"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Friday, August 30, 2013

Increasing Thunder Chances THrough Labor Day Weekend

Slight Increase in Rain Showers and Thunder Especially
Interior North Central and North Florida west of the Suwannee River Valley Basin
And Interior South Central Along a Mid-Level Moisture 'axis'

TODAY: An upper low which has been near South Florida Continues to meander in that area. An interesting cluster of rain and some thunderstorm activity has been in progress since before sunrise, which originally started out on the north side of Cuba and has managed to lift north to the current position visible in the image above in the bottom right hand corner. It will be interesting to see if this anomaly amounts to anything more toward the East Side late today or tonight, although there are no indications that it will in the models.

Elsewhere, an axis of low pressure across across Central is showing signs of instigating some convergence on visible satellite imagery along and south of it but is not expected to move much more today, hence interior activity more likely today than the past few days. The other region to watch will be near the Suwannee River Valley basin toward the Ocala Area and into Lake County south and east toward the Northern Orange County far Volusia (west) region. Otherwise some mid afternoon cloud decks could start to manifest and cloud up the east coast regions in varying degrees to scant to nearly cloudy, especially by later today.

WEEKEND: The Low pressure troughs shown above will lift a little further north as a ridge axis aloft builds in behind them and into South Florida. This should help to increase the SW to NE steering flow just a bit more but with sea breeze convergence activity still at play .  Moisture south of those trough axis' will increase toward the Dead Central, or Canaveral to Brooksville line, if not I-4 by Sunday or Monday, and as a result, more mid-late day activity into the early - mid evenings is possible. Colder air aloft associated with the upper low could 'spark' off some stronger storms on Saturday and Sunday interior of the South Half of the state with an eastward drift at 7-11 mph. Net effect will mean a better chance of rain toward the desert regions, a.k.a. Barrier Islands, if not a better chance of over cast sky cover late each day.

MONDAY: The story though so far Labor Day seems to be the best chance of rain showers of all the next upcoming days with continued chances into Tuesday between another possible pattern shift.

"Happy Labor Day...and..."

TROPICS: Guidance continues to show a few tropical wave like formations as steering again starts to come off the ocean as has been the case most of August. But increased moisture could pose for a better chance of oceanic to onshore showers but this is still too far out in time to gander or muse upon heavily. Otherwise, a possible closed low or two is not out of the question, mostly off out at sea. The other things to watch for will be a frontal boundary and the first 'cool shot of fall' coming in right on cue from Labor Day to mid-week next week, which will most affect the North Central U.S. and east to the Great Lakes  south toward the Mason Dixon line (while the immediate East U.S. coast toward NYC and south might eke out on the 'worst of it'...meaning lows into the upper 40Fs to lowers 50Fs look possible in the aforementioned more northern areas of that most impacted area). Florida will remain south of the boundary though, and as it appears will behave more like a Florida  August than August had .

..don't get too stirred up over it.

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