"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, May 11, 2013

Is there a Chance of Severe Storms Today? Conditional Risk?

RED Indicates to Renegade Remote Chance only as of 11AM Today for an increasing potential for Isolated Strong to Severe Storms today after 3:pm  - 8pm. Heads up post only. 
TODAY: This post for pre-clarification is in lieu of the norm while monitoring a possible unfolding situation so as not to cry wolf. Latest SPC Mesoscale Analysis (next image which is one of many available) is showing some parameters for Supercell Thunderstorms (and even a tornado?) close to the state as a Mesoscale Convective Vortex (that is what it appears to be) approaches the state from the W-WNW. Whether the most volatile parameters conducive for a very active day remain to the west or not is one question, and the next is if they are even valid. In comparing the time scale parameters using the 'back in time' tool, the current values now showing are much further east than previous model runs were depicting. If that trend continues, we might be hearing weather update forecasts coming out after 1pm today, Thus, only a heads up. The secondary option is that there will be a focus toward the East Coast from Daytona and South for storms rolling down the Sea breeze front where max convergence could occur, after 4:30pm or so.

Note the little red box for what this images is showing. In previous guidance plots, that supercell composite parameter noted by the blue traces was well to the west of the state, and the forecast of it was also well to the west of the state, yet, that above is the latest just out.
 Otherwise: It is noted that there is strong downdraft CAPE associated with the unstable parameters which would or could significantly stifle afternoon activity (as was the case yesterday) except over South Florida. Thus, nothing is or might not be as black and white as things might at first seem to be concerning today's forecast.

On one hand, there could be severe storms. On the other hand, if some dry air in the significant layer between the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) and the Level of Free Convection (LFC) is really like as moisture starved as guidance is showing , there could be very little activity today or what does goes up could quickly wisp out.  BUT, any storm that can get going could be Strong to Severe today. Otherwise, warm and sunny through the morning and early - mid afternoon. Storms , if any otherwise, should occur after 4pm through to after sunset as late as 10pm (as lingering showers and/or cloud cover). Again, worst case forecast for today, a beach and outdoor activities one.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: Once again, a chance of rain showers and thunder on Sunday, more so only on Monday for Far South Florida. Temperatures cooler behind the frontal boundary most notably in the afternoon hours. After Monday, there is almost no chance of rain until at least next weekend or nearly so.

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