"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Tuesday, June 24, 2014

Storms Today, But Where

"Storm and Attendant Arcus Cloud Formation Rolls into Central Brevard County Monday Afternoon"
TODAY: Very tricky blog post from the armchair's perspective today. Latest short term RAP guidance and other models available are showing sparse on the rain chances today most areas except mainly North and far South Florida. The latest RAP (RUC) model and associated output on the Mesoscale Analysis page shows a huge dry socket over South Central to South Florida though sounding data isn't exactly confirming this per MIA's (Miami) forecast discussion. Sea breezes will again come into play today with steering from almost  the due west to east or perhaps a slight ESE motion from the WNW. 

If activity goes up early on the sea breeze some areas might be scoured (stabilized) early on toward the beaches for any substantial rainfall later today, but as is oft the case in the summer, the true storms probably won't get cranking until after the 4:30 - 5pm time frame (at least).  Given the dry mid level air discrepancies, any storms that can get going particularly over the south half could have some hefty wind gusts and the always present threat of lightning well removed from the rain field. 

 A few  radar images (below) show the evolution of what occurred over East Central Florida yesterday as a storm from near MLB (Melbourne)and another further north toward The KSC worked toward each other and merged. Another storm then forms and moves toward Daytona Beach. (see bottom of post).

TOMORROW into WEEKEND: On the other hand, so far today is shown to be the 'driest' most possible day on a Central or even statewide basis if the GFS holds true which is always questionable. High pressure near the Keys is forecast to lift northwest putting the state in more of a northerly steering, but on the other hand a bubble low could also form going toward the weekend near JAX (Jacksonville) and drop south. These features are all very weak though, but will make a significant difference on where it rains and why coming into the weekend which so far is looking a bit 'wet' afternoon wise, though that could easily change after a few more model runs.

BELOW: Storm moving in. Radar Sample, Image A below shows two separate storms conjoining to Image B over East Central Florida yesterday afternoon.



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