"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, August 5, 2011

Friendly Emily Not Such a Big Scare Afterall

EMILY to mostly play peek-a-BOO with Florida and the Bahamas as the storm
becomes divided in the mid-levels with little to no closed surface circulation. Lets face it, Emily died in the Tropical Storm graveyard of the Dominican Republic...Rest in Peace...

EMILY: Going to discuss the remnant lows of Emily..rather troughs so far...of Tropical Storm Emily because this synoptic scale feature will affect the weather over Florida through Mid-Day Sunday (at least).  Current, only a mid-level circulation can be located at the based of a mid-level trough which extend well to the NE of Cuba east of the Bahamas. The Portion very near Cuba might creep north a bit more, but will likely wash out due to shear further north. The spooky area off toward the Bahamas is the only saving grace for the storm to regenerate I'd think, but even if it did it would be nothing more than a Sub-tropical, ghostly low as it meets up with a frontal boundary off the U.S. East Coast. Zombie Emily is over Cuba.

This is the 850mb RUC forecast for 2pm can see it has two closed areas..but that are actually open. The one over Cuba might drift WSW while the other should pivot off the the North to NNE. Note those winds of 30 KTS shown. These are expected to continue..perhaps up to storm strength at the lower levels, but there is never a truly closed circulation. For that, I suspect the winds are being created by pressure gradient winds between the Trough of Emily and strong, summer time high pressure over the Atlantic.  If it can organize, it would be with help of a front off the U.S. East Coast. Thus, no threat to the U.S....and any re-naming will be at the jurisdiction of the Hurricane Center for whatever reason.

Here's is one reason why I would not expect the storm to develop. Wind shear. Although there is very little to no shear in the storms current location, there is shear everywhere else.

Only 5 knts of shear in current location but 20 to 30iknts everywhere else...Not that we will likely see a flare up of convection off to the East of the Bahamas due to wind shear/pressure gradient winds (for stronger winds) out there..but it should not be a full tropical nature, nor completely closed.
ON TO BIGGER AND BETTER THINGS: Well, not necessarily for a few days still. Not much has really changed over Florida other than the perfect summer weather we have had lately. It's not summer unless you can break into perspiration while going outside in the mid-afternoon to check the mail. And that will be the case the next few days ahead. 

Overall, Emily's remains will haunt only as a barely detectable, friendly entity... not seeing a big surge in moisture except maybe the SE Coast to East Central Florida heading into later Saturday...but in general, nothing more than a good, moist, summer day.  It will not be until at least mid-day Sunday that the effects of the system should start to move out so that things can get back to a variation of 'normal'.  

TODAY: Showers and some thunder as shown, mostly late today. Shower activity should be very isolated until after 4pm when they might increase in number, with a mix of some thunder thrown in.

There really is nothing special to see here other than to note Southeast Florida. There is the remote chance that showers and maybe some thunder could move into SE Florida toward or after dark through 11pm tonight. Just a gander on that one. Otherwise, it should remain farily dry today down there.  The main players today will be the East Coast sea breeze and the Lake Okeechobee breeze...but for the most part expecting most storms to be over Polk and Lake Counties...Pinellas and Hillsborough.

SATURDAY should be close to the same...although this day and SUNDAY both are dependent upon what, Emily..does. No big wash outs expected but the chance of thunder increases toward Central and East Florida later in the afternoon.

MONDAY/TUESDAY: Looks like both of these days will favor the far East side of the state for showers. It will be very warm at the beach-side, east of I-95 with the potential for no sea breeze on one or both of these days. If that is the case on one or both days, most precipitation might be only rain showers rather than thunder over land..maybe becoming thunderstorms off shore.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: These might be the days for strong storms over the interior working toward the east coast later in the day with some cooler air aloft. Beyond Thursday things get very fuzzy, although the GFS continues to show rain chances...the wind fields look very suspicious in the we'll have to wait and see what will come out of this. I think that for the time being official outlets are just riding on climatology and persistence of the previous days for now..due to how far away Thursday is from today. Thus, the better chances of rain continue to be broadcast the past, the GFS has been becoming very sketchy around the 13th or it does look like sometime around next Sunday the rain chances might go down..pending arrival of either another continental U.S. trough for more thunderstorms OR..the arrival of a tropical wave..which at this point is looking unlikely due to the current dry air well west of the next wave of the charts coming off of Africa.

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