"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, July 21, 2012

Isolated Heavy Rainfall Totals/Gusty Winds In Storms Possible Today

Some stronger storms (red) are possible today with big rainfall totals due to slow storm motion and continues inflow feed from coastal sea breezes accompanied by high instability feed in CAPE and Lifted Indices under dry air in the mid levels
TODAY: Gradually evolving pattern taking shape as expected with the usual twists and turns along the way. "The SAL (Saharan Air Layer) has cleared the area~!!"  pipes the trumpet, "all coasts clear". 

Meanwhile, gradually increasing moisture toward just below seasonal norms except South Florida today will result in more coverage of unsaid yet summer like storm activity as opposed to yesterday's "SW Floridians Only" storms and an isolated pocket near Marion/Lake County (for the most part).  Sea breeze convergence looks like a better bet today with a slant favoring the interior with outflows reaching toward I-95 or US1 very late toward dark. Thus, we could see some increased cloud coverage near the coast, especially north of 528 due to mid-level wind directions pushing cloud debris with no other impacts.

Otherwise, increased low level instability and 'forecast' cooler mid-level temperatures (the morning KSC sounding did not reflect these cooler temperatures, so it is a matter of trusting that they will 'advect' or move into the area in 'red' later today). Above the mid-levels, temperatures are cold enough to support a strong storm or so, if one considers -8C which is well below freezing, cold. A bit hard to imagine   air up there is so cold when it is 90F + at the ground. But, hot air rises, and the colder above that hot air it is, the faster it will rise. That , coupled with moist air which is  more buoyant (like steam), adds up to clouds and updraft columns, visible or not visible to the eye. They are only visible when clouds manifest and in time-lapse, except under a growing cloud base, referred to as 'cloud tags' .  Strongest storms after 5:00pm mainly from near the Osceola County line up toward Orlando / Narcossee (maybe), Kissimmee, and much of Polk County as well as further to the SSW where deeper moisture will advect in as the day wears on.

As this activity collapses under its own weight due to slow storm motions, outflows (quite gusty due to cold air falling) could extend well past the west coast and near I-95 or US1 on the east coast with little effect other than some clouds. With heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty winds, and BB sized hail potentially in an isolated momentary up-burst collapse well in the interior , the immediate beach-goer will remain ignorant to all this occurring in the   after 6pm while innocently tipping the toes in the cool ocean waters behind one's back to the west while considering a sea shell.  

SUNDAY: Discrepancy being resolved, but still not quite, as models disagree on how far north moisture will get on the east side of the state as opposed to wrapping south of Lake Okeechobee and up the west side. It's looking more like the rain producing qualifiers will remain from Indian River County and South and work toward the inland and west coast area toward Cedar Key or Brooksville, with the rest of the east remaining dry.

MONDAY: The plot thickens. Will the moisture  in a secondary surge slap a an atmospheric moisture wave ashore further north  ...or is it Professor Plum, in the library, with the candlestick ? Implications are the former will be the case, but with thunder activity inland mainly South Central and South, not too far off from today...will have to investigate this with a magnifying glass more as we work toward tonight and Sunday.

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