing have sent out an Outflow boundary toward the coast. The question is, how far East will it make it, and it is stalls somewhere offshore, what kind if any impact would it have to the weather across East Florida today, mainly along and east of I-95? It could make it significantly nicer later today, or much more rainy.
I'll show you the images and a quick write up about that feature
3) The atmosphere started out uncapped and unstable right off the bat, as well as very moist. Showers and some thunder are marching eastward across the NW 1/2 of the state, and one managed to from in Southern Brevard County last hour. Cumulus clouds are also making it over the Barrier Islands and so far winds are light and variable, although becoming a bit easterly. I"m not so sure if a true East Coast Sea-breeze will manifest with great strength, with the area of storms further offshore. could be magnified later today, especially if that out flow makes it in around 4 or 4:30pm as timing would place it to be.
4) Some thin cirrus clouds are passing over and creating spottier pockets when showers cannot form in their presence. How much more cirrus will have moved into the areas over South Central and South Florida later today? So far, I'm assuming not a whole lot more than is currently present. If it gets much thicker though, rain chances go way down.

SET UP OVER FLORIDA: There are the two boundaries mentioned above. Not sure what kind of boundary you'd call these, so I drew a red cold front and blue warm front off shore moving the wrong way. So far, the only affect these boundaries have is to disrupt the normal wind flows.  The stronger west to east push is along and north of the Green Line, and close to nil or much less further south. Most activity here will be sea breeze/Lake Breeze driven and later in the day than north of the Green Line other than in some isolated pockets.

The greatest concentration of rainfall through most of the day will be north and along the red boundary into the panhandle. Late today, this better concentration could be over South Central and into South Florida where it will take longer for Water driven wind boundaries to establish, generate storms, and have those collapse to create more boundaries. A boundary driven day, like any other summer day.  

THIS IS VALID FOR THE PERIOD FROM 4:30PM and BEYOND until whenever the activity ends. I'm not so sure it will end all so soon tonight. Any lingering boundaries that are near areas that were not rain on heavily earlier in the afternoon could re-ignite any time through around 2AM.  
SATURDAY: GOOD QUESTION: Could there be showers very close to A1A from Daytona to Ft. Pierce, even before sunrise? The GFS has implied that to be the case for two days... for now, just playing it by ear and will assume a variation of today to play it conservative.


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