"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Monday, July 14, 2014

Day of Transition Translates To A New Pattern Tuesday - Friday

Super Moon Low Tide Ponding on Sunday Afternoon
TODAY: Pattern transition will be ongoing during the course of the day, albeit very slowly and gradually. Winds aloft today are to take a deep turn to a more west to east component though remain light. With less early day cloud coverage after a batch of high clouds clears the area of most parts, destabilization will be free to commence unhindered. Morning PWAT (precipitable water) at the Cape (KSC) was down a bit to 1.75" with a convective temperature of 90F but with a cap of zero. Though showers could get going by noon time in some areas, suspect that today will not be like the past two days, but perhaps only a small reflection of them. 

Activity again could occur almost anywhere, but perhaps could get a bit stronger after 3 - 4pm toward sunset and more so as outflows meet sea breezes either side of the state but, which  'could' propagate more toward the east as early evening comes . The immediate coasts east of US1 (for example) might not see rains until very late and they might only be light, but regardless, activity will begin an eastward shift , though an isolated case or two of a full blown storm far east is not' out of the question.

TUESDAY - THURSDAY: Cold front will work south during this time frame and perhaps reach right into the Florida Panhandle by Thursday. Increasing Southwest flow down to the surface (ground level) might be too strong to allow for an east coast sea breeze, but perhaps one that remains well east of I-95 from the Cape and South on one or more of those days. It's simply too early to know for certain at this point. Would expect to see plentiful midday cumulus cloud activity with showers though, exactly how this pattern will evolve bears closer scrutiny as some strong storms are possible if various parameters are able to align. Either way, better rain chances for the beaches, but as the word implies, chances are not guarantees.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY: The GFS is shifting gears a bit in the past two runs and is no longer indicating a full blow westward shift in storm activities this weekend and early next week, or at least not to such a great degree. A secondary low pressure area outside of the one up in Ontario is to work its way across the South Central Plains and into the Deep South region in general. This could reinforce the pattern already in place from the previous days, but the degree to which that will occur is bouncing around. The overall effect though is to keep Florida in more of at least a southerly flow for storm steering as opposed to a more direct east to west flow. There might also be a few mid levels boundaries saying somewhere across the state come this weekend from the previous storm system , which will be interesting to watch for from a forecast perspective.

IN THE FUTURE wouldn't be surprised to hear news headlines discussing high heat in parts of Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona as the GFS is fairly consistent in building a very large  high pressure ridge over the SW US (assuming that holds true) because if this happens, the response to the east is that another unusual trough might be in the making for the eastern U.S.   What happens with that, if it does, will greatly determine storm steering across the state of Florida as we reach the July 23 -29th time frame.

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