"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

New Theme, Better Thunder Chance Today?

Two (red) Upper lows remain in place. The one near JAX is expected to lift NW today slowly while the dashed lavender line denotes a mid-level trough axis which will move very little throughout the day. Note the dry, hazy air mass approaching South Florida forecast to arrive toward Thursday/Friday and then lift north across Central on Saturday
TODAY: Hard to say exactly , for sure, definitively, or even probably what will happen when and where today as showers already forming over Western South Central portions creeping NE (but  very weak).  Guidance is pointing toward a slightly better low level instability today, but lifted indices (a measure of instability) could be the clincher, as they have been pretty low the past two days.  One severe warning was issued very late day in Marion County along a west coast sea breeze type interaction.  Otherwise, do expect a shallow east coast sea breeze to form today with a more rapid acceleration of the west coast sea breeze, especially south of Brookesville and south into the interior regions. A late day collision near I-95 is possible which could be the harbinger of stronger storms as noted in red-below.

SOUTH FLORIDA: Problem is activity off the SW Coast. If upper level winds advect cloudiness across this area the rain chances shut down entirely. On the other hand, they could get started early enough and/or those clouds could abate later today, so not to count that area out.

CENTRAL: Better instability is forecast to work in from the NW today across all of North and North Central toward Brevard.  Activity to the north will move very little under and north of the trough axis whereas activity south of it could meet the near coast sea breeze with greater low level forcing. Thus the red line for possibly stronger than expected pulse like and short lived activity, although that of the sort could occur almost any where after 4pm through 7pm. Expect again the first true activity like yesterday to begin to manifest shortly after noon time Central Portions and South., as further north this area is much too stable this hour.

NORTH: Could be yet stronger activity at least the west half of the panhandle region moving offshore. Winds here are a tad stronger, but really, the coolest mid-level temperature 'forecast' is along that 'orange' trough, thus, a secondary reason to at least consider better chances of thunder as opposed to rain showers, especially after 4pm, cloud cover permitting.

BEYOND: More chances of thunder on Wednesday many areas but chances dwindle toward Thursday through Saturday in various areas as the drier air moves in.  By Sunday the drier air might be all but cleared the state with a resumption of storms a bit inland from the east coast for a day or two.

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