"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Isolated Thunder Far East Central Portions Late Today

TODAY: Frontal boundary has moved little since yesterday and lower level winds have weakened a bit as a reflection of what will eventually happen to the boundary in the next 48 hours. Meanwhile, winds just above the deck are only a tad weaker today as opposed to yesterday but I expect they will weaken yet more as the day progresses. This should allow the east coast sea breeze to set up along the east coast, but make very little inland progress, maybe just toward US1 up and down the east coast except further south of West Palm Beach.

The best convergence will be near the front; however(!) - <gotta love ('howevers')>, it appears there is little in the mid-level moisture parameter north of I-4, and south of I-4 toward Melbourne is starting to dry out as well where convergence will not be as formidable for storm formation.

Conservative Approach to Shower and Thunder Coverage today, Possibly overboard
on the Strong Department Since any Strong Storms might be short lived. Strong due to wind gusts
Otherwise, the area that has cleared out since early day cloudiness is all but SE Florida, and with shorter days now in tow, this area might never realize enough destabilization for thunder. Drawn in is a Green zone, but this 'could' end up being thunder late today as well with a better chance of sea breeze collision away from the coast over the Glades. Otherwise, under the supposition there is a least a "side shore type sea breeze and up the intracoastals (but very light)", best convergence and upper level divergence will be along the east coast from Melbourne Beach and North under the drier mid-level air and thus stronger down draft Convective Available Potential Energy. With that said, some brief but strong wind gusts in the 38-50mph range are always possible near and east of I-95 mainly. Storms will move (assuming there are some after 4pm through 7pm) toward the ENE-E, and maybe work a bit ESE near Canaveral along outflows a tad slower than yesterday, but would anticipate that many roads across East Central will have another period of dreary dripping heading toward sunset, if only from showers.  All continget upon storm initiation/location  .

BEYOND: Thursday looks a bit similar to today with slower storm motions and better chances yet still of a sea breeze convergence. The front will sink just maybe a bit further south and continue to become more diffuse/indiscernible during the frontalysis process, while the upper level trough and winds remain positioned for SW flow aloft. Thus, chance of showers and some isolated thunder continues close to the surface to mid-level boundary, mainly Central and North Central .  

Continuing the road ahead, we're seeing only light onshore easterly flow and close to no- flow at the steering level, leading to a drifting inland shower regime with coastal showers also possible from the Cape and south to Miami. No change in temperatures,

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