"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Stronger Storms 'Possible' East Coast Once Again

Visible Satellite Image at 10AM shows Beryl Barreling NEward  over SE Georgia. Otherwise,
vorticity lobe and mid-level boundary producing heavy or moderate rain in some locations north of I-$ with thunder coming in near the lower Big Bend this morning.
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

TODAY: Similar to yesterday, but much of the weather for Brevard and north depends on how long high level clouds seen in this image persist. They could fade away within the next 2 hours or so; therefore, most areas have a chance of seeing a storm today within the orange zones. In purple is where it seems possible an isolated stronger storm due to winds and non-severe sized hail could occur, although just possibly severe category winds could occur in the red zone to purple east of I-95, and maybe in NE Florida where wind fields are more favorable for rotation, although instability there is greatly lacking this morning . For information, there was one official severe wind report in a gust on a tower at Playalinda Beach yesterday (the storm looked great on radar), and a weak EF0 tornado in St. Lucie county damaging two homes according to the report I had seen. This would have likely been a result of the lake breeze/shadow meeting the east coast sea breeze.

Just to throw this out there, it is possible that a boundary could set up just south of the heaviest cirrus cloud coverage across North Central (somewhere), which would again like yesterday result in training of thunder and rain-showers, anywhere from Cape Canaveral/Cocoa Beach/Melbourne to Northern Volusia County in the DAB area. Reasoning being that rain cooled air vs. day time heated air mass would create the thermal and instability gradient along with elongated vorticity draping south and westward from Beryl which is showing up in SOME of the guidance across Central Florida. As Beryl lifts north so too will things change throughout the day in regard to the impacts/effects Beryl has mainly on Central and North Florida. 

Thus, a shifting OUT rather than an arriving weather makes the forecast today especially tricky.  Latest Water Vapor and forecast model guidance shows pronounced drying in the mid levels from North Central Brevard county and across the state toward Sarasota southward to Dade County. Thus, the region over  Far South Central and much of Southern Florida is another trick to deal with. Should isolated storms along the sea breeze ANYWHERE along the zone really from Brevard to Martin County manage to manifest, especially on the northern or southern periphery of the Lake Shadow a severe storm producing strong winds and possible waterspout/tornado , small hail could occur (weak).  

Activity is expected to begin soonest (other than what is now occurring) over South Florida where instability is mounting quickly under sunny skies as sea breezes  commence, all under a bit of the jet stream.  Otherwise, winds along the immediate coast should become side shore and strengthen after 2pm as peak heating of the day approaches up and down the interior sections of the south half of the state . Thus, any activity could become a threat factor for marine interests and residents along the east coast after 2pm - 5pm in particular, with activity lingering toward the east coast until about an hour or so after dark.

BEYOND: Wednesday a sea breeze is not expected, but other factors in place could again result in showers/thunders, but not as wide spread. It is possible another nocturnal boundary will set up overnight (tonight) with rain and thunder across South Central or Central, but that is pure conjecture at this point.

Storms and showers will be in the forecast through Friday but it appears by that day we will be watching mainly South Central and South Florida the closer to the weekend we get. Sometime around Sunday more to watch south and South Central, although moisture content is showing more than ample, it might end up being mainly high clouds and not rain, with isolated activity further north. Time will tell.

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