"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, June 11, 2014

Chance of Heavy Storms mainly East Side of State Later Today

Upper level (around 500mb or 20,000 feet) 'energy' (vorticity) is shown in red and is easily discernible in water vapor animations this morning ,  counter-clockwise rotation is seen in that area. This area of energy was off SE Florida Yesterday , and is still in place this morning having moved a bit north and west overnight, likely responsible for some of the stirring of the moisture at the mid-levels, and a cloud deck which is breaking up over parts of the state
TODAY: The state seems to be divided between two weather regimes. The Western Panhandle by a nearly stationary cold frontal boundary that passed through Wet Texas the other day and across the Arkansas/Louisiana area Sunday resulting in some severe thunderstorm warnings, and the other being a vorticity max (show in red above) hovering around the state of Florida. 

Animation of the above image clearly show counter clockwise rotation in the moisture fields shown by the whites and grays. This 'area of energy' could provide the impetus to boost storm activity today either by intensity or how long it will be prolonged during the day (resulting in some heavy rainfall totals somewhere). Temperatures aloft are slowly getting cooler as noted yesterday which will also help promote storm growth and/or sustain activity (even if only drips into the evening hours).

The best chance of stronger storms could be near the vorticity  location.  With steering from the WSW-SW at around 11-14 kts per the morning KSC sounding combined with an afternoon sea breeze which shouldn't make too much inland progress, late day piling up of storms progressing toward the coast combined with outflows / lake breeze boundaries,   and plentiful moisture in the proper atmospheric levels for storm generation, we 'should' (tongue in check) have no problem with some locations seeing over 2-3 inch rainfall totals, some usual dangerous cloud to ground lightning, and perhaps some smaller hail reports, with rains ending at some spots perhaps not well until after 9 or 10pm this evening.

THURSDAY: Better chance of strong to perhaps pulse severe storms with very cold air aloft for this time of year as noted yesterday. The NWS in Melbourne has mentioned the unusually colder air aloft as well in the forecast models. Suspect the Storm Prediction Center will place the state in at least a 'See Text" for 'strong storms tomorrow at some point (if not today as well), but so far they have mentioned only the Panhandle for today.

FRIDAY: Steering toward the east coast begins to weaken, though some showers and a storm or two could go up very close to the east coast, suspect  "the main crux of the matter " late afternoon/early evening activity will primarily be along to west of I-95 and just away from either of the coasts, but more so on SATURDAY --

SUNDAY and BEYOND: Steering will promote activity to shift toward the interior areas and the west coast for a number of days. As hard it is to believe, by the Tuesday time frame the state's forecast in general continues to be partially contingent upon what happens way down by the Bay of Campeche and the Yucatan Peninsula (based on the GFS model). Thus, beyond about Tuesday, it's hard to say if storms will favor the west side or east side of the state (or any side). . status quo says interior and along the I-4 and Florida Turnpike Corridors.

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