"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, October 9, 2011

Watching Weather Conditions For This Afternoon Central/North Central Florida

There is a large 'blob' of convection off the East Coast of South Central Florida at noon. It appears to be located/resultant from upper level divergence and low level convergence at the negative tilted base of the 200mb (40,000 ft) jet stream flow. Other convection along the SW Coast of Florida seems to be associated with a 500mb low within this trough.
There lies the 'potential' for the branch flow in yellow to weaken and/or cut off, at which point convection along the Florida east coast could stream inland. Mainly after 2pm. The latest 18 hour RUC simulated radar animation is showing showers with embedded thunder to stream in mainly near the north end of the CAPE, well inland to the west coast from that point as the flow around the low off the SW coast takes over the steering currents.
The latest HRRR model (which runs several hours slow unfortunately) is bringing 'some' activity on shore, to lesser extent, but stronger from Indian River County and north, with ONE strong storm moving across Central to North Central Brevard late in the afternoon.
Thus, although little to no rain is occurring at this time..or is mostly moving out, this could be because the low off the SW coast is wrapping up (closing).
Heating is occurring in cloud breaks for the time being, but some high clouds are working toward the East coast near Brevard.
Latest water vapor animated loops show much of the state is being 'dry slotted', however, SPC Mesoscale analysis shows that there is ample moisture in the convective layers between the Lifted condensation level and the level of free convection.  A pseudo warm front is moving slowly up the state from far south Florida at noon, and winds at the surface are responding to the tightening pressure well as backing a bit more toward the NE in Northern Brevard (for example). Winds aloft below that level are more from the East to ESE.
Any severe weather to occur will likely happen in a very restricted area (if it does at all) right ahead to right behind the surface boundary.
This is just a 'precautionary' post. The situation would be much more clear if we were dealing with a strictly tropical or strictly non-tropical situation, but this one is neither. Models did not handle the precipitation fields well in regard to where the heaviest rains would occur for this event, but did handle the latitude at which they would. Osceola County likely owns the highest rainfall totals. For this reason, even today's events if they occur at all are highly questionable.
Another area to watch is interior SW Florida.

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