"But seeing they could not See; hearing they could not Hear"
“The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the National Weather Service or affiliate/related organizations. Please consult .gov sites for official information”

"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Wednesday, July 9, 2014

Heavy Rain/Frequent Lightning 'Creeping Charlie' Storms Possible Today

"A Couple Caught in The Storm on Wednesday"
TODAY: As noted in the previous post, today would look much like yesterday with some minor exceptions. The sky is remarkably cloud free over a large diagonal swath of the state as of 11AM, otherwise some shower and thunder activity off the west coast and SE Florida are the harbingers of things to come by mid-late afternoon into early evening. Since little has changed in any of the parameters of notable nature and winds aloft are nearly unchanged, expect again with good heating for a thermal heat low to form near Lake Okeechobee to encompass the inland area of the South Half of the peninsula as sea breezes from both coasts work inland. It is in general in that area that the rains 'could theoretically' focus their attention on early this evening. Whether activity will arise near or on the incoming east coast sea breeze as close to the Cape Canaveral/Kennedy area as was the case yesterday is unknown but is not shown to occur today. The hot spot could end up being near Vero Beach along the east coast sea breeze/Lake Okeechobee (The Big Lake) breeze intersect in Martin / St. Lucie County areas.

The area that is most clear as of 11AM might end up the most wet by day's end
Though steering is from the west/southwest it is only about 10 kts or less, which is close to negligible, thus most storm apparent motions will more be due to propagation along boundaries of various sorts such as lake breezes/ the sea breezes/and outflow boundaries, as well as where any pre-existent boundaries might remain from yesterday.  In general then, the storms will act almost as unpredictably as creeping charlie over taking a well manicured lawn  with the 'weeds' taking the path of least resistance to areas most favorable for further growth.

THURSDAY:  The 06z run of the Global Forecast System (at least) has shifted its tune slightly for future days. It no longer was so absolute  about forcing activity Thursday through Sunday completely to the west side of the state but seemed to be raising a middle ground with a more southerly to light and variable flow pattern which favored just about anywhere in the mid-late afternoon to early evening away from the coasts (however, the 06z run can have some notoriously off kilter output, so this is questionable) . There still appears one day might be a tad drier than the others and that one is Saturday (somewhere over South Central Florida perhaps).

Otherwise, guidance sticks to another stronger vort lob to rotate around the low pressure area in the "Polar Vortex" region of Eastern Canada which  will deepen it southward and thus shunt the Atlantic Ridge axis south resulting in a more west to east steering come Monday through Wednesday of next week (toward the east coast for late day activity once again).

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