"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, July 14, 2012

Out On a Limb-cast Leaves Options Open this Afternoon

Friday morning at 9AM Shower passing over North Cocoa Beach  

TODAY: Model discrepancy runs rampant from model run to model run and between models in regard to today, and not so coincidentally is not matching up with latest satellite animation trends.

Thus, for the more rain prone (but apparently less likely wetchancecast per latest water-vapor and satellite animation) an upper level with a weak surface reflection well east of Florida and NE of the Bahamas is rolling W-WNW with increased moisture and much larger shower and likely thunder activity with it. Comparatively speaking, small showers on local radars are showing mainly South Central and south that look like mere specks on satellite as we will see below compared what is well off to the east at this time.

 Based on timing via animations, it appears the leading edge of deeper 700 millibar (mb) moisture (near 10,000 feet or so up in the atmosphere) will reach the east coast after 2pm which could mean a much better chance of showers in the zones noted below. On the other hand, should the NAM and not so much the RAP model verify, the moisture will only get so far west before slowing down,   not coming within the bounds of the beaches until at least as late as midnight toward 7AM Sunday. That is a BIG difference . Thus, for a east coast wet-cast, showers could be on the increase by mid-afternoon. On the other-hand, we might be able to hold off until sometime well after dark.

Otherwise, the better chance of showers and thunderstorms will be from Tampa and South within 30 miles of the west coast, with strongest activity downstream of Lake Okeechobee under the largely east to west flow aloft.  The tides and times change though later tonight as the trough aloft and the mid-level winds shift as it impinges toward the state, as does the steering currents.

Two lows, mainly upper to mid levels shown above with a trough in dashed red connecting them. The yellow lines are showing the leading edge of the moisture 'fiends' ahead of them. Timing if nothing were to change in direction of the leading edge of the moisture fields places them at the beaches by mid-afternoon. However, should the more northern low start to lift more toward the NW and open up, it will be delayed significantly. Stronger storms could be in the 'red zone'
SUNDAY: More complications will very likely abound. So far, guidance is painting a wet picture for all of east central working west during the day along with continually veering winds aloft toward the south from the previous easterly direction of today and early this evening. That means transitions over night and tomorrow abound, with ample moisture. Would not be surprised for some 'bust-casts' unless rain chances for Central and South almost anywhere are put in the forecasts tonight concerning the expectant outcomes of this current pattern. 

With much lighter winds by tomorrow though, would not be surprised that some funnel clouds could not form as showers approach the east coast anytime after 7AM to early afternoon in heavier showers which could continue thunder as well. Tomorrow is a big mess really, and rain chances to not appear will necessarily be restricted from any particular areas of the peninsula as winds continue to veer , especially by early evening. East 'Centrallers' could receive rain more than once from early day activity and then again toward or shortly after dark during the pattern shift.

MONDAY/WEDNESDAY: Steering pattern shift as has been noted now for several posts, with activity taking an eastward rather than westward drift during the day. Although steering will be slow it will be nonetheless toward the east with a weak and possibly slightly delayed east coast sea-breeze. By later Wednesday dry air associated with a TUTT (Tropical Upper-Tropispheric Trough) and Saharan Air Layer easily discernible in specialized satellite imagery approaches from the east. Problems arise in regard to storm coverage during this time frame since it is too far out in time to determine how extensive and deep the dry air will be as well as where and how it will be located across the state Thursday-Saturday. It does not appear so far that all areas will be excluded from receiving rainfall, but it is simply to discern where the dry air will be exactly. Yes, we can go by what models are showing now but it is too soon to say with a high degree of certainty other than it appears the Southern 1/3 of the state will be most affected during the time frame as it stands today. 
"Salty Dusty SAL"

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