"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, July 1, 2013

Chance Again of Strong Storms Mainly East Central Today - Conditionally

"STORMY WATERS " (Cape Canaveral, Manatee Park)

TODAY: As expected, another tricky forecast day, more so than the past two days. Several factors are forecast to come into place almost worth mentioning the "S" word for but will leave it with the little 's' for strong as opposed to Severe Storms. Short term guidance and now with newest model guidance for the mid-range time frame is showing some stronger than usual low-mid level winds across South Central toward parts of North Central (mainly over the east half of the state) to work north as the high pressure to the east of the state attempts to nudge in across South Florida later today.

Higher instability is currently confined to South Florida but that should be advected up, across, and around Lake Okeechobee by mid afternoon toward I-4 if it can get that far. So far, guidance insists that it will not get much further north than the Brevard county line though.

This, coupled with a resurgence of stronger winds from 5000-10,000 feet AND, and only if, a slight side shore like sea breeze, upriver wind gets going, storms crossing the rivers mainly from South Brevard toward Mims or extreme Southern Volusia  (Oak Hill for example toward Sanford) might pull off some surprises. Additionally, although not shown (below) thunder really is possible all the way as far north as St. Augustine.

 Storm motion should be even faster today than previous days as the could well grow quite rapidly   from south to north during the mid afternoon into late afternoon. Outflows could add to the mix as well. That last factor to consider will be what, if any, the Lake Okeechobee shadow will have.  Best winds for what could produced strong to severe might  end up where there  is less instability (Volusia and Orange/Seminole area Tampa).  Net point being, too difficult to peg down any specific areas.

RED is for the 'possible' stronger activity, although this might need
 to have been shifted west about 20-50 miles, hard to say for sure.
"Oh Nooooo...."

TUESDAY: This day again is another tricky day but chances remain for rain on this day in many areas, although the GFS seems to imply it will be late day, along the east Central coast, maybe even later than today, with less instability, so strong storms appear to be out of the picture tomorrow.

WEDNESDAY: Again, some rain chance but exactly where is up in the air as the pattern will be in the process of shifting out and nearing an entirely new phase of SSE-ESE flow into Thursday.

THURSDAY: Oddly, the new NAM model is now showing rain along the east coast much of the day on the Fourth of July, but will throw it out as of now and keep it 'dry' except maybe early morning along the east coast.

BEYOND: Tropical wave like feature (s) now forecast to approach somewhere between the end of the weekend to early next week, the GFS and ECMWF diverge as to when it will approach the state though, but late Sunday - Tuesday time frame is the time frame (so far) for another rain chance of ocean origins.

The LONGER RANGE is almost easier though: Little chance of any thunderstorms it appears into the middle of July, which really isn't all that unusual some years as easterly flow prevails with periodic ripples of atmospheric moisture passing over making for some showers every few days or so, but nothing at all significant. Thunder toward the west coast even looks low due to lack of a good west coast sea breeze.

"A Severe Thunderstorm Warning Is Now In Effect"  - Banana River, Cape Canaveral