"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, June 12, 2012

Fairly Rapid Air Mass Modification Making For Tricky Forecast Into Central Today

TODAY: Boundary delineated clearly extending from the Florida Panhandle into the Gulf. At the time, high pressure over Central Appears to be quickly dropping south and/or shrinking or retreating to the west as the trough in the mid levels drops south toward North Central.  Cumulus clouds alone are late in getting started. Latest trends and guidance continue to show an early evening chance of showers/storms (in general) as noted above, but not really expecting anything (as of now) terribly strong.  
, modify, destabilize in time for storm formation before the sun gets too low in the sky. The region to the South is much drier, so the SE winds are advecting in very stable air toward the coast , especially toward South Brevard and South, where as air closer to central is where the changes occur for now.  Expect that by later today the interior area will not be affected   either way. although it does not look so much like a sea breeze collision kind of day except perhaps west of Orlando. There appears to be a separate boundary extending toward DAB (delineated by the clouds offshore), that might end up being the key factor for any thunder/showers today. To note: The NAM shows no activity in this area today..whereas the RUC  (RAP) model changes with every one to varying degrees. Not really expecting anything 'strong' so to speak, but lightning is lightning. Best chance of activity will or should be toward the North early on then migrate SSW-S for a time..toward the interior of Central by 6pm...with other showers possibly formign along the said boundary (if in deed there is one).

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: GFS has backed off considerably on storm coverage the next two days. Indications are lack for a sea breeze which would leave some thunder and rain showers Central to the North..but coverage does not look too impressive. Have to keep monitoring both days. It could just be that the transition now in play occurred as data was coming out, which skewed any subsequent out put.  

BOUNDARY of Sorts should be getting through Central by later on Thursday which then puts the state in NE-ENE as noted yesterday, with a chance of mainly coastal showers, possibly more like thunder in to the interior and SW Coast later in the week. This scenario could play out for a number of days, with the area mentioned previously to develop in thh SW Caribbean more messed up than ever in regard to when where of even If anytying will form down that way later next week..and even is so..what will become of it. See no indicaitons of tropical storm formation at this time. By guess though is that once this boundary pokes through the state toward the straits by the weekend we will finally have a better grasp on what will become of the Caribbean Moist Pack..

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