"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, June 10, 2012

Preempt To Summer Like Pattern Today

“From there to here,
from here to there,
funny things are everywhere.”
TODAY: Image caption about sums it up. Today will be the first of 2012 most resembling a summer like pattern for what it's worth, but it will be short lived. Otherwise, quite humid now late morning with dewpoints running in the mid-upper 70Fs and Cape Canaveral AFS reporting a dew point of 80F with heat index of 97F! One fish two red fish blue fish...and flying fish at that rate .   Outside of the muggies today has the look and feel of a typical late afternoon and early evening thunderstorm set up, with that "mainly along to west of I 95" feel to it; that is except for a trough entering the western Panhandle which appears will ram in to the ridge of high pressure building  into South and Central Florida during the day. That is not summer like.

Typical strength afternoon east coast sea breeze should be able to get started by early afternoon, but not be all too strong. Some showers to go up along it., with thunder beginning toward 4 pm possibly near Northern Volusia or into Flagler County near I-95 if not even toward US1 for a time... then working along a line to the SSW into Orlando and near Sanford toward and west of Kissimmee, with other weak storms either side of that line propagating along the East Coast Sea breeze which by that time will be well inland. 

Could also see some activity along the NW Side of Lake Okeechobee along the Lake/West Coast Sea breeze.  Storm interactions north first should propagate south along the aforementioned  line defined by the inland progression of the east coast sea breeze with a collision occurring late between both coastal breeze toward western or Central Orange into Osceola and finally Polk Counties toward 6pm through 8pm.  

Believe strongest storms (that from wind near 45mph in gusts and maybe some brief pea hail) will be after 6:30pm into or near SW Orange, near or west of Kissimmee, and portions of eastern Polk. Other storms particularly active into Southern Lake County...

With steering from the West to east..could be some rains of light intensity spreading over much of East Central south of I-4 after 6 or 7pm, or simply a lot of high and mid level   'storm debris' cloudiness.  Otherwise, some stronger activity could occur in the West 1/2 of the panhandle, but suspect the primary concern there will be heavy rain totals west of Panama City.

MONDAY/TUESDAY: Much less chance of any rain many areas except late in the day near I-4  Tampa to I-95 and north.  (mainly north 1/2 of state) with late day showers possibly working into North Brevard Tuesday evening.

WEDNESDAY/FRIDAY: So much for a typical summer pattern. Although it might look and feel like summer, with a frontal boundary moving in on the state synoptically speaking it won't be. Much better chance of mid afternoon to late evening showers and thunder, especially Thursday and as far south as South Florida moving toward the East Coast, especially Thursday and Friday. Guidance remains a bit iffy still, but in general Thursday through Friday and maybe Saturday have been highlighted for said activity as a heads up at this point. The front could get as far as Central will it will hang out, much like our last event before being absorbed by a large Caribbean Sponge bath from the south.

BEYOND: Gets messy. Surge of moisture associated with large area of low pressure to work north from the SW Caribbean by Sunday or Monday time frame next week and could be in the pictures for a few days. Looks like another version of what we just had only more activity with a tropical feel to it. Bigger impacts, if so, appears will be rainfall with some thunder, but the primary concern given the warm air aloft associated with deep tropical air mass transport from the south. It gets messier in that it could get tied in with another frontal boundary

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