"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, November 2, 2011

Inconsequential Sprinkles Possible at Coast, Otherwise PleasantEE

East to ENE winds today at 10-18mph with a few higher gusts are possible until right after sunset. A few sprinkles could eke to the coast before drying out shortly after reaching the drier air over land west of US1.

Latest temperature plot forecast for early today with the cold front to approach Florida drawn in. The white along the east coast is where a sprinkle or enhanced periods of cloudiness could occur at any time and point before dark. Winds behind this front in portions of Southern Nebraska, West Kansas, and into Western Oklahoma and eventually NW Texas are gusting between 32-45mph with temperatures behind the front in the mid  30Fs. Ahead of the front temperatures are 15-20 degrees warmer with equally as strong winds from the opposite direction. Two locations in Nebraska were reporting a thunderstorm with temperatures of 40F and 34F respectively. Quite the dynamic little system for sure. Have no fear, this front will have minimal impact to Florida.
TODAY: High pressure centered over Eastern Virginia is expanding both up and down the entire east coast this afternoon in the wake of the low departing to well off shore the DEL-MAR-VA  region. It cannot even be seen in the above image. The recent snows in New England appear to be abetting development of this high northward per the cold surface temperatures in the NE states where it recently snowed over the weekend. Otherwise, greater expansion of the high pressure through Florida will slowly reduce the pressure gradient and also allow winds to become more ENE to E tonight. Outside of a quickly moving sprinkle at the immediate coast (don't blink or you'll miss it north of Ft. Pierce) other areas will be partly cloudy this afternoon with pancake stratocumulus clouds with a few low topped cumulus. Highs in the lower 70Fs far North increasing to the mid-upper 70Fs Central (with a few near 80F) and upper 70Fs to lower 80Fs South.

TONIGHT: Decreasing clouds and winds after sunset with any chance of a sprinkle removed as winds die down. Overnight lows similar to what was experienced this morning wherever you were, although coastal lows from US1 to A1A along the entire east coast might be a few degrees cooler due to less influence of the east winds blowing across the low-upper 70Fs ocean temperatures.

THURSDAY: Little overall change from today with winds quite light from the East becoming SE-SSE eventually after dark. No showers and clear to partly cloudy by early afternoon.

FRIDAY: Possibly cooler along the immediate east coast with a SW wind of 12-18 mph after sunrise preceding a cold front which by sunrise will be cutting through the Big Bend region. Cooler temperatures near the coast since the sea winds will be absent and be replaced by a land breeze. The front will be accompanied by a band of sprinkles/clouds but will likely dissipate with those with rising of the sun. Cold frontal passage across Central appears will be from late morning the mid-afternoon and be accompanied by a band of clouds and a wind shift to the west. The front will finally clear Eastern Dade shortly after sunset. Models are agreeing on a slightly faster frontal passage than previous runs, thus afternoon highs on Friday appear to be limited to the mid-upper 70Fs Central and cooler to the north, but warmer over South Central and South Florida with low-mid 80Fs. West to WNW winds will follow the front with a rapid temperature drop   once the sun gets low in the sky all but SE Florida. Winds will veer from NW-N during the first 6 hours after dark per the morning runs of the NAM and GFS.  No rain with the front south of I-10 for the most part.

SATURDAY: Winds nearly due north to NNE at the immediate coast. Morning lows could portray a very sharp temperature gradient from east to west across the state, with the A1A corridor from the north side of the Cape and south along mainly the barrier Islands of Brevard in the upper 60S, whereas on the west side of Orlando toward Tampa and South to the NW side of Lake Okeechobee lows could be in the mid-upper 40Fs. Temperatures could be in the low to mid 50s as far south as Kendall in Dade County with the western Metro Area in the 50Fs as well, whereas Key Biscayne could be 17 F degrees warmer. So far though, it mostly looks like the only areas to skid by on this one will be the Barrier Islands of Brevard and the Keys.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON - SUNDAY: All models agree on the wind and temperature fields for the most part, with the GFS being the outlier by  developing a surface to mid level low pressure area that drops SSE east of the  Bahamas over the weekend. Whether or not this happens could make a big impact for the east coast in regard to Winds and rain chances. The NAM (for a change) is not so robust with an actual low developing but rather leaves it as a trough. In turn, an open wave allows more moisture to reach the coast, so without a doubt the NAM translates that to mean measurable rainfall working down the east coast from JAX along a NE wind surge with sunrise Saturday morning. The GFS is not so robust with the surge and as such, the rain. Both show equal amounts of precipitable water though with nearly identical thermal profiles aloft, but with a closed low (per the GFS) more of the moisture remains wrapped around the low and well offshore. For now, siding with the GFS per its track record recently (as of last May).   Either way, increased cloudiness at least along the immediate coast with brisk NE- ENE winds through Monday.

The main concern for the weekend comes with an Air Show  scheduled for the Space Coast. Even if it does not rain, or only lightly, cloud cover would greatly hamper the view...and if the NAM verifies, so would the winds at 2000 ft forecast to be in the 30-40mph range. It looks like one of "Shuttle Launch Fails For Viewing But Happening Anyway" situations unless the NAM verifies, which would mean calling the whole thing off.

BEYOND: Warming temperatures from mid to late week with overnight lows along the coast the same as the ocean temperatures offshore (low-mid 70FS)...and highs in the upper 70Fs at the coast  to lower 80Fs inland and all of South Florida, perhaps mid 80Fs toward the SW Side. The GFS is showing a continued chance of sprinkles not only for the coast but elsewhere, and if so, afternoon highs could be taken down a few notches due to cloud cover, but temperatures will be far from chilly.

The next front is scheduled in the Daily Planner of the Weather Gods for late next week , so we'll have to see if they need to reschedule. So far, neither this front or the one after that has yet to show a temperature impact through mid-November. Lady Luck is on the SnowBird's well as a high percentage of the locals.

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