"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Sunday, March 16, 2014

Chance of Unusually Strong - Severe Storms Monday

Latest View from above the Sky Notes Developing Squallish Like Activities Far to the west 

TODAY: No change in the line of thinking from previous post. Currently a line of heavy rain and thunderstorms is pushing across the Panhandle and South Georgia where a few warnings are being issued as a result more than likely of the strong winds aloft, but with little instability at the low levels. 

As a result, thunderstorms with strong wind and rain storm tops  (thunder or not) are curling over toward North Central Florida , and as such should increase over that area later today in several hours, noticeable by early evening before sunset by several hours. Otherwise, warm and gusting SSE winds to near 32 mph in gusts this afternoon, coolest temperatures beach side , but inland highs could get well into the lower 80Fs with a few mid-80Fs possible. Very early springish outside today! 

MONDAY: Line might weaken some overnight, or might not, hard to say. Regardless, the 'region of interest' will focus toward I-4 by sunrise and into Central Florida as far south as a Vero Beach to Sarasota line by mid-late morning. It's worth noting that instability tomorrow, though not all that much, is still shown to be much more than what is over North Florida and south Georgia right now. 

Wind fields over North Central to Central Florida though won't be quite the caliber as what is over South Georgia right now, but will be strong enough for good speed shear  and a little directional shear as well.  Temperatures aloft are expected to warm but still fall within the threshold which would insinuate that strong storms could still occur, possibly even severe briefly and in small, isolated pockets. All it takes is one.  

The region near Dead Central once again is of interest as is often the case at this time of year as that is where the better overlap of instability (south) plus the winds aloft (north) intersect. Wind from the South - South southwest should be able to advect the greater instability over South Florida northward tomorrow after sunrise right into and under the stronger winds aloft beginning around 11AM through 4pm tomorrow.

 Much that occurs tomorrow though will depend on the southward progress of the greatest convergence along the front proper being made evident by the radar image below. 

As noted yesterday, some discrete storm cells might form over Central Florida mid day to afternoon. Those cells in particular though by appearance might look less threatening than a big squally line like feature, could actually pose a greater threat but of much shorter duration. The chance of such storms is not a certainty, only a potential. If they do start to form, the could all start to form at once  , once a particular unknown threshold is reached in the atmosphere. But if that threshold is never reached, then it stands to reason that no storms will form either.

"Tomorrow" 's  'best  guess' (for a blog post)  for Monday (South of the white line)

MONDAY NIGHT: The front looks like it might pass through Central Florida now after dark, continuing at least a heavy / periodic rain chance with stronger winds, even in rain showers, though that chance 'should theoretically' dwindle by late evening. Rain s should be but over for the most part by Sunrise Tuesday, but if earlier guidance is more correct than the last model run I'm seeing, could continue into mid-late day Tuesday. As noted in the previous post though, indications were that it could be over and done with by early morning Tuesday.

BEYOND: No big cool down behind this frontal system is being seen. Some cooler mornings, most notable inland with easterly winds presuming by Wednesday afternoon with the sea breeze. So far next weekend is looking like it might be very warm with light winds. 

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