"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, September 7, 2012

Isolated Thunderstorms Mainly From 4pm to Dark

Cape Canaveral Late Thursday, September 6, Thunderstorm

TODAY: Not much different than yesterday sums it up, with only a few conditions that point to less favorable for widespread thunder. Morning sounding, as expected, revealed warmer 500 mb temperatures now that the upper low has opened to a trough and is well east of the state. Additionally, steering is a meager 5-8 mph from the NW to WNW and the air becomes sharply drier about 10,000 ft.  up in the atmosphere.Thus, with only weak sea breezes along the east coast with the west coast sea breeze more than likely making greater headway, appears inland activity is possible along the larger Lakes especially Lake Okeechobee toward Ft. Pierce and on the South Side of the Lake and the South Side of Orlando eastward toward Seminole County and SW Volusia toward North Brevard potentially.

Outflows from even showers will likely be the next boosting mechanism since air aloft is still cool in the mid-levels which would give convergence along lake and those boundaries something for the atmosphere to play with. 

The issue today will be how much forcing there is upward to propel the column through the mid-drier level to big and great heights (strong thunderstorms). Making no mistake about, any said storm should it develop, will be able to produce frequent lightning, but as of the past two days I have not seen little  beyond the ordinary except toward Lake Okeechobee, and today the playing factors on those days are absent. 

But if so, it would be from Orlando/Sanford/Port St. John to west of Rockledge area and maybe southward toward US 1 to Melbourne. Did not really draw in specifics today as there is too much contingent upon 'additive'  mystery factors coming together to make a true hypothesis; point being rather to establish a framework dialogue describing what we are working with today rather than trying to strain a gnat. 

The other missing factor is upper level vorticity which was present along the east coast the past two days. It could still become a bit cloudy and 'drippy' anywhere along the east coast by late afternoon into the early evening though toward the east coast and inland areas where storms lay to bury and die out.

BEYOND: Above note the RED "L" in the image . This surface low formed in part from remaining energy associated with Isaac's Rotator cup. It is not expected to do a whole lot considering a frontal boundary will be giving it   Das Boot within about 48 hours toward the East to EastNorthEast as it it  can no longer dig its heals, being absorbed in a trough to move through the middle of the country (which will make for some cool mornings indeed - into the 40Fs in some locations in the wee hours). Speaking of which, I noticed Okeechobee City this morning was at 64F degrees before sunrise, and Vero hit a record low of 69F I believe it was yesterday morning. They were right around there before sunrise today as well.

IN any case, the frontal boundary will be sinking in to Central Florida around Monday now, and just exactly how far south the boundary will get is a bit more aloof, but the ECMWF and the previous GFS had it getting to the Florida straits. It might just take a little while longer to get there (if at all). Might even hang up toward Lake Okeechobee. 

But for the weekend, Saturday is not looking like such a big deal as far as rain goes as it appeared it would be, at least not for thunder. Very warm near the east coast though with delayed if any sea breeze north of Brevard. With all the sun and few clouds at the beaches and with Leslie loafing offshore, rip current threat is now reading "HIGH" from the National Weather Service so be advised of 'under toe out' and 'over head burnin'.'


Better rain chance on Sunday, but really does not appear all too impressive with no chance of a sea breeze and not real good forcing. mainly, rain chance on Sunday is well north of Lake Okeechobee...continuing into Monday Central and South Central.

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