"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Warming through Friday, Possibly More Unsettled Beyond

Latest Enhanced Water Vapor Image Shows Moisture in the Mid-Upper Levels of the Atmosphere Only. From this image, and equally so when animated, it is apparent that a bit of a modified "Pine-Apple Express" type pattern, typical of a La Nina period , is resulting in high level moisture flowing in a stream overhead North Florida from the Pacific region. The area most impacted by this moisture will likely shift a bit south toward Wednesday as a system passes to the north of the state; however, increased convergence aloft and at lower levels could bring moisture up at any level, thus resulting in period of possibly cloudy sky conditions on Wednesday, and at any time later today toward late afternoon North and Central regions. 

TODAY: Light wind from an east to southeast component becoming calm, most notable right on the beach where cool ocean waters will affect the air temperature. Otherwise, highs in the mid-upper 70Fs. We can see that latest trend in temperatures as noted at 1pm per the Local Data Integration System feed accessible from the National Weather Service Office in Melbourne, Florida. Wind to become south to SSW-SW by sunrise on Wednesday. The land breeze will allow overnight lows to fall into the mid-50Fs many areas, but quickly warm upon one hour after sunrise.

WEDNESDAY: Expecting more clouds as a mid level trough passes to the north of the state. Although showers do not appear possible, the increasing chance of clouds at most any level in the atmosphere should temper afternoon high temperatures into the mid-upper 70Fs west of any body of water, and a bit but not significantly so cooler east of bodies of water (Barrier islands).

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Again, land breeze over night with continued periods of cloudiness varying from partly cloudy toward cloudy, most notably after 3-4pm when the lower sun angle requires the rays to pass through more clouds. Highs approaching 80F to lower 80Fs (South and parts of interior) are possible, but mid-upper 70Fs most likely everywhere regardless all of Central and South, and generally south of I-10. A cold front as shown in the first image now working into the Inter-mountain West , and its associated upper level trough, have consistently appeared to be a harbinger of a pattern shift (later on this).

The models (the GFS namely), has been latching on to this change, although the degree to exactly how much of a change is warranted for the curious minded remains a bit fuzzy. The Pineapple Express type flow can last, historically, anywhere from nearly a week to several weeks.

SATURDAY: GFS run to run consensus indicates the front proper will be working into Florida either late Friday or very early Saturday, but will have cleared Central before mid-morning Saturday at the latest. This could change. GFS temperature fields indicate a similar very cool for a day regime as with the previous frontal boundary. Namely, nothing outrageously cold nor long lasting although it could be quite cool and breezy to near windy on Saturday, and continued cool on Sunday.

BEYOND: As noted, the system impacting Florida's weather beginning Friday and through the weekend could be a change in pattern. The GFS has bounced around with bringing better rain chances to the state beginning some time around late Tuesday into Wednesday ofo next weekend and lasting for several days (up to 5) as the next front moves across the state, gets hung up 'somewhere across the peninsula', then eventually lifts back out to the north and pulls away to the east. This would be a welcome respite in regard to the dry conditions over the state. As it stands, this is the normally driest time of year, and so far this season we are drier than the dry norm. This does not bode well for the "Fire Season", as was a threat last year (and every year). There has already been an account of a fire yesterday of notable proportions.  

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