"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, July 3, 2012

Storm Chances Invariably Variable Through Saturday

The Images Above Wraps Up Today...Typical Summer Like Day in Store!
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY: Summer time conundrums prevail as a hail of invariably variable variables reigns.

Model guidance is hither and yon on exactly where the best chances will be today for storms, but when push comes to shove, it won't really matter any hoot if trying to pin point down to specifics. There is ample moisture and close to nil steering currents (and it gets more so later in the week). In short, storms will move little and manifest along sea-lake breezes and eventually boundaries created by they themselves. 

Best chance of a genuine storm may at first be toward FAR South Florida , the Panhandle, and  toward the NE-SE shores of Lake Okeechobee. There could be a brief lull in activity before leap frogging toward 5:30 - 6:00pm when some stronger activity might reside from near Altamonte Springs, North Orlando side southward into Osceola County. Models really are all over the place with the rain/precipitation field parameters in their graphical depictions, but the NAM of all things seems to have picked up on the dry slot in the mid levels running across a portion of South Central north of Lake Okeechobee, at least for the interim.  The strongest of storms could end up where any boundaries meet along the edge  of that temporary dry area. It is there visibly by observation of the latest visible satellite imagery. The RUC/RR picked up this as well, but shows the highest coverage of thunder in the same area per the K-Index measurement tool, which looks suspect. The HRRR buys into it too as well. In another light though, almost no one lives in the areas shown to have the highest coverage in the area across far South Central over the interior. 

In summation, expecting peak hours to begin around 5:30  and last through 8:39pm (Precisely) Dead Central possibly as far east as I-95 in Volusia and North Brevard. Other areas further east could see some light rainfall as outflows work east  along the retreating sea breeze decay after 9pm.  Diminishing activity toward mid evening.

The remainder of the weak is   pretty much the same game.  Latest guidance indicates   the low-mid level ridge axis' now across South Central toward the Lake might both decay to the point that steering winds become irreconcilably close to completely irrelevant, as if lack of steering currents for storm motion wasn't weak enough already. Wind barbs being reduced to mere featherless barbs of random nothingness. So, like an arrow with feathers, so is the storm location going to be, directionless.

By Late weekend, we might be in for a pattern shift removing slowly the rain chances for specifically the East side of the state except toward West Palm and South; however, as one might and should expect, those prospects go away only to return with every other model run. Looks like summer. 


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